So I would of Usally just spoke in “What’s going on with the market” but everything gets removed as its not on topic, so here we’re with fresh new topics.
I have just seen some information that states oil companies have been on the lower end of profit making on the stock market compared to everything else, that was until recently.
I seen they’re not investing in the future and haven’t been for some time they’re just investing in the here and now to make profits. Oil companies have been reluctant in drilling over the years due to this as its been presumed that oil has lost the war with renewables already.
High Gas(Fuel) prices are here to stay it seems as the companies can just top up what renewables don’t and this was their plans.
The UK goverment has been in talks stating people selling shares etc are making big profits without the worry of big taxes and calls to change this are in talks by labour.
Its scary to watch patterns from the stock market which shows for example the S n P always recover from crashes but weirdly this one feels different.
I feel with the current war, tensions with China and Taiwan with the USA, Russia and Japan, the UK and Russia, India and China etc etc, the threats of another referendum in Scotland weakening the pound further…
Everyone in every bear market in the past 100 years has said that it feels different. Every single US/world bear market has ended and the respective index has surpassed previous ATH.
I think you consume too much information. This noise clutters the actual signal/trend and gives people weird ideas and anxieties.
We shall see I guess it all depends on how these wars turn out and yes I know everyone always says we won’t recover etc etc and it does.
I know at some point we will recover but I said it feels different because all of the looming wars and independence type stuff screwing with the pound.
You can look back all you want but we have lots of factors this time around.
There is a huge amount of turmoil but don’t get sucked into a recency bias. It always seems worse than anything before and extrapolating with in complete data causes the negativity to magnify.
No panicking here, although I am a little alarmed about my family’s lack of foraging and fire starting skills. Not that I am expecting us to be able to survive in some post apocalyptic wilderness … Yet.
Japans stock market has taken 20 years to recover. Supposedly it was trading on 80 times earnings. The Japanese thought they would never have another recession. When the banks leant money to companies they bought shares in them which became part of their reserve ratio. When the market started to fall they bought more shares in them…without telling the market. The rest is obvious. Even today Japanese accounts can sometimes be fraudulent.
UK is cheap relative to other developed nations and its difficult to get away with fraud. For the market to continue down much further say 20% then dividends would be to tempting not to get people buying.
Of course it is possible for the economy and the stock market to go into free fall. A nuclear war being the obvious. If so then i dont think i would give a shite about money.
“High Gas(Fuel) prices are here to stay”
I doubt it. Supply will increase as demand will eventually be met.
Iran Venezuela COULD solve the problem. Iran can add output overnight. Venezuela would take time…of course the US is not going cancel sanctions overnight. Also the higher the price the less that used…always. as opec found out when they decided to punish the west.
It’s a fair statement that some level of higher fuel prices will probably be here to stay for the medium term and maybe long term, as investment in upstream oil and gas has declined quite a bit from peak 2014 levels, it increased 10% last year from 2020 levels (which were very low).
Arguably there isn’t any incentive for either the private oil companies nor the state owned companies in OPEC to increase supply too quickly as they’ll want a more stable price, e.g. in comparison to the relative volatility of oil prices over the last 10-15 years.
But from what I have seen the companies are deliberately making sure they just reach demand or slightly under and as stated above have not invested in any new rigs, or onshore oil extractors.
I want to look into that more actully as it was interesting.
I should also add cross shareholdings. Companies often own shares in other businesses completely unrelated to there own. The aim is that they can stop directors getting the sack by always voting with the directors. Not illegal just immoral!
