Netflix - NFLX - Share Chat

Don’t currently hold NFLX So I may start a position on this drop :eyes:

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24% down :flushed:… will it go lower?

Same here… I’ve been wanting to for awhile now, good thing I waited.

I don’t know where I stand on Netflix. On one hand they’re a fantastically run company with industry leading content. On the other hand it’s P/E is still 10 points about the Nasdaq average and it faces strong competition.

I volume yesterday was really interesting, nearly 60 millions shares changed hands which is close to 20x the historic volume but still a long way from the full float which means … lots of people who have been sitting on a stock that has been falling slowly for months cut their losses and walked away. After morning trading it was pretty flat all way (-19% → -21%) so that shows a good resistance.

There will be a pop on Monday, I’d guess 4% - 7%, but I’d be suprised to see this break $200bn again for a little while.

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Netflix are trialing a polite nudge to remind people that password sharing outside of your household is no longer okay. It’s funny because I’ve regularly traded my (Colombian Netflix £5.41 las month) password for other stream services so I guess this might be aimed at people like me!

Get out your old envelopes and let’s do some calculations of what this could add to the top line. ~214m subscribers

Let guess they have 32m password sharers (15%)

If they convert 40% of these miscreants to the new $3 extra plan they’ll add $460m annual revenue

&

They convert 20% of the password borrowers into fully paid members. ~$600m annual revenue

$1.06bn to top line revenue would make a nice boost to the quarterly earnings calls, IF it works

Edit - Netflix is trading at an impressive 35x earnings so an extra $1bn would add $35bn to the market cap & a theoretical 20% bump to the share price.

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Does that mean you’re on Narcos series 23 @NeilB ?!

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I’ve been with Netflix from pretty much the beginning… yesterday I logged in to find a pop up stating I’d have to pay a whole extra £1 to keep my subscription… so now I have to pay £6.99 a month as opposed to £5.99.

Bothered? No… It’s my only TV subscription & I can cancel at anytime at a click of a button as opposed to a lengthy phone call.

I think the price increase was well overdue…

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I guessed 15% but apparently it’s 14%. :dark_sunglasses:

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Big oof for holders, over 25% down after earnings.

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So they’re admitting that subscriber growth has peaked and they now will look at other ways to monetise their product to grow revenues. One way to generate some subscriber growth is to find a way to block people sharing logins and get them to subscribe but this is hard to police.

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The headlines are partly misleading.
They kicked all their Russian users, so without this effect, they would have grown by half a million.
But the expectations were still not met. Crackdown on multi-use has already been intesified over the past months.

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So the market was looking for a reason to over react. They’re model is coming under stress but at a 20% discount this might be work a look.

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The discontinuation of Russian service meant the loss of 700k subscribers. Without that, they would have grown by 500k subscribers. But that’s still way off their own forecasted 2.5M growth. They’re now forecasting another 2M down next quarter.

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Unfortunately for me (as I hold Disney), it looks like the Netflix results have pushed Disney down by over 4.5% after hours. It will be interesting to see whether Disney Plus has also had a slowdown in new subscribers - they have less content than Netflix, but much better known brands. I’m looking forward to the Obi Wan series in May.

I subscribe to both, but if I had to let one go it would have to be Netflix rather than Disney.

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Bloody Hell - Netflix drop horribly

Me too. With kids in the house Disney + is worth 10x the monthly fee for my sanity!

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I cancelled Netflix when they gave Meghan and Harry an obscene contract.

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