IMF Global financial stability report

Figure1-6.pdf (243.4 KB)

Chart 3 in page 9 indicating stocks are mispriced. UK and Germany undervalued.

Full report here


I think the question here is whether it is the UK and Germany that are “undervalued” or other equity markets that are overvalued.

From p. 11:

“Balance sheets appear strong enough
to sustain a moderate economic slowdown or a gradual
tightening of financial conditions. However, overall
debt levels and financial risk taking have increased,
and creditworthiness of borrowers has deteriorated in
the investment-grade bond and leveraged loan markets.
significant downturn or a sharp tightening of
financial conditions could lead to a notable repricing
of credit risks and strain the debt-service capacity of
indebted firms. Should monetary and financial conditions
remain easy for longer, debt will likely continue to rise
over the medium term in the absence of policy action,
raising the risk of a sharper adjustment in the future

Which is exactly what central banks are trying to do, i.e. QT. :man_facepalming: We’re in a catch 22 of 2008’s making unfortunately, and even the IMF has now admitted that. Extremely worrying.

As if by chance:

We also know what Mr Trump thinks…