Shopify (SHOP) 🛒 - Share Chat

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If they pull this off…

Big.

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What do we think now of this one? Future good prospects?

I’m bullish on Shopify, it’s a good business and they seem to be innovating more than others in that space.

Their enterprise e-commerce offerings are good too and some big brands I work with have started using them recently.

The shares aren’t cheap but there’s much more to come from this company I think.

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Shopify will enable its users to sell nfts as part of its offering.

This is big - a potentially massive crypto on-ramp and demonstrates the grasp they have for the community building, loyalty and reward mechanics that nfts can introduce

Shopify is looking good for starting a new position.

Q4 results in 2 days, which will (hopefully) be positive.

Downsides are Q3 results are in yearly decline and so are referrals.

Anyone have anything to add?

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1600->840 for 3months

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I really like shopify but haven’t looked at the numbers to decide if I like the price.

That’s a good price given it was very high for a long time. I’ve been lurking this stock for a while but did not look it up lately. The business model is sound, there is a large customer base so I think it is worth investing at the right price. I think the low price has partially to do with the general market sentiment.

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Even better price now!

Is there a bull case for $SHOP as no doubt Sasha Yanshin has put out a bear case for it

I’ll caveat this with: I’m not familiar with Sasha Yanshin so I’ve watched their video without any of the context you might have about how they approach their analysis. Additionally, I do not hold any position directly in Shopify (but I am a happy customer).

I don’t think they would characterise what Sasha shared as a bear case, rather, it’s a commentary on market reaction.

A key to remember is that business performance does not drive share price, market sentiment drives share price: a bunch of negative analyses based on a surprising balance sheet could sway market sentiment in the short term, but it doesn’t speak to the long term prospects of the business.

I remember a few years ago when Facebook Dating was announced, Match.com – which had experienced strong growth prior – lost ~30% overnight, and yet here we are a couple of years later, Match.com has seen a ~100% increase since then and Facebook Dating is, well, it’s Facebook Dating.

Sasha specifically speaks to the amount of time it takes for an advertising dollar to be returned, and provides Fiverr as an example of a business that is doing better than Shopify in that regard. However, that’s not a particularly important measure, nor is it particularly relevant to a business like Shopify, especially when we consider that not all dollars spent are equal and Shopify’s customers are not homogenous. LTV is a far more important metric: consider Gymshark as a fantastic example of the growth a single Shopify customer can experience, and how that translates for Shopify… Fiverr on the other hand, their growth potential for a single customer is probably a few hundred dollars in additional revenue.

As an example of how these increasing costs could be a good sign, Shopify could have determined that if they onboard a store onto the platform that already has at least $10k in revenue then there is an 80% chance that the customer will go on to have a LTV (LifeTime Value) of at least $100,000. Shopify could then spend more on a per-customer basis in the short term, but reap huge benefits over the long term, so much so that it would be obvious to increase per-customer costs. If you’re Shopify and you’re getting more and more confident you can identify prospects with a high LTV, and keep them once they’re onboarded because the platform is getting stickier and stickier, you’re going to go all in, because that’s a huge competitive advantage.

Anyway, this isn’t intended to be a bull case per-se, rather, it’s intended to reject increasing costs as the foundation of a bear case. The bull case for Shopify doesn’t need to be more complicated than “Shopify own the majority of ecommerce infrastructure and ecommerce is the future”. I do not actively invest so this is mostly a worthless sentiment, but if I did actively invest, and I had a multi-year horizon, Shopify would be a no-brainer.

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I’m surprised more hasn’t been mentioned about Shopifys partnership with JD.com.

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China E-Commerce Market a Boon for Retailers:

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Full story:

Somebody fat fingered a $100B company minutes before the closing or is this a glitch?

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Odd! Check out the post trading price too! :thinking:

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I think this will ‘correct’ at market opening on Monday … unfortunately :rofl:

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Probably a short squeeze.