Molten Ventures - GROW - Share Chat

Stock Discussions
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I think your post is very reasonable. GROW is not an investment trust and therefore I don’t view its value equal the sum total of the valuations of the companies it has in its portfolio. Thus, the term ‘discount’ used by the poster you are responding** to is an inappropriate term here.

In fact the venture capital model assumes most of its investments don’t pull through. The hope is that just a few of the investments make so much of a difference that they ‘wipe out’, and then some more, the losses of the others.

** I see the person has now deleted his post.

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66

hey @Ogwoo

No need to delete your post; I used to think the same as you when I first invested in Molten Ventures (Draper Esprit as it was then).

Investing, like anything else, is a journey of understanding and learning.

I’m still very much a novice compared to many on here.

All the best

John

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67

This went up around 25% in the last day or so - anyone know why?

68

No idea, but I won’t be getting too excited yet.

See the price chart - a downward trend with a few 20%+ uplifts along the way.

I won’t be interested until it hits the 400p mark

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Thanks all, appreciate the comments! Didn’t delete due to that, rather I wanted to change how my name was appearing :joy:.

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70

Becoming interesting? :smiley:

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71

Getting there. It’s on an open Google Finance tab on my laptop, along with a couple of others.

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72

Huge down move this morning. Keep track of the news if you’ve got this in the portfolio

73

Several of their portfolio companies bank with Silicon valley bank.

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74

Some interesting points made

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75

Screenshot_20240129-165826
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I thought this was Freetrades graphs being buggy at market close, but there’s hope for a nice SP rise into the close

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76

Molten shares rallied more than 6%, or 14p, to 240p yesterday after the company said in a full-year trading update that its total portfolio value at 31 March was expected to have been £1.377bn, up from £1.299bn a year ago.

However, the company guided investors to expect net asset value (NAV) excluding debt of 661p per share, a 15.2% decline over the year and a 10.1% drop in the second half.

This leaves the shares 64% below NAV, the widest discount among listed growth capital funds where the average discount is currently 38%.

That’s quite some NAV discount…

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77

Yikes! There may be money to be made but such a wide discount always rings alarm bells for me.

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78

I guess when most of their holdings aren’t listed the NAV doesn’t actually mean all that much.

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79

:scream: What are you suggesting about the good and honest profession that is accounting!??!

But I am having the same thoughts as you though but with regards to my holdings in HydrogenOne Capital Fund HGEN which is also heavily down against its NAV.

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80

These sorts of esoteric trusts are rarely a good idea.

I try to remind myself of this every time I get a bright idea about investing in narrow trusts covering helium, hydrogen, song royalties, forests and so on.

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81

I’m still holding a bunch of shares in this, hopeful that the NAV discount makes them attractive to a bigger fish.

Measuring NAV of private illiquid startups is a black box. For example, in their latest report, Molten value their stake in Graphcore at £21M, whereas Sequoia completely wrote off their stake in Graphcore in 2023.

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82

Something similar happened with AVI taking a relatively big stake in CHRY recently.

As you rightly say, the issue with private equity is the veracity of valuations.

I hold a couple of private equity trusts and I like to see them realising investments, which gives me some confidence in their valuation processes.

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From the oak Bloke

I assume this is the company that this thread is about?

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Not read

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