Coronavirus and Stock Markets - Thoughts?

Absolutely, there is a very real risk of this.

Some analysis about buying the dip in the FT

TLDR not yet!

Waiting for a receding tide to turn

Also buying the coronavirus dip would be bold

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It really isnā€™t.

The problems in the context of Covid-19 are:

  1. People avoid seeing the doctor even when sick because theyā€™re worried about the cost. This increases potential spread.
  2. When they do see the doctor, they have to meet strict conditions to be tested for Covid-19 by the CDC. Even if their doctors think they have it, CDC wonā€™t test if any conditions are missing. Can mean infected arenā€™t treated effectively, or are released back out to continue spreading.
  3. Trump has appointed Mike Pence to spearhead the US governmentā€™s response to Covid-19. You just have to look at his track record with HIV to see how badly qualified he is.

While individual doctors and hospitals may be very good and deliver excellent care on many levels, that doesnā€™t change the fact that as it stands, the US healthcare system is already badly compromised in terms of responding to Covid-19.

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Futures ticking up. FTSE 100 looking to gap up 2% :rocket:. Nice for those who bought last Friday! Corona virus priced-in or perhaps a coordinated central bank intervention? It wonā€™t be an easy rally as VIX is still elevated at 40+. For stability it needs to decay towards 20 or lower.

FTSE jumping over 2.5% already, we reckon this is going to be a pop and drop?

Or is there going to be a V shape recovery now the central banks look to be stepping in?

Only thing Iā€™m thinking is they can pump in all the money they want, it still doesnt ā€œcureā€ the virus :thinking:

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There was a green day last week, and look what happened afterwards. This is optimism on central bank action, but itā€™s not the bottom of the drop just yet in my opinion.

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Not going to lieā€¦I saw the 2% rise and bottled it! Bought the UK stocks of been keeping my eye on. Probably jumped the gun, but I hadnā€™t bought the dip at all and didnā€™t want to miss it. Will probably go again next week.

I donā€™t think itā€™s bottomed yet. However I donā€™t really mind if I miss buying the dip because Iā€™m wrong about that.

I think itā€™s better to miss it than to buy too early and then see another huge drop

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I dropped in an extra bit this morning aswell Benjamin. My thinking is if this is the start of the reversal Iā€™ve still captured a nice wee 10-12% discount.

Iā€™ve got a spare bit of cash Iā€™m just going to spread over the next fortnight and buy either on the way up, or on the way down should the markets reverse again.

That way I feel like Iā€™m hedged in both scenarios. Iā€™m investing for the next 20/30 years easily into the indexes so Iā€™m sure being wrong a couple of % on a dip wonā€™t be the end of the world :smile:

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I was surprised to see the markets up quite so much this morning as I donā€™t see this as the bottom of the dip. Iā€™ve not started buying yet and actually used this morning as an opportunity to sell a few things to increase cash on hand.

Still sitting approx 85% cash, waiting for my first round of buys - hope (for my sake) that Iā€™m correct.

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I bought on Friday but am not yet convinced. Iā€™ll feel better once I see a green week. Looks like it might be starting to struggle :frowning:

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I dont think we have hit the bottom yet, virus is spreading in the U.K. and mainland Europe, not to mention that it looks like it will get a foothold in the USA. I think itā€™s optimism of a new week, but I will be surprised if it lasts.

Still, you can wait for the ultimate bottom or you can jump in at a convenient time now. A few % points away from a theoretical bottom is still not a bad place to be after such a big drop last weekā€¦!

This seems at the heart of the increase weā€™re seeing at the moment:

New coronavirus cases diagnosed outside of China still exceed new cases diagnosed inside of China, according to the World Health Organizationā€™s daily situation report. But new cases diagnosed outside of China fell Sunday compared with Saturday.

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The market will rise and then fall, there is a lot of bad news coming up. America is only about to discover how much communal spread they have had. Because of the mistake by the CDC they did not have any kits to actually test people till this weekend. Once the populace learns how much it has spread it will create another shock. I also suspect that Bernie Sanders will win on Tuesday adding fuel to the fire. The best approach is to pick great businesses that have solid balance sheets and think of 5years, 10years or even more from now. Well, that is my style anyway, it allows me to confidently buy more stocks.

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Indeed, am with you.

I am not a stock market rasputin, but I expect gold to rally quite a bit as it took a massive hit on Friday due to margin calls, but for the rest of the stocks to have a short-lived rally, and especially nosedive when the supply chain management report for the USA comes out later today. Energy sector may see a pick up, feels like they were oversold.

Am in the process of creating my shopping list, centres around quality value companies that I know will be around for donkeys years, prioritise them on which had the biggest fall the last week and then start averaging down although most likely not until after the Super Tuesday democratic primaries in the USA.

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One of my favourite trusts ($SMT) is up over 5% today :slight_smile: a rare spot of green in a sea of red for me at the moment but I have lots of dry powder being spread in every few days.

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Itā€™s always reassuring to hear that so many are using the ā€œaveragingā€ in strategy aswell.

It is looking like a pop and drop is happening, both UK indexes dropping almost 2% from opening highs.

Yeah itā€™s always tempting to throw tons of money in at the first sign of a drop, but averaging is the way to go! :slight_smile:

Todayā€™s strong FTSE opening is rapidly going down the drain. Predict a red ending, especially if US futures donā€™t hold up (and theyā€™re dropping slowly.)

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Not only that but apparently the US healthcare system is charging $3000 for people to get tested for COVID-19. What a broken system.

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