I am not sure anyone knows what the fair value is for Tesla at the moment. Looking at fundamentals, their share pride was totally divorced from reality, but then you can argue that they can disrupt a whole industry so what value do you put on that?
I think it more depends on your own personal believe in how successful they may be at dominating electrical cars and what not in years to come. I have been sitting on the sidelines, I missed the initial rally and after that to me personally it felt that their price as based on what the idiot was prepared to pay for it, and many paid over the odds due to FOMO.
Teslaâs first Master Plan focused on the acceleration of the transition to sustainable mobility through electric cars.
In 2016, Tesla released their Master Plan Part Deux. And, by design, it was no longer a car company. It was from that point on a company focused on the transition to sustainable energy.
I am sensible to those who argue that Tesla is, ultimately, a software company. A software company that makes its own hardware.
Apple can also be seen as a software company that builds its own hardware. Namely desktops, smartphones, tablets and other devices. The price ranges of Appleâs hardware can go from just under ÂŁ100 to several thousands.
Teslaâs hardware has higher price ranges in comparison. Cuz theyâre different products after all. Their hardware include, not only vehicles used to transport goods and people, but also both energy production and energy storage devices.
On the energy production side, Tesla offers solar based solutions. On the storage side: batteries. Both static and mobile batteries. As static batteries we have things like the Powerwall, Powerpack or the Megapack. As mobile batteries Tesla have an increasing diversified range of, wait for it⌠cars. Teslaâs cars are not only cars, but batteries on wheels. And if that was not enough they are also software carriers and data gatherers and feeders on wheels. So much so that Tesla is now entering the insurance business.
[Edit 1:] Enough whining.
What will this move imply for the insurance sector? How will Tesla go about it? I donât know if this move will have an impact as disruptive as the choice for a direct sales approach had for the legacy distribution model. But will have impact. And I wouldnât be surprised if other car manufacturers ended up replicating it as soon as they collect sufficient data, which would increase the impact. This is obviously speculative. And so it is what follows. In order to offer its own insurance Tesla may need to partner up with some re-insurance provider, at least at the beginning. Nonetheless, I wouldnât be surprised at all if in the near to mid term E. Musk were to announce Tesla acquired an insurtech. Why? Well, they did buy Maxwell and Hibar despite their partnership with Panasonic didnât they?! Same principle applies. The question is, will Tesla want to go into the re-insurance business too? In any case, it can become a strong revenue stream for Tesla, providing what W. Buffett calls float, that then Musk can re-invest in the business.
And then, thereâs the Automation, robo-taxi services thay may arrive one day as we can see in @engineer post. If sucessful⌠OMG. [End of Edit 1]
[Edit 2:] I see E. Musk building a mixed conglomerate with integrated components. These components can work together as a team, despite and because they pursuit different but complementary purposes. In five to ten years, I see changes in the corporate structure with the creation of an umbrella company, under which weâll find Tesla, Space X, The Boring Co, Starlink and the ones to come. Think of Google becoming Alphabet. Apart from Tesla all other Muskâs ventures are privately held. I donât see an impediment for such a structure. It is possible he has organised himself in such a fashion. I donât think this would impact Teslaâs price or value as a public company, but hey anything can happen. But I do see Musk, in the mid to long term, as CEO of the umbrella company, with several COOâs appointed as soon as the companies reaches cruise speed. Donât forget I may be mistaken please. [End of Edit 2]
I believe you get the picture. I am going to stop now because I just want to cry for I donât have enough money to buy Teslaâs shares and for that reason Iâm not a shareholder, hence I donât have skin in the game. But if you ask me if I consider the stock to be cheap, expensive or just right, my answer couldnât be more clear than this: I donât have the foggiest idea
I know itâs a bit of hyperbole to say X Company is really a software company. To be honest they are obviously doing both software and hardware to a great extent and the value of their proprietary technology is probably not heavily one way or the other, theyâre innovating in both regards.
I have no idea right now either nor do I think the market is a good guide on that but it seems to me the risks to Tesla for this year (market and execution risks) are not currently priced in, and it is an extremely volatile stock. If you are buying for ten years and willing to put up with massive volatility I wouldnât worry too much as they have so much room to grow and are continuing to execute well.
I sold when it went vertical but plan to buy in again this year, waiting till after Q1 results and the coronavirus panic to do so.
To me itâs more that Tesla is a tech company, by which I mean they build throw-away prototypes, iterate quickly, are not attached to traditional methods or materials, recognise the importance of software and are determined to grow at all costs. So more like Google than GE.
While these habits are common in the software industry Tesla is predominantly a hardware company building batteries, solar roofs and cars and I donât think software is their most important innovation.
Excited to see where they take Tesla next - I have a feeling they will be seen less and less as a car company over the years to come.
thank you. all the articles said they announced to raise, but I am curious to know if they have actually closed the raise successfully. Nonetheless, perfect timing for Musk.
Model Y is a roomier Model 3 but not as expensive as the other SUV (Model X).
In California - where the deliveries usually start for new Teslas, at least historically - itâd be hard to leave home to pick up a new gadget after the âshelter in placeâ order was announced effective today (Tuesday). Palo Alto (where the Tesla HQ is) and many areas around it are work from home zones with many businesses closed.
Not sure about Fremont, where the local factory is across the bay, but a lot of folks might not be able to leave homes to take their (second, third?) Tesla cars for a spin. This does not mean that they are cancelling their orders.
The roll-out of new models around Palo Alto/Fremont in California could be important for Tesla because these Model Ys are probably not 100% âstableâ with all the new software and hardware. California residents become unofficial testers and âreportâ all the bugs back to HQ before the deliveries begin elsewhere. So letâs call them RC1 or Alpha stage cars. But, given than underneath each Model Y itâs mostly a Model 3, there shouldnât be as many reported issues as there were with 3.
Also, Telsa may have perfected the skill of testing new cars in other parts of the States too before a global roll-out.
If you are wondering why Tesla is hell bent on building in ChinaâŚread this article:
Chinaâs government helped the California-based carmaker secure the sought-after supplies that allowed it to reopen at a time when many of its competitors were still shut down. Tesla received 10,000 masks, cases of disinfectant that require a government permit, thermometers and other materials that allowed the company to restart its factory near Shanghai the first working day after the extended Lunar New Year break, according to state-run media.
Iâm not sure the situation in the US has bottomed out yet, things will get worse still for a week or two at least in terms of deaths unfortunately till they really lock down and test more and the market wonât recover till there are signs it is under control. I just hope that is soon.
Tesla is an interesting case as this will weaken competitors but could also hit their demand for a year if the downturn becomes entrenched so they may take a while to recover.
Interesting also to consider what people would think of the price if that huge spike up in the graph has not taken place.
