Is this really the longest US bull market in history?


#1
  • Yes :white_check_mark:
  • No :negative_squared_cross_mark:
  • It depends :face_with_monocle:

0 voters

Topic inspired by: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-08-21/longest-bull-market-in-history-comes-with-jumbo-sized-asterisk


Tech bubble
(Vladislav Kozub) #2

Any thoughts on this bull/bear infographics?

Post 1933 and post WW2 seem to be longer still, hence it does depend on when the new recession will happen. There don’t seem to be many reasons for it yet, considering the US’s low unemployment and reduced tax rates I think.


#3

I can’t lie I find this infographic problematic because it seems inconsistent with Bloomberg & the FT. Still trying to reconcile it with the those 2. :thinking:

Also, I find the following interesting in terms of annualised returns of the current rally compared to the one of the 1930s:


(Vladislav Kozub) #4

As it happened historically, the sharper was the market fall, the quicker was the recovery. Whilst historic average is 22%, taking the US past inflation and investing fees into account will bring the real return down by a lot, unlike now with 1% to 2% inflation and $0 fees - 22% average is simply unlikely to be the norm anymore even during the bull market, probably will be like 10% to 15%.


When I personally make growth projections, I completely ignore the bull-bear stuff and prefer making it very simple: I take 5% as “most likely” and 7% as the “best case scenario” year-on-year real return from my age to my retirement (inflation adjusted, recession adjusted, world collapse adjusted).

If I stick to these figures, sacrificing £1000 on a holiday and investing it today will “most likely” let me go on the same-scale holiday 12 times in 50 years or 30 times in the “best case scenario”. This is actually how I convince myself to invest rather than spend :sweat_smile:

If I get 22% - hallelujah!


#5

Perfect. On the first point I’d just love it if they publicise whether they’re quoting real or nominal returns. It’d save a lot of headache.

I like your strategy too on the second point.


(Alex Sherwood) #6

While we’re on the subject, some interesting comments from the FT’s chief market analyst -

(I didn’t know the pricing the market in gold was a thing :man_shrugging:)


#7

Fascinating video to accompany his perspective:

P.S. I didn’t know either but glad it is a thing, at least for John Authers


#8

10 years ago, 15th September 2008, Lehman Brothers filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy – the largest such filing in U.S. history.
Another insightful commentary:


(Denislav) #9

Very good commentary from the FT, thank you for sharing it @Diversify