Things looking brighter across the board so far this morning. Let’s hope it holds!
Yh when trading i try to keep emotions out of it. Last few days amhas tested that. Lol. In a few uears time all of this volatility will be forgotten and worth it. Let’s hope it keeps going
Things are looking up today, but as I’ve said before we are in for a bumpy ride as the economy still needs to recover and that will take awhile! So should still expect maybe some dips, but once recovered, it should hopefully be looking good
Not sure what is causing the dip in green energy shares. I thought with Biden in, the only way was up. I’m holding on
From the dip yesterday to todays high it was over 100p so prob people profit taking again. To loan a marketing phrase from yester year - long term the future is bright, the future is ITM
I am reading some itm chat and one guy made a great point. No my words. Link at the bottom
RE: When is a bubble not a bubble?Wed 19:52
mercmark, we’ve been given plenty of figures from ITM (and others) to be able to estimate a valuation. They are aiming for £500k per MW in about three years. That places the full factory at £500m target revenue for electrolysers alone. Allowing up to £150m for alternative revenue sources (warranty, service, spares, consultancy, grants) then a direct comparison against similar FTSE 100 industrial manufacturers calculates to £5bn market cap for one GW factory. With today’s shares in issue that’s a share price of 907p (by 2025).
Now if that’s where ITM were going to stop then, sure, today’s price is a bit high as we perhaps haven’t proven the ability to manufacture at scale yet (or you could argue that we haven’t proven the orders will come in). But if you’re willing to accept both those things for now, then the next point is how much can ITM grow. A second identical factory by 2030 approximately doubles the market cap, so equivalent to 1800p. Also GC is talking about the next factory being 2GW not 1GW, so combined 3GW business potential by, say, 2032. That would be more like 2700p by 2032.
So the question really is what should the share price look like between now and 2025, then 2030? And the only reason the share price should drop from here is if ITM fail to live up to that expectation. So far they haven’t failed. GW factory - check. Large partnerships - check. Massive projects - check. Worldwide potential - check.
There are a couple of reasons to slightly reduce the above figures, but nothing that would materially suggest today’s price is too high. I’d like to see a counter argument that values the business lower than today for an open comparison, but if it’s based on current production I don’t see why that’s relevant.
What a hard start to the day
I’d love to get more at this price but I can’t even move anything around. Everything in the UK is down for me
RNS from 9AM today