John Thomas / The Mad Hedgefund Trader

Too much value not to post
Remember these insights get replaced the moment a new set of insights are sent out, so no point looking at previous posts here

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/hot-tips/

1 Like

Which is why it is nice to post screenshots of the highlights and links to the articles. :smiley:

Yesterday’s links:

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/recession-trading-taking-a-look-at-the-rom/

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/an-under-the-radar-biopharma-play/

It seems like he has changed yesterdays “under the radar biopharma” only for membership since yesterday, so here are a few screenshots:
image
image
image
image

Today:

image

image

Today’s articles are not accessible, but from the title of the last one we can probably guess that Jon is “bullish” on EV stocks


image

Any thoughts on Alnylam Pharmaceuticals? (ALNY)

3 Likes

Just the write-up he’s written on Blackstone is worthy enough.

I mean, to even have inside knowledge to that degree he’s written above on Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, is pretty awesome. To have any idea at all on investing in a bio/pharma company you’d need to value the company and find the risk/reward entry. It’s such a specialist area.

I don’t have any thoughts but it features as a top 10 holding in one of my favourite trusts EWI. Also a smaller holding in SMT. If John is backing it along with these managers then the company must have something revolutionary about it

3 Likes

Buffet is a reader of John Thomas’s market letters

4 Likes

Hmmm. Underestimating Apple?

2 Likes

He’s just shorted SPY,TLT and NVID but gone long AMZN, NFLX and DIS

2 Likes

Why did he short NVDIA when he said “it’s the one tech stock I would buy on dips” a few days ago

Not to mention saying ‘buy everything on dips’ and then shorting SPY? He’s shorting while he waits for the dip?

Quite the contradiction indeed. I’ll post the positions in the morning once they’re published

I’d guess he’s shorting in expectation of a dip to which he will then say to buy in again since he talks about this huge economic recovery. But still saying buy NVIDIA one day then shorting it the next is very contradictory lol.

Although saying that the S&P did dip towards the end of US trading today so maybe there is another dip coming lol.

What was the size of the short? Could he not be using it to hedge?

1 Like

Probably a hedge. I’ll check open positions in the morning. Should make better sense hopefully

Usually a hedge against the portfolio.

Risk On

(NVDA) 3/$495-$500 call spread
(AMZN) 3/ $2,940-$2,950 call spread
(NFLX) 3/ $510-$515 call spread

(FCX) 2/$28-$31 calls spread
(XME) 3/$31-$34 call spread
(TLT) 3/$147-$150 put spread
(TLT) 3/$146-$149 put spread
(DIS) 3/$170-$180 call spread

Risk Off

(NVDA) 3/ $590-$595 put spread
(SPY) 3/$405-$410 put spread

2 Likes

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/Webinar20210303-with-charts.pptx

3 Likes

image

image

3 Likes

Going back to the bubble indicators, any thoughts on Michael’s Howell’s price-liquidity model?

Michael Howell of Crossborder Capital Ltd. in London argues that earnings and sales multiples don’t work at a macro market level, even if they do for stockpickers. Howell points out that markets are frequently characterized by a dominant financial cycle, which, in turn, “is driven by shifts in liquidity and in investors’ risk appetite.” This leads to a search for a broad measure of liquidity; when prices are high compared to liquidity, that is a clue that risk appetite has become excessive.


On this basis, the market looked as expensive in terms of liquidity in 2000 as it did in terms of earnings, while Howell’s measure also produced a good warning that risk appetite was getting out of control before the global financial crisis eight years later. Now it suggests that global risk appetite is roughly back at the top of its range for the post-crisis decade but no more than that, even as earnings multiples suggest that the market is screeching toward a repeat of 2000.

On this view, the danger at this point isn’t of risk appetite bubbling over, but of liquidity being allowed to stop too quickly.

Commentary comes from John Authers’ newsletter in Bloomberg.

The death of passive investing sends a big message about the environment over the next three’ish years.

I swear, I’d like my time back from having to pay so much attention :sweat_smile::upside_down_face::sweat_smile:

For passive investors, it is pretty much a case of, pay into whatever is cheap that particular month and trim anything that has grown. Which is not so passive :sweat_smile:

Goodness. Come on FreeTrade, let’s get all available assets available in ISA’s and some kind of M1 style basic tools.

One thing to consider though
 Regardless of the environment, what is an active hedge fund manager going to say about passive investing? :wink:

If everyone invested passively he’d be out of business. It’s as biased as you can get!

1 Like