Trade Ideas, Strategies & Portfolio 📈


(Liam Thompson) #1

I’d be really interested to know if anyone has any upcoming trade ideas, long or short term and would love to hear how people choose their stocks & how they trade? For example does anyone trade around earnings reports in the short term or do you take a more fundamental approach in the long term?

Would be great to hear if anyone has any trade ideas that we could discuss :rocket:

Also, here is my current portfolio. I think it would be great if people would criticise my choices and maybe share yours? Think it would be good if there could be a new category called “Trade Ideas”, where people could discuss news events, trade ideas and specifics such as good entry points etc

Anyway here is my portfolio please criticise it!

Long term - Tesla :red_car:. I honestly believe that if anyone is going to be the one to start the transition to more electric and AI powered cars it will be Elon Musk through Tesla. If we start flying in hover cars it will be a Tesla :joy:

Medium Term - Gym Group :weight_lifting_man: There are so many Gym Groups popping up all over the place and with its ‘no contract’ and cheap prices it is very attractive to people in such a competitive market. I am also a member which helps. Also have a look at it’s price - the only way is up!

Short Term - EA :video_game: Mainly due to the release of Apex Legends - as long as they can sort their issues with Anthem out I think this is a good short term choice. Also price is currently trading in an ascending channel and has just bounced off the bottom support line.

Please share your thoughts!


#2

I think this part of the forum is already for exactly this sort of discussion.

My view on the topic you raise is: “don’t pick stocks, you won’t do as well as the market”.

But to criticise your portfolio since you asked:

Tesla may be one of forerunners, but the biggest sellers now and going forward will be the traditional car manufacturers. They’ve already all committed to going electric as mandated by future laws. This area will quickly become a race to the bottom like the rest of the car market. If Tesla can corner the market on batteries they may be worth something, but there are challengers in the world of battery tech that could easily defeat Tesla.

Are Gyms really a growth area? I would have thought the world of fitness is moving to apps and working out at home, if it hasn’t already.

For the short term, please don’t be fooled by the fancy terminology of chartists. It’s academically proven nonsense, perhaps not quite as good as reading tea leaves. As for EA, if there’s one gaming company with a proven track record of ruining good things through mismanagement, EA is it.

But remember, you absolutely should not listen to anything I have to say on the subject of particular stocks. Because I, like everyone else, don’t know what the hell I’m talking about. Because no one can predict the future.


(Ben) #3

Gyms are certainly popping up everywhere. While I own a fancy treadmill complete with bluetooth and virtual social apps with a big TV etc etc - I still have gym membership. I think if you are going down the fitness route the at home treadmill is quite often an additional accessory. Gyms have never been so cheap and accessible and I think as a nation of office workers becoming more health conscious as well as probably more body obsessed demand will only rise.

Tesla - too weird and suspicious for me. I don’t like jumpy volatile reactive people running big companies. Many a crazy nut has made a million, but many also lose everything because they get lost in the right way.
I also doubt the might of BMW, VW and the Japanese auto companies will roll over to Tesla without a fight.

I’m just screaming for this Android app!! Hurry freetrade!!


(Liam Thompson) #4

Thank you! I appreciate your response. I completely agree with your EA point and their reputation, hence why I was looking for a shorter term trade off the back of Apex Legends rather then an investment. Would love to hear some of your stock picks if you have any! :grinning:


(Liam Thompson) #5

I think the fact that the Gym Group keep building more gyms is a good sign, if they didn’t think there would be a good customer base they wouldn’t do it, everyone one I’ve been to seem to be very popular!

You’re Tesla point is very valid, Elon Musk could be the best thing that ever happened to the company or the worst. I feel like out of all the manufacturers Tesla is making the most progress :oncoming_automobile:. Do you have any stock picks yourself?


(Ben) #6

I am planning to cheat a bit. Going to mirror some open portfolios that i follow on a rival site that I know consistently make money and then I’ll just have a play with small amounts on stuff I fancy. I don’t even know what’s available on free trade to buy. Guessing another 2 or 3 weeks of waiting to find out!


(Simon) #7

Just here to add a boat into the mix of your near identical thumbnails (well in my small screen)
I had to look twice as I thought you were replying to yourself


(Liam Thompson) #9

Would you mind sharing that site?


(Liam Thompson) #10

:joy: I hadn’t even noticed that!


(Ben) #11

Google 5 Simple Rules for Building a Copy Portfolio and that should help.

Can be dangerous high risk to effectively put your money into the hands of random folks by (automatically) mirroring them… but I also know they know more than I do so.


#12

How do you know this? How do you know they haven’t simply gotten lucky, which is why you know about them, and their luck won’t run out as soon as you start copying them?

It shouldn’t need mentioning, and maybe it’s mentioned so often that you just kinda start ignoring it, but past performance is not an indicator of future performance. That phrase should be understood and taken to heart.


(Ben) #13

That site has terrible reviews, but also very well rated. But anyone can sign up and use the virtual portfolios and just see for yourself. I have account on HL, that site and hopefully at end of March freetrade.

I select my copy portfolios very carefully Sendu. Like everything there is a risk. I won’t put all my eggs in one basket - including Freetrade. :wink:


#14

What’s your selection criteria? Does it involve looking at past performance? To make my point more explicit, there probably isn’t any information that you could glean from knowing about a person and their portfolio that would enable you to know that it’s a good idea to copy them. Because they themselves have no skill, only luck.

Yes, diversification is the way to effectively eliminate your non-systematic risk. If the portfolio(s) you’re copying amount to 60+ different stocks, your remaining risk is probably just with the whole stock market crashing (or if those were all stocks in a certain geographic region or other sub-category, with that part of the market crashing).

But 60+ stocks may not have the same potential as a few great ones for amazing returns, due to averaging out. So you could certainly choose to take risks on smaller portfolios. As long as you’re aware of how much risk you’re taking on.


(Simon) #15

Which site are you using?


(Carl Sealeaf ) #17

Any ideas I have, I run through the Vector Vest stock advisory for the fundamentals. Or sometimes I do the opposite and look at the best performing fundamentals to find a company. If a company has a falling or sideways price and increasing earnings per share, it gets my attention. I recommend some data and insight to run along side what we always like to think we know.


#18

I’m not going to touch the rest of your post, but I will just chime in with the last suggestion. Apex Legends has already been priced in, so unless you bought on the day it was released I wouldn’t touch it with a barge pole. Completely ignoring EA’s reputation, there is a lot of headwind in the AAA gaming market and investors are soon enough going to realise that ballooning quarterly profits were always unsustainable and loot boxes are gambling (you could argue some already have).

Sure AL is a great game, Respawn are the real deal, and 25 million players in a week or whatever is seriously impressive. But have a look at EA’s track record at monetisation, or how difficult it will be to even keep a hold of half of those 25 million for another six months with Battle Royale being so saturated and the words “shareholder returns” don’t immediately spring to mind.