Moderna Inc (MRNA)

This pharma is developing a covid19 vaccine. Please add this stock before they do!

Aiming to have phase 3 results of their vaccine by june, this could be a cyclical virus that could be here for decades huge potential revenues if governments want people to be vaccinated hopefully see this added soon.

3 Likes

I looked at this at beginning if year and was hoping to invest. Is a good looking option…

1 Like

Echoing this 100%, they just released some very very promising vaccine data!

1 Like

The price has already shot up after the US government announced that they would inject $400m into the company. Secondly the company has partnered with a Swiss firm.

I had to buy through another platform in order to get it at a good price.

Freetrade = internet explorer of the trade world :frowning:

2 Likes

Lots of activity surrounding Coronavirus vaccine, etc

Moderna’s Covid jab shows 94.5% efficacy in clinical trials.

“Moderna also said it expected its vaccine to remain stable when refrigerated at between 2C and 8C for 30 days, significantly longer than the BioNTech-Pfizer shot, which can survive in a normal fridge for only up to five days and must otherwise be stored at minus 75C.”

2 Likes

Here’s the announcement:

3 Likes

I’ve not really paid attention to Moderna or the vaccine makers but is this actually a value play?

They have $18.4b in orders for this year (700m-1b capacity at $25-35 per shot). In their YE presentation they forecast 80% gross margin. Lets be conservative and say they only manage 700m, which would be $17.5b, another $100m of Collaboration revenue, and a 75% GM as a result of less utilised capacity = $13.2b. Then they expect Q1 OpEx rising in the “low double digit percentage range”, which I’m taking to mean 10-30%, but again lets be conservative and say 35% for the whole year = $2.1b. So an operating profit of $11.1b (!). Using same numbers gives an EBITDA of $11.15b and after-tax profit of around $9.3b, or just over $23/share. So MRNA is trading at a forward P/E of just 6, I had to double check my figures but this is actually true.

I checked peers: BioNTech/Novavax are at slightly higher fwd PEs yet still sub 10. CureVac is at 32x and only has one candidate past phase 1 trials! Additionally, while they all have an extensive pipeline a significant proportion are collaborations, whilst MRNA only has two cancer vaccines with a 50:50 profit share. The closer peer is actually Regeneron imo as only 10/37 candidates in their pipeline are collaborations. They trade at a current PE of 15.5 and a fwd one of 10.5. And remember only two of these are making mRNA products, BioNTech and CureVac. mRNA is now widely seen as the future of cutting-edge vaccine development, and there are significant barriers to entry for existing manufacturers used to recombinant/inactivated etc biology.

Just staying on SARS-COV-2, we know AstraZeneca is having serious issues, Pfizer cannot be widely distributed in many countries. J&J is being investigated for clots as well. There are very few others. Meanwhile MRNA is expanding capacity to between 1.4-2b doses in 2022 depending on the the size of the booster. This also isn’t priced into the stock whatsoever because analysts only expect $13.5b in sales that year. I’ve not even talked about their many other candidates in phase 2 trials, including a Cytomegalovirus vaccine, cancer vaccine and Ovarian carcinoma therapy which all use their now proven technology. I mean just their cancer vaccines and ischemia therapeutic alone could be absolutely massive.

Idk but to me this seems like it should be trading at 20x earnings easy, a mulit-year hold with a high chance of a big pharmaceutical realising they need mRNA to survive and paying a colossal premium to acquire. There will be more pandemics and Moderna’s technology will be vital in bringing rapid vaccines online so its seems pretty safe to me. Obviously a bit strange to say a $56b company is undervalued but obligatory mention of TSLA…except this has even better fundamentals! What are people’s thoughts? I’d say BioNTech also look like a very good play but they’re slightly more expensive, have more profit shares as I outlined above, and more aggressive analyst forecasts (2021 and even 2022 EPS is optimistic for BNTX and conservative for MRNA).

2 Likes

The company’s said this study sets the stage for additional clinical trials that will seek to refine and extend the approach, with the long-term goal of creating a safe and effective HIV vaccine. As a next step, the collaborators are partnering with the biotechnology company Moderna to develop and test an mRNA-based vaccine that harnesses the approach to produce the same beneficial immune cells. According to the team, using mRNA technology could significantly accelerate the pace of HIV vaccine development, as it did with vaccines for COVID-19.

Looks promising!

Wow, I might have buy in now before ATH. They even explicitly mentioned how they aren’t interested in viral vector and will only be focusing in mRNA.

1 Like

Well I guess my question got answered.

This is undoubtedly a good thing but does mean the lower valuations of vaccine producers were warranted. Sold at a small profit because I thought this would happen eventually.