I made some basic updates to this model for 2023 in case anyone is interested. I’ll likely update it when we get more details on Tuesday.
Assumptions: Refreshed discount rates to reflect the new macro environment, brought target maturity date closer as FT shifts priorities. Reduced probability of a successful IPO/exit to 75%
Forward Model: Updated to reflect new pricing plans increasing revenue rates, reduced AUA estimates, especially in the bull case to reflect pared back expansion plans
Peers: refreshed data where possible, many of the private companies haven’t raised in the new environment so we don’t have accurate data for them
Sensitivity Analysis remains the useful part in my opinion to let you decide what story you are telling for FT, no changes just swapped the peers.