The question is how much more will it go up and will it hold this levels?
If it will drop again under 0.09 definitely will buy more
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When the deals is done and there dept free. 25p maybe.
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Starting to drop again, not sure if i should dump them early and jump back on when they go below 10p again. If they go below.
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Long slow drop any news out there?
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Greatland retains 30% ownership of Havieron
Further to Greatlandâs announcement of 21 July 2022, Greatland is pleased to advise that Newcrest has elected not to exercise the option under the Havieron JV agreement to acquire an additional 5% interest in the JV from Greatland at the price of US$60m determined by the independent adjudicator, which was based on data up to 15 December 2021.
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Update from Sean on proactive.
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Interesting development, especially considering GGP offered Newcrest $85m for the 5%, as I understand it.
It was Jim Mellon that got me interested in this share in the first place, from a podcast he was on a couple of years ago. Itâs a long term hold for me, with potentially adding a ÂŁ5 here and there to my holding.
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Huh. In a way Iâm happy that greatland are keeping a larger chunk of the project but this does concern me. I need to properly think about it but:
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Greatland will now likely need to raise money whereas the $60mn would have paid for a lot. Are newcrest hoping ggp will run out of money and they can swoop in cheaper or something?
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Newcrest (who know a ton more about this project than anyone else) donât believe that itâs worth $60mn. Thatâs not great!
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Not quite right, I donât think. From my reading of it, they had strict criteria to meet (âhurdlesâ) and this didnât meet those criteria.
If you are right, then it makes their decision not to accept GGPâs offer of $85m ($25m âfreeâ money), all the more baffling.
But what do I know?
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Youâre probably right. I just skimmed it this morning. Iâll have to give the RNS a proper read tonight when I get a chance 
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This is a comment from Newcrestâs Sandeep Biswas in response to a question as to why they didnât take up the 5%:
âSo as you know â well, as I said, the first 70% cost of $65 million, which is an excellent investment. And if you look at our â as Sherry alluded to, weâve got a very rigorous capital allocation program. Weâve got a lot of projects to allocate capital to. And obviously, weâve also got our shareholders to think about as well. And in that context, it didnât make the returns compared to putting that $60 million somewhere else. We didnât need to do it, and we didnât think it would deliver the sort of returns and the sort of thinking our shareholders expect from an ownerâs mindset in this company.â
So they could make a better return elsewhere. Also I believe their debt burden is way higher now than at the start of the process, and shareholders are wanting short term returns. Havieron is a 3-5 year wait (probably) from now before it starts making serious money, if it ever does. In that context, the pressure on NCM to deliver profits right now is very high. I think GGP is in a different position, where patience is needed and expected.
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Just to summarise, the response from (presumed) shareholders on the GGPChat page and on LSE board is pretty positive.
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I thought that too.
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GGP were always going to need to raise more cash than the $60m they expected to receive.
Firstly, they have a $50m loan facility with Newcrest which they used the majority of - this is needed to pay for the work up to the DFS (due in Q4).
The $60m would have cleared this with a few mil left.
Then you have the capex requirements for building the mine - GGPs share (assuming 30% ownership) was $73m. Shaun Day has previously mentioned having term sheets on his desk for debt financing and even mentioned that large high street banks are interested in being involved.
I wouldnât rule out a placing in the future (because you never really can), but Iâd expect the vast majority of the $123m ($50m loan + $73m capex) to be financed by debt. The $60m would have been been for clearing half of this balance, but then again we now have more collateral (ie the 5%) for borrowing against.
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That is a really good point. My understanding was that the construction capex was likely to be debt. That is probably still true but I think theyâll need a placing too clear the fifty million first. I guess we will just have to wait and see. On balance having the 5% is probably the best outcome though.
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Keeping the 5% is definitely great long term, but means short term volatility.
Iâd like to think SD wouldnât dilute holders by 15-20% to clear the loan. Perhaps raise a smaller amount and raise the rest through debt financing. Then again, who knows in this marketâŚ
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