I am surprised that there wasn’t much movement at closure.
How can we check the latest transactions to see if there have been big movements?
If there haven’t, then we might be seeing it on Monday.
They have been buying in big all week. The link below will show you some of the later share trades, though they are not all released at the same time so the timestamp jumps around. For example the 20.5m share, £7m buy at 1408 which wasn’t released until after market close.
There may be a drop on Monday. Equally news on 100% owned Scallywag could be released next week.
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If all the GDJX transactions have already happened then it is likely to go down on Monday.
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Thank you FreeTrade community for giving your early insights into this gold company. The only stock which I had to participate in down to the growing buzz around its progress.
I chose Greatland Gold instead of the Tesla hype.
I have sold off much of GG over 2 months, not leaving much on the table but still involved 
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You know we can see the number of shares?
Loving another 10% this week, the GGP train keeps chugging up this hill. 
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Hello everyone, frequented this forum for a while but never posted.
Am I a bit late to the game on this one, is buying in now too late?
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Of course I’m aware, just thanking the initial investors that made me aware of this gold play.
As I’ve said like 10 times now, this is a tiny holding but a good one at that.
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The shares have gone up by almost 20 times this year, so in most other stocks I’d say you may get better returns elsewhere. In this case though, I don’t intend to sell any of my shares in the short term at least and I’d expect to see £1 per share sooner rather than later.
Having said that, your time horizon is important in this as are a number of external factors, like the speed of Newcrest mining Havieron and the price of gold. The permit for the decline is already in and Newcrest need the throughout for Telfer so I expect they will continue to move with speed.
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I‘ve only been on Freetrade for the last couple of months so missed this when it was only pennies. Do people feel this is still worth a buy?
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I’m fairly certain it will gain 100% in 2021. Significant news is imminent with drill results highly anticipated.
GGP does move around. Expect 20% swings.
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I’m with you on this. I’m so confident that I’m going to allocate a considerable portion of my SIPP to it (once the Freetrade SIPP goes live!)
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Nearly 50% of my sipp is ggp. The rest diversified. I’ve already made multiple bags so I’m free riding anyway
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That is very interesting, thanks. Did you pull it together?
Credit to @ShareRisers on twitter
https://twitter.com/ShareRisers/status/1347112074913206272?s=20
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Thanks. Always looking for new sources of research.
Great piece of info. What do people think of the market cap, GGP is a clear outlier here - for a valid reason?
I find it very difficult coming up with a valid market cap for mining stocks as so many factors play a role but obviously always a little cautious if there is an anomaly.
Haven’t done any research into most of the others so I can’t tell if they are undervalued or what the difference is, genuinely interested if someone has done that piece of work.
Things we know about GGP: The 3.4 Moz will rise considerably through time, almost certainly by at least 4 fold. It will be a multidecade mine and it will be mined. The market knows this with a high degree of certainty.
I do not follow the other companies in detail, but i suspect some of the others with resource estimates may not have a clear path to mining, meaning gold is valued as ‘gold in the ground’ rather than potential profits from mining. There is a huge difference in this. Have a look at Sol Gold, they have a huge resource 20 mill oz gold +, but there is no prospect of it being mined at the moment because they cannot fund it.
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Thanks for this, yeah completely understand that just having good ‘turf’ vs actually getting the stuff out of the ground makes a huge difference:)
So based on what you said above do you think the market has already priced all of this in (e.g. the four fold increase) or do you think there is still room for the SP to factor this in in the future?
My short answer is yes there is still room, but there are a number of factors to consider and it’s also where judgement and risk management come in.
This image is the Scotiabank valuation for Newcrest mining, GGPs JV partner, which I found on twitter from @paddygall1. They have a valuation of US$7.25bn for Newcrest’s 40% share, based on the known resource at that point. A quick check on this is the resource estimate, so 3,400,000 of gold x $1,900 an ounce is US$6,460,000,000, or US$6.46bn, plus the copper of 160,000 tonnes @ US$7,000 per tonne, so US$1,120,000,000, of US$1.12bn, for a total of US$7.58bn.
What it doesn’t make clear is if the Scotiabank estimates include the cost of extraction, so this is where the judgement part comes in.
But, taking that estimate for now and working it through (well at the time I did the analysis) GGP will ultimately own 25% of the resource (Newcrest have yet to buy their final 5% though). Also, when I’d looked at it I’d used $1.33 to the £, it’s now a bit higher.
So, US$7.25bn (more conservative valuation) x 25% (GGP ownership) / 1.33 (exchange rate) = £1.362bn.
Divided by the number of shares 3,873bn gives £0.35 per share for what’s known at Havieron. Could be 4x bigger or more.
There is also the remaining 5% of the Havieron JV which Newcrest would need to buy at market value. Based on the current price that’s US$7.25bn x 5% = US$362,500,000. Take off the US$50m loan Newcrest gave GGP for their share of the development costs then it’s around £233m, or another £0.06 per share.
Havieron then is roughly 41p per share based on what we know now, but we also know that isn’t the full resource and it’s likely to be higher.
To name just a couple of the other targets, Goliath in the new de-risked JV with Newcrest has an anomaly larger than the full Havieron and could be worth the same or more. There is also Scallywag which GGP own 100% of, which could be as large as current Havieron or larger. There are also more targets.
Wildly optimistic target, though still in some ways conservative, the value per share could be Havieron £0.41, Goliath £0.41, Scallywag £1.64 (100% ownership, rather than 25% for the JVs) = £2.46, with the share price currently £0.335.
Caveats, mines take years to develop, the price of gold moves around so none of those numbers are likely to be accurate when they come online, so it’s best to factor in your time horizon and attitude to risk. You’d really need to do your own research and assign values to the targets though based on probability of striking.
Having said that if Havieron is 4x the size and Goliath and Scallywag hits, then the price should be higher. Newcrest are really keen to keep up the throughput on their Telfer processing plant, 25 miles from Havieron, so they could buy out GGP this year.
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