Yep Crispr!
Ooo Reits looking complicated for the foreseeable.
I agree with a lot of the picks as I have them in my portfolio, but I think his reasoning is shallow and ill-informed:
While Appleâs stores make up about 30% of its sales, most of this has been successfully moved online, so when they reopen, there will not be an âexplosion of new salesâ from pent-up demand. For better analysis of Apple, take a look at Stratchery, Above Avalon and Asymco to name a few.
Disney Plus will not be âthe next Netflixâ. The business model is very different - the purpose of Disney Plus is to complement their other businesses and build a direct relationship with customers. For better analysis of Disney, take a look at Matthew Ball.
Quantum computing, any suggestions on companies thatâll benefit the most down the line?
I dont know, however the article that he links mentions this:
The five research hubs are each led by the Energy Departmentâs Argonne, Brookhaven, Fermi, Lawrence Berkeley and Oak Ridge national laboratories. The hubs are comprised of top research universities, other national labs and big tech companies in the quantum computing space such as International Business Machines Corp (IBM.N), Intel Corp (INTC.O), Microsoft Corp (MSFT.O), and quantum computer startups Rigetti & Co and ColdQuanta Inc. An Italian research lab and a Canadian university are also taking part.
Missing from the list are Google parent Alphabet Inc (GOOGL.O), considered one of the top firms in quantum computing, and Honeywell International Inc (HON.N), which unveiled its quantum computing business in the past year.
So I googled the 2 âstartupsâ:
For Rigetti & Co I found that they did some type of private funding earlier this year as well as last year.
ColdQuanta seems to have done a private funding round 9 months ago also.
https://craft.co/coldquanta-inc/metrics
You never know, the platforms might have some sort of secondary market to sell shares. I know that some crowdfunding platforms have that (I think it was Seedrs). On the other hand, I donât know if the platforms are trustworthy, I have never heard of them.
In the daily tips, it sometimes mentiones companies at the bottom. Are these always âlongâ? Or sometimes short?
https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/hot-tips/
This is what it mentions today:
(MARKET OUTLOOK FOR THE WEEK AHEAD, or A TALE OF FOUR CHARTS),
(NASD), (TLT), (GLD), (JPM), (FB), (AAPL), (AMZN), (TSLA)
WALMARTâS QUEST TO BECOME THE NEXT AMAZON)
(WMT), (MSFT), (ORCL), (GOOGL), (AMZN)
I imagine most of these are long in the long-term, however temporarily he might think the bubble is about to burst on certain (if not all stocks), hence why I am asking .
These are neither long nor short. They are just the tickers he discusses in the âarticlesâ titled below
Thank you. He also explained it in one of the videos I saw last week.
I guess we are approaching a very clear sale signal (possible correction). Its also been mentioned in the daily tips.
He has been indicating to buy dips in gold (ETCs) for weeks. Does anyone know his position/view on government bonds and gold miners?
Just asking because those may also go up if there is a big correction in the coming weeks.
He says Gold Miners ETFs are like leveraged gold etcs in the way prices move, if that makes sense.
He has constantly been mentioning that 20+ year treasury bonds are going to crash later this year or early next year. Trade of the century too bad thereâs not many ways we in the UK can take advantage
Thank you for your reply.
It definitely makes sense, eg. if gold rises 10%, from 2000 USD to 2200 USD in a Gold ETC you gain 10% âprofitâ from the rise, however a miner with an AISC (cost) of 1000 USD would actually gain 20% profit.
My question is more because I think the last time I heard him saying this/the trade alert, the risk of a stock market correction was much lower. If we get a correction similar to that in March, all stocks may correct sigificantly, including gold miners, even if Gold does actually do alright. (Although in March it also corrected).
Similar to the above I think that they will rally again if there is a correction in the stock market. I do think that if central banks continue to issue bonds then it is likely that interest rates will rise.
I guess you could buy an option on a similar ETF.
iShares has a 20 year USA Treasury Bonds ETF (See Ticker IDTL, on the LSE).
Apart from that the only other option I know of is CFDs or using a inverse ETF, but all of the ones that I see for USA Treasuries on justetf.com seem to be based on âTreasury Futuresâ, which I donât know how they would relate to the actual bond ETF.
I donât buy his arguments around the long-term US treasury bonds. We have seen how poor the FED is at creating inflation. The dynamics of money require banks to lend before inflation can be produced in any meaningful sense and the evidence suggests this is not happening. Lending criteria are being tightened and wage rises are non-existent (with wages actually entering negative territory in many countries).
Thereâs also no guarantee that the FED will respond to any inflation with interest rate changes. Their recent change of position to use an inflation rate average gives them more flexibility to stay with lower rates even if inflation increases. The longer that they can let the inflation run higher with lower interest rates, the more it will eat into the massive balance sheet that they now have too.
Higher inflation wonât erode the Fed balance sheet?
Hi, I am no expert on the bond market and inflation but this is my take:
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I donât think that there will be significant inflation short term in the USA and Europe, but I do think that Gold will raise as it is a safe haven and a way of storing money in the event that a countries debt or economy goes bust (which I donât think will happen in Europe/USA but may happen in Emerging Countries) and generic economic risks. Also, Oil is probably going to be low for some time which affects inflation. There may also be mid term inflation if there are significant tax raises across the board and companies pass on additional Covid-related costs onto the final price of things.
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With regards to bonds, I do not think that the FED will increase interest rates over the coming year due to the reasons outlined by both of you. However, my take on it is that the interest rate on the USA Treasury Bonds is likely to increase, due to the USA government issueing more bonds. As the USA expands its budget, it will have to issue more bonds which will increase the interest rate or yield at which it is issued, as the demands for bonds stays relatively constant.
See the yield curves in the website below:
Select 2020 and you will see. The 30 year USA Treasury bond had a yield of 2% in February, then it gave 1.6% in early March and now it is around 1.4%. This will probably increase as the government issues more bonds. A possible imminent market correction will increase demand for government bonds temporarily, but in the medium run and once the stock market starts to rise again interest rates on the bond (bond yield) should increase, due to the large issuance of bonds (large supply) even if the FED keeps the interest rate low, as the demand for bonds stays relatively constant. Also, we are not talking of an increase to
On the other hand, the FED could also buy even more USA Treasury Bonds and own a larger portion or even the entirety of the USA governmentâs debt⊠we shall see. This is an option that would keep interest rates on the bonds low. No one can really know what will happen.
On a different topic, what are your thoughts on todayâs correction of tech stocks?
Will it continue correcting or will it end here? What do you think it will do tomorrow?
The algorithm has gone down from around 77 to 61 today.
My current view is that there will be a major correction before the end of the year, but I think it is likely that there will be one more âpumpâ this month if the Democrats and the Republicans agree a stimulus plan before the election. That would give a final boost to the stock market before the actual correction, which as I see it could be caused by the election, the trade war with China or rising Covid-19 cases worldwide with people going back to offices, schools and winter.
The MHFT mentions that âthe top is inâ:
Hi @101, I did some more quick online searching last weekend and all the companies that are focussed on it seem to be private (Ltds, or similar), so it seems like the only option is to invest in private funding rounds.
On the stock market, the options I found are a number of bigger players with departments researchig this. It includes the following: Google, Microsoft, IBM, Honeywell, Nokia, AT&T, Volkswagen, Biogen, Accenture, Baidu and Atos.
For AT&T its not the actual computing but its use and integration from what I understand, that might also apply to others such as Volkswagen and Biogen.
Based on some articles, it seems like Google, IBM and Honeywell currently are ahead of the pack. I am no expert though, so maybe someone can add some more .
I have no clue when the correction will happen therefore will buy in dips like today. If things continue to fall then just buy more
Tesla target $300 (not advice)