Well, it all depends on if they actively sell or let it roll off, in which they are inclined to do the latter as I understand.
As I paraphrased originally âplanning to start reducing the balance sheetâ.
The semantics of whether they sell, roll off etc doesnât really matter, the position is that the trillions of assets will start to leave the Feds balance sheet, they seem to feel itâs worthwhile sooner rather than later
Do you think theyâll reach the target of $1T dollars off the books?
20% incoming!
Theyâll try to get to 3.0% but only manage to get to 2.25% before they roll over.
Letâs seeâŚ
Matt
youre probably correct but give it 10 years when oil is still at $180! 
If inflation is 2% then interest rates should be in the 3% plus range. Interest rates have been unnaturally low for a long time. Some might say unnecessarily low. During the transport revolution inflation was a negative, Interest rates were 4%. Okay going back a bit!!! But still ludicrous low for to long. On the otherhand do they need to raise it by a huge amount to reduce peoples spending hence inflation?
So i am going with 3% by this time next year. My brother informs me mortgages are fixed for the whole of term. I
assume it will take a bit longer for it to effects peoples spending. So they may need to go higher than the UK.
Whatâs the rate at now? 3%?
https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/reference-rates/effr
looks like its going higher eh. So the question could be, when does something break?
Dollar milkshake!
Raising interest rates has a time lag. Specially as in the US people tend to be on a fixed interest for the life of the mortgage (30 years)
Wages rising at less than price inflation is disinflationary and has no time lag.
Its therefore quite possible that they may go to far with interest rate rises.
Therefore as stated 3% in june 2023
Current Federal Reserve Interest Rates and Why They Change.
Is it or was it ever $180 a barrel?
Itâll get there in my view. My point was, within a decade itâll get there and still be there. I think it reach 130-140 and came back down. Itâll pass it again in my view.
So you donât think renewables will have any effect on oil and gas prices over the next 10 years?
Yes, itâll add to demand. The oil market is tighter than almost any time past. Basil 3.1 looks to make further in investment prohibitively expensive , opec + is now in a battle with the Whitehouse, but SPR runs out before opec+
US reserves will run out first? They are self sufficient in oil and gas.
Strategic petroleum reserve
Thats what i meant. Supply is greater than demand that how they can export oil and gas so no it wonât.
They are having to do another release to keep the price down. Opec+ cutting 800k real barrels a day. USA is not happy since oil is a global market and the cut drives prices up. Opec admitted the target is 90, however when China demand increases I see that increasing.
As an aside there is no shortage of oil and gas in the world. If the demand remains, supply from other parts of the world will step in. Iran and Venezuela could possibly replace all Russian oil and gas.
All iran has to do is give up its nuclear aspirations and Venezuela pay reparations for nationalisation of the oil companies (mainly US) operations.
Ermm not likely anytime soon!
1 Like
Wishful thinking in my view. Youâre relying on Venezuela and Iran?
As your well aware from the ! That i wasnât. New oil fields are found all the time. New technologies will continue to find oil.