The S&P 500 “Market Bottom” Sweepstakes

Just for a bit of fun on this serious last few weeks.

Everyone loves being a Monday morning quarterback it seems with regards to what’s happening in the markets, here’s your chance so we can look back and not have the “aw I predicted that bla bla bla” :smile:

What date do you reckon we see the S&P 500 bottom out?

I’m going to go for April 8th for the bottom.


Going for 1st April, for no other reason than that it’s Fools day and it seems appropriate. :laughing:

I suspect we won’t have hit bottom by then though…

April 23rd. S&P 500 @ 2328 points.

Hmm, this year I reckon probably it’ll start to bounce back early May, so local bottom for this year perhaps in a month or two as the market looks forward to stimulus and business as usual resuming.

Then I’m not so sure it won’t take another dip after a few months and head into a bear market, since the world was already heading toward recession before this shock and the rolling shut downs, mass firings and drops in orders/bookings are going to hit a huge number of industries over several quarters. The most hopeful case is that all the consumption is just delayed and starts to pick up again soon, but I’m feeling sort of pessimistic and feel the impact might be more prolonged, so I reckon bottom for the next bear market sometime around Jan 2022 or so. I really hope not though.

  • So 1st May 2020 for the bottom this year followed by a swift bounce back up near the ATH
  • Jan 2022 for the second bottom after the bear market really kicks in
1 Like

The average bear market lasts 367 days. I’m intrigued as to why you think it could last until Jan 2022?

Others are saying in 2-3 weeks so could go either way. I would say maybe June.

Let a random date generator choose my date for me, having set it to pick any date from the next 12 months:

3 June 2020

Figured I might as well test the theory that one has as much luck getting the market right from chance as from trying to carefully calculate it :slight_smile:

1 Like

1st June 2020

Firstly, I should say this is just a bit of fun, not serious analysis!

I probably wasn’t clear, what I was trying to say was we might see a quick recovery over 6 months say, followed by a bear market for a year or so up to the start of 2022 As the depth of the economic damage sinks in and the virus surges again.

As far as history goes 1929,2000,2007 took a couple of years from memory from ATH to the nadir, these things tend to take a while to work through.

1 Like

For fun only.

What if today 13.03.2020 is the bottom and then we washout again near these levels again sometime in April to propel the next rally?

There is always something coincidental around the 2nd week of March, it’s the bottom of 2008 crash - March.2009

It was also the bottom of 2000 dot-com crash - March.2003

Only we’re faster this time due to technology and HFT.

1 Like

You are all way too early…
The Covid-19 virus will be swamping our healthcare system for around 6 months. The country will be on lock down for most of that time. The effect on the US will be far worse. The rest of the world will be in a similar position. Thoes that lock down too severely will get a second peak once they release the restrictions. If the second peak happens in the winter months their healthcare systems will collapse.

I recon the global markets will bottom out on July 23rd 2020

1 Like