I think I would invest at a lower market cap (i.e. if they go down in price a bit), though it’s far from a sure thing, for these reasons:
- Electric cars are the future - Tesla have a head start on batteries, charging network, software
- Self-driving cars are the future - Tesla are collecting huge amounts of data there, and the software for it
- Software will eat the world - Musk sees this, in a way that GM and Ford never will
- Robotics and additive manufacturing is going to take over - Musk sees this, in a way that GM and Ford don’t
- They’ve bypassed dealers, will be interesting to see how that works out, but it could work well
- Musk is very good at selling a grand dream and inspiring employees to excel (even at their own personal cost), and customers to buy the dream - reminds me of Jobs in that respect
Downsides are lack of cash (probably no longer a problem), crazy experiments in manufacturing, lack of experience.
I’m not sure their current market cap is justified and was waiting for a bit more value before investing, but I do think they have the potential to grow to a very large transport company.