Well, it all depends on if they actively sell or let it roll off, in which they are inclined to do the latter as I understand.
As I paraphrased originally “planning to start reducing the balance sheet”.
The semantics of whether they sell, roll off etc doesn’t really matter, the position is that the trillions of assets will start to leave the Feds balance sheet, they seem to feel it’s worthwhile sooner rather than later
Do you think they’ll reach the target of $1T dollars off the books?
They’ll try to get to 3.0% but only manage to get to 2.25% before they roll over.
youre probably correct but give it 10 years when oil is still at $180!
If inflation is 2% then interest rates should be in the 3% plus range. Interest rates have been unnaturally low for a long time. Some might say unnecessarily low. During the transport revolution inflation was a negative, Interest rates were 4%. Okay going back a bit!!! But still ludicrous low for to long. On the otherhand do they need to raise it by a huge amount to reduce peoples spending hence inflation?
So i am going with 3% by this time next year. My brother informs me mortgages are fixed for the whole of term. I
assume it will take a bit longer for it to effects peoples spending. So they may need to go higher than the UK.