Tesla Inc - TSLA - Share Chat

Interesting seeing these neural networks. A real breakthrough will come when they can learn how to learn, i.e. the network can recognise a type of dog from looking at just 3 images, instead of thousands, similar to how a human would process the information.

Yeah it was. I think the real CA I got from Tesla here, apart from Andre’s three pillars, is that thanks to the fleet they can immediately source a cost free, real world image of say, a tyre, analyse and train it, then find similar images to further improve the NN.

Tesla likes to claim that they’re leading in self-driving development, but I’ve seen people saying a few times that it’s Alphabet and GM that are most advanced. I’m holding all 3 stocks in the app anyway.

In terms of disengagements per mile (basically the number of time the real driver has to take over because it stops or does something stupid) Tesla isn’t even in the top ten at the moment. Waymo (google) is top

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Yeah, this article says it all: Waymo Tops Self-Driving Car ‘Disengagement’ Stats As GM Cruise Gains And Tesla Is AWOL

Waymo only disengaged once every 11,000 miles, crazy. I’m also not convinced by Tesla’s arguments on why cameras are better than lidar, it seems like all other companies are using lidar. Musk said at one point lidar is ‘doomed’.

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I mean this is the thing. We are actually years from FSD and Tesla seem to want to rush it out and be the first. The timetable for rollout and figures they gave for the ridesharing are…interesting.

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Official statement from NVIDIA:

Jesus wept, this is going to be a long week with Q1 earnings, only Monday night…

Link seems to be gone now, here is most of it, that was really interesting and worth watching whatever you think of musk. Not your standard investor briefing.

The talk by Andrej Karpathy is really interesting on machine learning applied to self driving, and musk outlines his vision of a fleet of self-driving robotaxis without controls (‘we’ll just delete the steering wheel’, he says at one point).

I do believe autonomous cars are the future in the next 5-10 years, and will wipe out the likes of Uber and Lyft, but whether Tesla will manage it or die trying is hard to say. The hard part is autonomous cars though, not a taxi app.

Musk reminds me of Jobs in so many ways - able to attract, inspire and retain global talent, and drive them to sacrifice everything for him. I’d wager he even believes his own myths at times. I think he wants to push it faster than is safe as he sees it is a winner takes all market - robotaxis are a huge area Tesla could dominate if they are first. Unsurprisingly he generates vitriol and admiration in equal measure - both to some extent justified.

Waymo is doing a very different thing with limited miles, expensive heavily instrumented cars, and trained drivers. I’m not surprised their numbers are radically different given Tesla is trying to test with real customers. Are they google now or independent? It’ll be interesting to see them scale up, they should at least rival Tesla and are aimed at a very lucrative market that could replace personal cars completely.

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Would recommend having a read of ARK investment management’s views on autonomy and Tesla, website and twitter :slight_smile:

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It’s really good that Ark publish their analytical models eg https://ark-invest.com/research/autonomous-taxi-model .

But I am wary that they’re quite cheerleadery for Elon. Tesla have been saying they’re two years away from full autonomy for many years now it seems. I’m still a skeptic and don’t hold the stock.

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Tesla annual shareholders meeting. Live now

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Surprising revelation following the last question on the Q&A:
Tesla has a design for a submarine car

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image

Tesla Second Quarter 2Q 2019 earnings update - $TSLA is operating cash flow positive :eyes:. Model 3 is very very popular, as also witnessed during the trips to the US.

Saw one Model 3 being driven around Central London today. Personally, have received an invitation to customize my Model 3 after a pre-order years ago—will buy shares in TSLA instead as I don’t need a car (full disclosure: not a long-term shareholder yet, would not buy to do short-term trading).

Model 3: In Q2, Model 3 deliveries reached an all-time record of 77,634. Not only was Model 3 once again the best-selling premium vehicle in the US, outselling all of its gas-powered equivalents combined, this product also gained traction in other markets. In Europe, Model 3 is approaching sales levels of established premium competitor
(from https://ir.tesla.com/static-files/1e70a30c-20a7-48b3-a1f6-696a7c517959)

In machine learning of today, data and compute power are a king and a queen. Some of the most popular computer vision/deep learning algorithms used in production are not new. Karpathy taught CV at Stanford and has worked at Goog/OpenAI and is considered to be a very cool guy among ML researchers, I have been to one of his lectures on reinforcement learning.

$TSLA are miles ahead in terms of R&D both in terms of software and access to batteries. It also has to be noted that the CTO has just left after 15 years.

If all this sounds familiar, it’s because this is how Tesla operates. Since 2016, automaker, working with Panasonic, has been building its own batteries at its Gigafactory outside Reno, Nevada. Last year, it hit a production rate that, if kept up for a year, would have made 20 gigawatt-hours of battery power—enough for 200,000 top-of-the-line, 100-kWh Tesla cars.

A car giant such as Volkswagen, in comparison, has battery challenges for its e-car push:

Access to vast amounts of batteries to power a growing number of electric vehicles has emerged as a new battleground for global automakers amid capacity constraints, supply bottlenecks and limited access to raw materials. Producing batteries safe to use in cars is more complex than the technology used for consumer electronic devices like smartphones.

Maybe it’s time to start a battery start-up.

CNBC:

“Lithium is pretty much hitting a wall right now. If you really want to increase energy density, you have to go to a completely different paradigm,” said Yifei Mo, a materials science and engineering professor at the University of Maryland. More energy density means cheaper, lighter batteries that last longer on a single charge.
…
One new battery technology is solid-state, which replaces not only the graphite anode with one made up of lithium metal but also the liquid electrolyte and separator with one solid piece, usually ceramic, glass or flame-retardant polymer. Taking this approach is Solid Power, a Colorado-based manufacturer of solid-state batteries that received $20 million in Series A financing in 2018. According to company executives, the battery they’re developing leads to at least 50 percent more energy density.

Secretive Stanford University spinoff QuantumScape is also developing a solid-state battery, in partnership with Volkswagen. Last year Volkswagen increased its stake with a $100 million investment. PitchBook data shows the San Jose-based start-up has a valuation of $1.75 billion. According to a [press release announcing the deal, QuantumScape’s battery would allow Volkswagen’s E-Golf to travel 466 miles — its current range is 186 miles — on a single charge, making it comparable to ranges achieved by conventional gas-powered vehicles. According to Volkswagen, QuantumScape’s battery should be faster-charging and much lighter than current lithium-ion batteries.

Investing in $TSLA is for risk takers.

Disclosure: do not own and never owned shares in $TSLA yet.

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@anon810895 Can you pls merge this thread with the main Tesla thread: Tesla Inc - TSLA - Share Chat - #334 by Freetrade_Team1

VW’s main EV offering that’s already in production is full of bugs.

Only a few weeks after the first reports about massive software problems with the VW ID.3, Manager Magazin in Germany claims that many problems are still not solved and new ones keep popping up. The publication quotes VW experts, who are saying that the basic architecture of the software was developed “too hastily”. As a result, many system parts do not understand each other, which leads to dropouts.

“Hundreds of test drivers”, who collect kilometres in the evening and at night, reported new bugs regularly, some employees mentioned up to 300 bugs in a single day. Every morning around 50 and up to 100 technology and software experts meet to discuss the latest problems. This crisis has prompted Manager Magazine to title their report: “Showdown in Hall 74,” after Hall 74 where these daily meetings are held. The dramatic headline is underlaid with pessimistic internal scenarios that assume a delay of up to twelve months.

Garbage in, garbage out.

If you want buy an EV and have money for a Model 3, it’s probably safer to buy a Tesla.

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And Team Musk is working on that - from the recent post:

Battery Day should be April time - Coronavirus permitting.

Be interesting to see developments.

This what I throw my kids money in each month…It’s been building up nicely.

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Any opinions on a fair price for this at the minute? Obviously share price has dropped over last week or 2 but with such a meteoric rise hard to see much value and when you compare share price to 3/6 months ago.