Not sure what is causing the dip in green energy shares. I thought with Biden in, the only way was up. I’m holding on
From the dip yesterday to todays high it was over 100p so prob people profit taking again. To loan a marketing phrase from yester year - long term the future is bright, the future is ITM
I am reading some itm chat and one guy made a great point. No my words. Link at the bottom
RE: When is a bubble not a bubble?Wed 19:52
mercmark, we’ve been given plenty of figures from ITM (and others) to be able to estimate a valuation. They are aiming for £500k per MW in about three years. That places the full factory at £500m target revenue for electrolysers alone. Allowing up to £150m for alternative revenue sources (warranty, service, spares, consultancy, grants) then a direct comparison against similar FTSE 100 industrial manufacturers calculates to £5bn market cap for one GW factory. With today’s shares in issue that’s a share price of 907p (by 2025).
Now if that’s where ITM were going to stop then, sure, today’s price is a bit high as we perhaps haven’t proven the ability to manufacture at scale yet (or you could argue that we haven’t proven the orders will come in). But if you’re willing to accept both those things for now, then the next point is how much can ITM grow. A second identical factory by 2030 approximately doubles the market cap, so equivalent to 1800p. Also GC is talking about the next factory being 2GW not 1GW, so combined 3GW business potential by, say, 2032. That would be more like 2700p by 2032.
So the question really is what should the share price look like between now and 2025, then 2030? And the only reason the share price should drop from here is if ITM fail to live up to that expectation. So far they haven’t failed. GW factory - check. Large partnerships - check. Massive projects - check. Worldwide potential - check.
There are a couple of reasons to slightly reduce the above figures, but nothing that would materially suggest today’s price is too high. I’d like to see a counter argument that values the business lower than today for an open comparison, but if it’s based on current production I don’t see why that’s relevant.
What a hard start to the day
I’d love to get more at this price but I can’t even move anything around. Everything in the UK is down for me
RNS from 9AM today
Big drop today !!
The thing is this time last year they were 1.30£ so it really puts it into perspective. Perhaps we got used to silly valuations that make no sense… and now the clean energy sector is readjusting…
Hi all. 40% down on this stock now. Is there anything positive I can take from this… I’m clearly very shaky about buying more to average out but I am here for the long game… I understand it’s a new technology etc. Many thanks
I’m in the same position, feels like I’m throwing good money after bad.
I ended buying more this morning, bringing my current loss from -28% to around -17%
I kind of believe in the stock, but I’m not an expert in the field, and I am very aware it still has a lot of downside potentially, see my post above, it was valued at 1.30£ per share not long ago.
The only good thing is my total spend is just under 300£ so it’s affordable. But still I can’t wait to give this stock a big kick up the backside and out of my portfolio!!
I think this and my Ceres stock is a ‘close your eyes for 5 years’ and pray to the gods
CWR was taken a beating recently huh? I topped up this morning and immediately lost another 4%.
reluctant to top up on ITM right now though, doesn’t look to hopeful for green energy in the short term (IMO, of course)
If you believed in the stock when you bought it then has anything changed other than the share price / investor sentiment? If not then your original position shouldn’t change if your holding for the long run.
good article in the FT today (might be behind paywall)
Thanks for that, is indeed a good read… Google search for it got me around the paywall
Wow, there’s so much panic going on, both on this thread & the wider markets!! However, there are a few gems to be found (both in the comments & in the market).
Looking through the posts on here, there are a few excellent comments - either written by fairly experienced traders or quick learners.
As for everybody getting hysterical on big ups or downs, I guess it’s somewhat natural but it’s utterly essential to the curb that propensity, control yourself & think strategically. If you can’t do that, stock market investing will be a living hell for you.
you know its been tough when you celebrate being down 11%
another day like this and im good
I try not to think of being up or down for that very reason.
Though, if people scrutinised their everyday spending in that regard, few would be as materialistic & active consumers.
Folk waste no end of money buying needless crap & dispose of them (mostly) with zero returns - not batting an eyelid about it, yet worry non-stop about investments doing what investments do.