The stock markets are at their best for months and the business news rumoring that a deal is in the pipeline really should make a big difference to market confidence.
People talk about Brexit and the market, but with the state of the European markets it has had little impact in my opinion on global markets. The drag down is really just the US-China bust up. Resolve that and share prices will soar everywhere.
There have been many false dawns. Multiple times there have been talk of breakthroughs and summits, and then out of nowhere, new tariffs are announced. There is no strategy, no clear line of thought, what has been achieved? The US announced steel tariffs with the EU for fuck’s sake.
My portfolio is mostly US, and some Asia. So the trade war stuff hurts. I hope to see an end to it soon, and it’d be great if it means China genuinely opens up their market more, but I don’t see any long term trade resolution happening during a Trump administration.
The tariffs have quite unusual democrat support. I think there is a lot of support for them now Trump was bold enough to do it. I don’t think the Democrats were prepared to risk anything (and Republicans for that matter pre Trump). Now his I don’t care approach seems to have emboldened the US as a whole to see this through. I have to say as much as I don’t like it as an investor, as a neutral I commend him. None of us would like China to do to us what it has done to US businesses. It’s theft of the most blatant kind.
Democrats were historically more likely to complain about trade, they complained about NAFTA even though they originally passed it. But the reason I think any long term resolution will only come after the Trump administration, is that literally anyone else in politics is likely to stick to a deal. Trump’s word is worthless. He could agree to one thing and then immediately renege on it.
I’m sure you don’t need me to remind you to check you inbox for the latest weekend read that has landed.
Made in China - @DanLane covers the problems investors have faced over 2021, how China is changing with a ‘common prosperity’ drive, how the next generation aren’t necessarily fawning over western brands and importantly way you can still get exposure one of the biggest markets in the world.
If you want to make yourself smarter over a brew then everything you need is here. Now on the crazy off chance that your not subscribed to both Weekend Read and Honey then you really should address this major black spot on your record. Click here and we won’t tell anyone, it’ll be our Dirty little secret . I’m only 15 referrals away from that sweet Honey branded honey so do it for me and my morning toast if nothing at all!!!
What are your thoughts on investing in China, do you have a favourite stock? Have you brought any of the fund Dan mentioned and seen some fantastic performances? Are you a Nio Fangirl, Tencent Groupie or Alibaba denier?
Weekend Read - Made in China
The sign up link isn’t working, at least on my laptop. Don’t think it is because I am already signed up.
Just thinking of you and getting those 15 referrals for that Honey
I’m invested in NIO & Huya… I’m not too concerned about NIO. Huya, on the other hand, has been a bit of a ‘bag drag’ since the merger with Douyu was blocked despite its healthy cash flow and P.E ratio of circ 16.
I hold the HSBC China ETF (HMCH) as mentioned by Honey. Also HSBC Emerging Markets (HMEF) = 39% China.
Outside of FT in my SIPP - I hold Bailey Gifford Em Markets Leading Co’s fund which = 30% China.
With a long term view, I’d hope the ETFs will perform slowly but surely. I very much doubt I’d invest directly into Chinese single stocks / ADRs again.
Edit to add: I really wish there was an Emerging Markets ex China ETF available in the UK. iShares does a great job with its single country India/Korea/Taiwan ETFs … But an ex China ETF would make EM investing more streamlined/simple.
There are Ishares EM ex-China ETFs available in the UK. They are just not on Freetrade.
Ohhh… Do you have details @SebReitz ? I can make a request.
I thought I’d tracked one down which was UCITS ticker EXCH registered in UK but in USD?
Yeah, that one for example.
It’s domiciled in Ireland and UCITS. It can be denominared in USD, that’s not an issue.
I have NIO fomo and think I missed the boat, that and it would be a pain to have to transfer fund into my GIA because everything I have is in my ISA.
I’ve invested in Xpeng and Ehang. Seem to be doing ok so far.
In line with my thinking here, I hold small positions in select stocks from advanced industries, like Ehang and Nio (although in hindsight Nio seems less export setup than say Xpeng). I’ve put some money in the Baillie Gifford trust as I believe the current situation leaves valuations quite favourable (especially the likes of BABA, and the demographic change with Gen Z can last another thirty years. Plus having that unlisted portion is unique as well. I have more faith in BG’s investment process and didn’t like the higher leverage and fees of the Fidelity fund. Long term I would still probably keep my domestic exposure limited.
Which BG fund did you go for @dk1 ? My SIPP might arrive with FT one day (thanks to the incompetence of low fee darlings Vanguard) and I need to make sure I’ve got some exposure to the Mighty Red Dragon.
China Growth Trust, first recommendation from the Weekend Read.
Really glad this came in handy @NeilB, it’s been a real topsy-turvy year for China but it seems like the long-term growth driver of middle-class wealth creation is still very much alive.
Thanks for reading and spreading the word about Honey/Weekend Read!
Should China be dumped? I am still hanging on to my China shares but they have gone down a lot over the last year.
If you are holding on to China shares you must believe that the trend against business is going to reverse.
At the moment China is tightening its grip on business by the day.
I only had one Chinese stock and it’s down over 80%. Im not sure if I just leave it now and watch it or just throw it into something high risk and speculative because holding on to it is probably the same high risk and speculative. I don’t really see how China is going to going into reverse here.