Read this from @Rollingskies , very interesting and takes this thinking to the extreme.
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The only time that there isnāt someone saying that the market is due to crash is when it is already crashingā¦ and thatās the problem with trying to time the market: when do we make that move to cash, and when do we step back in? Weāll only know if those moves were sensible in hindsight.
Statistically I believe weāre better off staying invested even when the market is going down, but that is a really hard thing to do when you see you portfolio diminishing, particularly if youāre looking at it every day.
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Iām currently picking individual stocks, trying to find value and efficiencies.
If there was a market correction, wouldnāt that be the best time to buy a market covering ETF? As literally everything is on sale I would get cheap, diversified coverage at the best prices.
I would bypass the ācatching the falling knifeā risk and I could pound cost average all the way through the market recovery.
I was wondering, would this work in principle or is there something Iām missing?
The problem with trying to time the bottom is you donāt know if itās the bottom til after
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My thinking is that, I wouldnāt need to know if we are currently at the bottom. I just need to know that the whole market is at its lowest point over a rolling 12 month period for example.
Surely at these times, there is more value and risk for an individual stock picker. So these times would be optimal for buying vwrl, etc. Maximising value, minimising risk.
So each month I usually buy a selection of individual stocks, then when the market is low, I buy the etfs. If the market keeps falling lower, I keep buying etfs.
Does that sound logical?
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Your not missing anything, of course buying in the dips is more beneficial, the main point I am making is that itās difficult to time the market and, in my opinion, itās better to be in the market than not. Sitting on money hoping for a crash for 5-10 years could be as risky if it doesnāt happen or is much smaller than you hoped.
Iām not sure I am connecting your logic regarding stock picking at highs and etfs at lows. I would say stock picking has the higher risk/reward at market highs and lows if you find the right or wrong stocks. And ETFs will generally spread the risk regardless too. If you buy a stock or etf at a market low itās potentially good value. Interested to know more though if you can articulate it.
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Well my portfolio is mainly ETFs anyway so we differ on our approaches to begin with 
For sake of argument you hold off buying an ETF until it falls. In the meantime it increases by 20% over a couple of years. Then thereās a correction and it drops 15% so you buy. You are worse off having waited then if you invested to begin with.
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Yeah I definitely agree being in the market is better than not being in at all, if you have long term goals.
But to my laymen eyes etfs donāt seem to be the be all and end all. My reasoning being that they are average, so performing slightly better than average must be possible (the inverse also being true). Beating an etf is also slightly easier due to the fees. FYI I donāt hate etfs, I have some in my portfolio.
In effect my monthly stock picks are my own feeless etf that is slightly tuned for a greater return (I believe).
So in answer to your example Rat_au_van where you got a 20% return with etfs, Iām trying for 25%. Then to get 15% via etfs from the crash.
Hey Jeff. I guess I mean to say that picking stocks at super low markets is beyond my personal risk tolerance. Iām still new to the investing game. So buying etfs at the lows keeps me putting money in the market rather than sitting on the side lines.
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What your doing sounds sensible and I am very new to this too. I intend for the majority of my money to be in ETFs of some kind but when I do buy a specific stock I personally think less about if itās at a 1-5 year low and more do I think the company is going to be around doing bigger better things in 20 years. It all depends on each of our time horizons. Wish you luck and coming into here testing ideas is great 
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Thank you @Rat_au_van and @Jeff, really helped.
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Thanks @Jeff. Iām sure itās probably wiser to just pick etfs tbh. But I need to get burned to learn. Better to do that early on 
I agree on not picking individual stocks just because theyāre low. I go by the fundamentals myself.
Good luck to you too
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Yes, but the strategy that gets you higher than the average in some years, will get you lower than the average other years. And since such strategies have higher dealing costs than just buying a single low cost ETF, over the long term youāll end up doing worse than the average.
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Hi @anon287192. I agree completely. My strategy wouldnāt be viable on most platforms. But freetrade eliminates my dealing cost. My real disadvantage is the lack of full market coverage in their stock universe.
Regarding over and under performing the market, Iām not aiming to eliminate volatility in my portfolio, just shift average return slightly above the market. I realise the odds are against me here, but Iām enjoying the attempt.
To simplify my logic, an etf captures everything. Even the obvious losers. So why donāt I just cut out these losers.
So right now Iām doing a lot research into what an āobvious loserā and āobvious winnerā look like. The caveat being that what sometimes looks a loser can generate a massive win and vice versa. So here is where I need to do thorough and likely impossible analysis so I can build a diversified portfolio of slightly above average performers
So why donāt I just cut out these losers.
If we could reliably do that, weād all be rich! Sadly, the problem is exactly identifying the winners and losers, and with markets being as unpredictable and irrational as they are, this is far harder than youāre making it out to be. Doing this is the full-time job of plenty of fund managers, and itās been shown that after fees, almost all of them (historically) fail to beat the market.
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I by no means think what Iām attempting will be easy or successful for that matter. And when it backfires Iāll go to etfs. But nothing ventured nothing gained. Even if I was successful in my endeavour for the next 10 years, it could simply be attributed to luck. But Iām keeping logs of my progress anyway and I should have decent data to review in the future. Itās a project that Iām enjoying atleast.
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Came across this chart somewhere think it starts at 1900, you can see the great Depression, WW1, WW2, Vietnam War, Dotcom bubble, 2008 Crash and many other historical dips 'n bounces. Think Iāll stick to buying the market.
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This pretty much describes what stock markets and the investment activity around them are: a machine whose participants are people and algorithms trying to work out what things should be priced at. So both reliably identifying obvious winners and losers and beating the other participants (having āedgeā) is hard.
Hi
Can anyone help me here I have just set up my account and chose the wrong one . I wanted to open the ISA how can I amend this as I canāt see anywhere on the app on my IPad to do this.
Apologies for sounding dumb
Have a look in your profile. Itās the person icon in the top right hand corner. The option to open an ISA is in there
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