Lots of Trade Alerts yesterday as expected:
Dropbox Bull Spread - Sep04 - EXIT
Amazon Bull Spread
Apple Bull Spread
TLT ETF Bear Spread
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Where’s the best place to get a succinct explanation of these? I’ve tried googling a few sources but end up more confused.
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The great market bubble of r/wallstreetbets and Softbank…you couldnt make it up.
(actually working link)
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Is the bottom in?
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Climate change
The dips are good
I think we ought to be keeping an eye on the algorithm and get at least some of the investment out of momentum stocks (mainly tech) if it gets too high, probably also value. I think I’ll be moving some back into cash if it gets too high.
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Goldman Sachs moves global stocks to ‘overweight’
Bullish on Banks (“100% upside over 3 years”):
TA-JPM
Latest Webinar Slides:
Webinar20200916
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This is something I do not understand. Where does this increase in profitability come from?
Explains some of his reasoning at the bottom:
- Feels that the Fed announcement of no interest rate hikes is already priced in.
- JPM has over reserved and so will release some of this as profits in the coming years
- MS and GS raking in huge trading profits
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We do not yet know what the recovery will look like. The BoE is looking at negative rates and how these will be implemented. I am far from convinced we are out of the woods yet. Therefore the reserves may be needed.
In relation to trading activity that has largely come to a close now.
I understand the points would result in a price increase but I don’t believe any of them are correct.
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I request ChargePoint IPO this year
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What are your thoughts on todays comments?
In my opinion he mentions 2 main things, value rotation and a dip due to the election. I have been thinking about both of these things in the last few days also and I have not quite made my mind up as to which is more likely… I don’t think both can happen simultaneously.
I still think that gold will rise, but more moderately than I thought previously. I am starting to think that the risk of inflation is quite low but I believe the moderate increase may come from additional uncertainty from Covid, relationships between USA and China and the election in the USA.
The MHFT claims that the “Best buying opportunity of the decade is setting up,the next big dip is the one you buy”. I know he mainly does options, but is basically suggesting to exit stock positions and await a large dip?
He is simultaneously suggesting banks & value stocks, gold, real estate dips and bigger stock dips.
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Banks are already at historically low prices (though US banks less so). They have a heavy recession priced in, unlike US tech stocks.
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Is anyone convinced by his suggestion of a value recovery? I invested in an investment trust before the Covid crash, J P Morgan European Investment Trust Income Pool, for the dividend income, and am annoyed that it’s the only one of my investments that hasn’t recovered from the March low. It’s still down about 20% over the past year. J P Morgan pleads that the reason it’s down is that it’s too heavily invested in value stocks that pay dividends. So I’ve been wondering whether I should hang on to it, or cut my losses and sell, assuming that the current bias against paying dividends continues. If Mad Hedge Fund Trader is right, I should hang on… but also take profits from growth investments that have done much better since March. 
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Value investing has historically been a solid strategy in periods of recovery. I wouldn’t say you necessarily made a mistake in that investment choice but it has underperformed. The only reason I stayed away from some value funds is because they held alot of energy stocks which I felt is a dying industry (ex renewables)
However who knows what the next 6 months entails. Tech could continue to fall and value could excel. No specific factors have performed that well in the last 4 weeks.
John Thomas suggests that on the next dip/correction, that value stocks could perform on a recovery.