Coronavirus and Stock Markets - Thoughts?

https://images.app.goo.gl/CLtJQHjpmqH18Zry8

1 Like

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/uk-satellite-startup-one-web-blames-coronavirus-as-it-files-for-bankruptcy-145527915.html

STAY AT HOME.

1 Like

It’s always someone else’s fault.

I personally dont see how the stock market can start recovering when the number of cases are growing parabolically like tesla stock couple of months ago. Currently at 33% per day growth. Maybe in couple of months sure. But when everyone is sitting at home and not buying anything. We will get on the other side eventually by all paying higher tax later this year. As always people pay to bail corporations out…

3 Likes

The stock market may have tanked too far in relation to the forward expected recovery, which explains some adjustments & gains last week.

Lots of investors missed the main dip and are now hoping it all dips like that again so they get a second chance. It’s so dumb. Things move really quick.

More volatility, yes. Will all companies go that low again? Most likely not all. Could the market crash later in the year, potentially. Could the bottom have been already reached, potentially.

2 Likes

Stock market hasn’t fully understood that we are going into lockdown for another 2-3 months minimum, which entails putting the economy on complete hold and racking up significant amounts of debt in order to just keep the system from collapsing completely. Evan after the peak there will be some more months where things will slowly open to make sure that the virus doesn’t comeback a deadlier second time as it did in 1918. If we open too early that’s when the real damage will happen. This thing will go on until we have a cure or enough people have caught the disease. Baring some medical miracle this is a long process which EVERY scientist has said yet so many investors do not listen to them.

Rallies like this have always happened looking at the historical nature of bear markets and I feel people will get caught out…

All my opinion and stay safe.

6 Likes

No one knows if the market tanked too much or too little or when is the top or bottom. What we only can control in this situation is what companies to buy at what price in relation with how much cash flow they produce for shareholders aka us. Stop predicting the top and bottom.

8 Likes

Wall Street has other plans than the rest of us, and besides that some big investment banks have already said that the market already bottomed. It can also mean a trap or something else, unless you put yourself in the minds of these people we are just guessing using fact based evidence :[

Some interesting webcasts from S&P, with plenty on COVID-19:
https://www.spglobal.com/ratings/en/events/webcasts/

2 Likes

TLDR
400% growth in corporate debt growth in emerging markets over 12 years (to $2.3 trillion) poses huge risks for them as well as for the global economy and any recovery.
Rising dollar makes dollar denominated debt less serviceable
Also questions whether/how China would support EM countries that suffer

5 Likes

The economic impact would be something else…

On the latest news advice this evening. Looks like its time to start all those home based projects you’ve put off, learn a language or read a book you’ve always wanted to read. Try some mad world war 2 fitness program… anything to try and stay sane

6 Likes

This is also quite shocking as well. Is there anything underlying at a government level, which obviously is withheld for public knowledge, in order to not panic people?

“German state’s finance minister kills himself”
https://www.thelocal.de/20200329/german-minister-commits-suicide-due-to-coronavirus-worries

1 Like

I seen that earlier and there’s some rumours it wasn’t just a “suicide”.

Was this a whistleblower that was about to expose what’s about to come?

Tragic and condolences to his family.

Also this might be a naive question…

With all the dividend cuts and dividends being cancelled, when the world returns to normality will we still have the yield on cost we purchased today?

For example if I get in now and buy RDSB, at a 10% yield. They then decide they are suspending the dividend for 12 months because they cannot cover it. When they then reintroduce the dividend, say it’s now at 5%. I will still get the 10% right?

Hi Jamie, you will get the amount of dividend the company announces at the time and your yield will simply be the dividend value dividend by your cost per share.

If they reinstate the dividend at same level, your yield will be as before

2 Likes