Alphabet - GOOG - Share Chat

I do really like Alphabet and with much of the regulatory pressure baker into the share price could see them as a growth opportunity.

With pressure on TikTok growing YouTube stands only to benefit and that’s while they’re still commanding a huge amount of people’s time.

It hit $102 as I expected. Bought some today :+1:

I was trying to calculate how you would value the effect of a fine on share price. Got too complicated for me to think about though, lol.

I would guess most of us can’t do this type of analysis, but it is pretty fundamental to investing.

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Very generous of Google to refund all the Stadia hardware and software.

A long and comprehensive analysis of Alphabet stock. Genuinely think it’s a bargain at these prices.

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Amazing price to pick up shares

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What I took away from that motley Fool article was “And with a historically low forward [price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 18”
That would certainly tempt me if that’s the sort of sector I was interested in.
Just noticed they are on $85 2 share classes but both on similar prices.
Growth really is taking a kicking. I will add Scottish mortgage to my watch list. A better way to invest in growth.
It’s already on a decent discount.

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Most of what this letter says does make sense. Alphabet management should take heed.

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Alphabet and amazon were two companies that Terry Smith would never buy.
He has changed his mind on amazon will he on Alphabet? Its not just there model he didn’t like but the price. I would think it would be probably double what it is now when he said it.

Bold claim

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It’s a very bold claim to make but then again the quality of results in Google Search has been declining for a few years now and some of the ChatGPT answers are really great.

It’s a very odd claim considering Google literally wrote the paper Attention Is All You Need on which this GPT is based and discovered the Chinchilla scaling laws, probably two of the most influential recent papers related to Large Language Models.

Google’s PaLM is a significantly more capable LLM than GPT3 and Alphabet seems to have large natural advantages in scaling transformers (from data and TPUs).

As ever Google could mess up how they commercialise this/turn this into a product, but I don’t think there is any catching up to do in ML.

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Google recognise AI as a risk.

But I do think they’re in a strong position. If Google starts delivering AI answers on their results page, why would users go elsewhere?

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Ultimately, competition is good for the consumer!

Often big businesses are too slow to transition and they get beaten by smaller, more agile companies, although OpenAI is backed by Microsoft, it looks like. It will be interesting to see how it goes.

I’ve said before, it’s always difficult to predict what will replace the current state of the art, I certainly couldn’t have predicted what would be the next “Google Search”, but this could be it and it’s interesting to see it happening in real time.

The racing dynamic is very scary from an Alignment perspective, did not expect that so soon.

I think it’ll be while before we see a LLM integrated into Search the inference cost is still too high. Maybe when they have TPU v5/6 or some other big cost reduction. Good commentary here:

I wonder if Gmail (rather than search) might be the first place we see a LLM used - it seems a better fit.

Google invests $300m in Anthropic, but basically in the form of cloud compute vouchers for them to spend at GCP.

Certainly a sign of the times when even v. big well-capitalised AI companies are becoming reliant on big tech to fund the next round of training.