Tesla security analysis - Q3 2018

The full premium doesn’t sound that great.

Tesla’s upsell game is weak. There is so much money to made on car adds-ons. Money left on the table, I suspect a lot of this is to do with the manufacturing and the delivery side of things. Maybe in time they’ll figure it out.

The number 1 thing that would put me off buying a model 3 even if it was reasonably priced is having ALL the controls on the touch screen. haven’t they heard of ergonomics? Seems to me like they’ve abandoned ease of use in favour of gimmicks.

Since when was navigating a menu easier that just pressing a button or turning a knob?

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I’m a hashtag millenial so it bothers me very little, I have to say though stuff like the glovebox being controlled onscreen is ridiculous bordering on the unsafe.

They also have to fix this urgently if they want to get any market share on our rainy little rock.

You have a point. It’s also harder to control a screen without looking. Would changing the temperature then be driving while using a mobile :thinking: What about sunny conditions, do the screens then become harder to read? How robust is the touch screen… does it crack etc. So many questions…

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:chart_with_upwards_trend::balance_scale::chart_with_downwards_trend:

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One of the things about Tesla is you can normally tell what a Tweeter thinks about Tesla based on if they refer to it as $TSLA or $TSLAQ. You can see what the ‘Q’ means here.

Unsure if it was covered here, Fidelty sold about 1 million shares in Tesla in March. In the last year they are meant to have sold about 2/3rds of their holding.

Even the new plan to raise money sent the share price down until the second filing where Musk said he’s buying all those shares which just adds fuel to the bears fire. Musk has a lot of money borrowed against his Tesla shares, so the theory is if the price drops to $213 then Musk will either need to cough up or the shares could get liquidated, sending the share price in a free fall. Or so their theory goes.

There’s also people comparing what the SEC filings say vs what Musk has said recently. Looking for discrepancies to support their argument whichever side of the divide they fall on.

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People seem to really like the screen. The big advantage to it is they can update the controls completely over the air (just like they update the autopilot software). I think Musk genuinely expects the entire car UI to be on this screen at some point (no pedals, no steering wheel), and drivers to be passengers in a few years. If you think that way the screen makes sense.

Software is I think where Tesla will win more than anywhere else - for other manufacturers it is a secondary function, for Tesla it is primary (all software UI, autopilot).

Tesla shares I don’t own, long put off by governance issues.

Nonetheless I enjoyed the views of these five visionary longer term thinkers:

  1. https://ark-invest.com/research/tesla-fsd …

  2. https://cnb.cx/2GQAgBP

  3. https://twitter.com/paulg/status/1122803944206544897?s=12 …

  4. https://twitter.com/jason/status/1124025680994492418?s=21 …

  5. https://pod.link/1358756008

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Very interesting. Thanks for sharing!

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Up to $750m in stock and $1.6bn in notes now. Offer price now $243.

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They’re now asking for more and the price is going up again :rofl:

Seriously though there is some logic to this - the depressed price is partly due to uncertainty over insolvency or massive dilution, so once the extent of dilution is clear, there is less cause to worry about cash flow.

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The dilution is still below 2% afaik. Pretty small price to pay for the almost total guarantee of solvency.

Tesla investors must be getting used to this by now :roller_coaster:

Maybe shorten that stock – might turn out to be a smarter move haha

Good shout, I’ve now moved the rest of the discussion here: Short selling (chat)

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Enjoyed this detailed perspective. The basic point is short sellers have to do a lot of research to win and knock down a stock, but when they do their sober fact-based truths feel more real than the bull belief in untangible future unicorns. I’m keeping a close eye to start growing my position cautiously now that the major drops seem to have eased slightly.

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For every bull argument there is equally compelling bear argument and vice versa.

Hugely positive news!

Here’s the updated scorecard:

16,350 vehicles delivered in total this month (YoY increase of 7130 units)

This puts a severe dent in the “no demand” bear thesis imho. I think its not unreasonable to assume EV growth is now so strong it will power through any macro headwinds, especially in China (Shanghai Gigafactory progress is very promising).

Also notable is the very large ramp in Audi e-tron sales in its second successful month.

Annoyed I didn’t manage to buy the dip :sob:

I’m not sure it’s recovered from its dip just yet… :joy:

hahaha yeah not wise words exactly. I was really hoping to average down at the high seventies at the same time good news came in. Will probably go back around there at some point. For some reason the stock rallied with ridiculous volume at open so I was a little confused. This news only came in an hour ago.