Thanks Lewis! Re: Monzo and other challenger banks entering the USā¦ unclear. Weāve looked at this a bit at Wave. The issue is regulatory barriers for new banks is SO much harder in the US than the UK. Which is why most new finch companies getting started here in the US arenāt technically ābanksā (e.g. Robinhood, etc). Some people are thinking that by starting in the UK and getting established itāll then be easier for challenger banks to hop across the pond to the US. But Iāll believe US regulators allowing that when it actually happens, haha.
This is going to sound very boring, but I think with the āplatform warsā being settled for now, itās a lot about bringing technology that we all take for granted to multi-billion dollar industries that are late adopters.
We had a trillion dollars of value created by the PC, the internet, and mobile. Iām not sure another one is going to happen in the next 5 years. BUT - if you look at businesses like Convoy, Flexport, and even Airbnb to some extent, thereās a ton of āobjects in the real worldā businesses that are going to see lower transaction costs and reduced friction due to industry-specific technology creating new value.
I donāt know a ton here, but my answer is, āvery very earlyā. I also think itās important to remember that there is HUGE capex costs in rolling out 5G since they are all new antennas and need to be much denser than previous iterations of the technology, so itās going to take forever to pay back the investment.
And geopolitically, I donāt know
Amazing story. Howās the lifestyle in Seattle compared to the Bay Area? Are you guys more relaxed, hanging out at Starbucks?
Iāve spent some time in San Francisco when I worked at Google in the ancient times.
I was just chatting about this with friends today. Americans love their credit cards, and Monzo doesnāt have one in the UK. Itās not their core competence. There might be a product barrier for Monzo as well.
Ye thatās why Iām looking at the Tower REITās as well
Biased here, but itās fantastic. Thereās an enormous amount of smart tech people from the 2 most valuable companies in the world (Amazon, Microsoft), but on the other hand, thereās a lot of other stuff too. If you walk into a coffee shop, you are unlikely to hear 3 conversations about raising a seed round.
That said, I also love the bay area, and thereās no denying the one-of-a-kind value that the network effects and density of talent bring.
Loving the idea of having tech around, but also not living in a bubble. London is that kind of place, although can be a little frantic.
Haha, love this!
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Basically the same as I do now, except Iād buy a Tesla and stay at nicer places when we go on vacation. Stewart Butterfield had a great quote on this: The 3 Levels of Wealth
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Plan not to have kids. Then push myself and my partners at Wave to invest in a couple more companies per year. Worry less about deal price and more about intrinsic motivations of the founders. There is nothing more fulfilling than working side-by-side with great entrepreneurs to make a dent in the world. (I assume outside of raising children ā obviously I donāt have those yet!)
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That we didnāt get to record more Acquired episodes. Just kiddingā¦ I honestly donāt think Iād have any major ones. If I hadnāt married my wife or left my previous venture firm to start Wave those would have been the biggest.
Great question. The whole venture model is really predicated on asking the very question, āWhy is it okay to take a loss right now?ā
Almost all venture-backed companies arenāt generating enough free cash flow (if any), so they raise money to be able to operate in the red b/c thereās a pot of gold at the end.
The conditions required to allow this are:
- The market will be enormous in the future
- We need to grow as quickly as possible to beat competitors
- Especially if there is a winner-take-all dynamic
- We will be very profitable eventually
It is a newer phenomenon for this to extend into āmatureā companies, especially ones that go public. Effectively, it is just the public joining in on the speculation that private investors have been doing for a long time, and she same sort of analysis should be applied.
That said, thereās generally less growth available after a company is mature (great would be doubling every year, whereas a startup you want to triple or quadruple every year), so investors should also be mindful that the growth rates will continue to decline in the future.
When they go public or get acquired!
Will you chaps do any topical series again, similar to the Chinese tech companies?
If yes, what would be the topic? I hope fintech.
If you are accredited, there are lots of startups in the podcasting space! Glow.fm is doing monetization, Chartable is doing analytics, there are many content houses, and companies like Breaker are tackling improving the player.
If you are looking to invest in public companies, there isnāt a āpure playā that I know of. Here are some companies that have āpodcast exposureā in their basket of business lines.
- Spotify is getting more an more into podcasting, and accounts for 5-10% of podcast listening right now
- Apple is reportedly financing original shows
- I Heart Media is doing a lot in podcasting, and just went public
That said, I think itās too small of a slice of any of these businessās āpiesā right now to make that a reasonable thing to bet on.
On your own investing-related podcast, itās noisy out there, so Iād make sure you have a āhookā on the format or unique access to information or guests thatāll get people to pay attention!
Thank you for these insights and the advice on my investig podcast idea!
Do you see any submarines capable to attack big tech aircraft carriers?
Sorry for probably taking this militaristic metaphor too far.
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If you have a dream you want to pursue, the younger you are when you start pursuing it, the longer runway youāll have to maximize its realization (or more succinctly: āthe best time to plant a tree was 30 years ago. the second-best time is todayā)
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China is by far the most impressive. Iāve been blown away by what weāve seen and learned since we started covering the Chinese tech ecosystem on Acquired.
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I was very bearish on the whole ~Sonder idea of taking out leases and repurposing them into something else. Time will tell whoās right in the longterm, but for now I look wrong.
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I think AI displacement is way overhyped, and it will be a long time still before most human jobs in vehicle driving, factories, etc disappear. E.g., see Teslaās fiasco trying to automate Model 3 production.
Marketplaces, obviously! http://wave.capital
Specifically I think weāre still early innings of bringing internet-scale connectivity to most economic markets. E.g., Waveās latest investment in Quoteapro, which is a tech-enabled brokerage for the global scrap metal recycling industry: https://quoteapro.com
My $0.02 having moved from Seattle to SF two years ago to start Wave: Ben is pretty spot on, Seattle is truly an excellent balance of lifestyle and tech ecosystem. That said the Bay Area has two advantages I donāt think will change anytime soon:
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itās still the very best place in the world to shoot for the moon (maybe with the exception of China). You can still show up here as a nobody, be willing to work your ass off, and the world will open up to you faster than you can imagine. Itās hard as hell, but itās possible. Thatās generally less true in Seattle.
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the weather.