Keep an eye on your cruise operators. They’re in lockdown at the moment but any cruises that were in operation are supposed to finish as usual.
Unfortunately for them it’s no longer the case and cruisers are to be repatriated early next week.
Expect bigger falls on your favourite tour operators.
Meanwhile, in Dublin:
Hours before:
All roads lead to assets and liabilities of banks.
So the key word, like in 2008, is always liquidity.
This will also be a test for businesses contingency plans and insurance claims. Hopefully, 
has a plan.
Good news. What that company might be.
So, about that liquidity.
Money markets - the market where banks lend money to each other for up to 12 months (short-term lending) - are getting assistance from the Fed, who, among other other Central Banks, appears to be lowering rates again.
Released ~25 minutes ago:
The Bank of Canada, the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan, the European Central Bank, the Federal Reserve, and the Swiss National Bank are today announcing a coordinated action to enhance the provision of liquidity via the standing U.S. dollar liquidity swap line arrangements.
These central banks have agreed to lower the pricing on the standing U.S. dollar liquidity swap arrangements by 25 basis points, so that the new rate will be the U.S. dollar overnight index swap (OIS) rate plus 25 basis points. To increase the swap lines’ effectiveness in providing term liquidity, the foreign central banks with regular U.S. dollar liquidity operations have also agreed to begin offering U.S. dollars weekly in each jurisdiction with an 84-day maturity, in addition to the 1-week maturity operations currently offered. These changes will take effect with the next scheduled operations during the week of March 16.1 The new pricing and maturity offerings will remain in place as long as appropriate to support the smooth functioning of U.S. dollar funding markets.
The swap lines are available standing facilities and serve as an important liquidity backstop to ease strains in global funding markets, thereby helping to mitigate the effects of such strains on the supply of credit to households and businesses, both domestically and abroad.
…
…
Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The effects of the coronavirus will weigh on economic activity in the near term and pose risks to the economic outlook. In light of these developments, the Committee decided to lower the target range for the federal funds rate to 0 to 1/4 percent. The Committee expects to maintain this target range until it is confident that the economy has weathered recent events and is on track to achieve its maximum employment and price stability goals. This action will help support economic activity, strong labor market conditions, and inflation returning to the Committee’s symmetric 2 percent objective.
…
…
The Federal Reserve encourages depository institutions to turn to the discount window to help meet demands for credit from households and businesses at this time. In support of this goal, the Board today announced that it will lower the primary credit rate by 150 basis points to 0.25 percent, effective March 16, 2020. This reduction in the primary credit rate reflects both the 100 basis point reduction in the target range for the federal funds rate and a 50 basis point narrowing in the primary credit rate relative to the top of the target range. Narrowing the spread of the primary credit rate relative to the general level of overnight interest rates should help encourage more active use of the window by depository institutions to meet unexpected funding needs. To further enhance the role of the discount window as a tool for banks in addressing potential funding pressures, the Board also today announced that depository institutions may borrow from the discount window for periods as long as 90 days, prepayable and renewable by the borrower on a daily basis. The Federal Reserve continues to accept the same broad range of collateral for discount window loans.
…
FT:
Wow, QE once started, is a hard drug for central banks to get off. Negative interest rates here we come!
I see Monday as a last ‘get out of jail free card’ > the market should pop and give people a chance to get out with smaller losses if they’re not in it for long haul. Will trim a couple of positions and hold a bit more cash.
Unfortunately, I still see more bad news to come from covid-19 economic impact, further panic on the stock market Over next months and diminishing impact of further QE (which is inevitable there will be more rounds).
Where do you check the futures? Just want to know about them.
And equity futures are already down 4%.
Futures are indeed down 1000 points…
Stock market futures hit “limit down” levels of 5% lower, a move made by the CME futures exchange to reduce panic in markets. No prices can trade below that threshold, only at higher prices than that down 5% limit.
Maybe time for a sweepstake into how long into Monday before the emergency brake is applied.
http://reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/fj6bdh/we_are_now_in_the_10th_official_bear_market_since/
Pretty interesting post on the previous bear markets, how far they dropped and time taken to recover.
For those without a Reddit account:
The Bear Market of 1956-1957:
Max. Pullback: -21.5%
Start: August 6th, 1956
Bottom: October 22th 1957.
Recovery: Septemer 24th, 1958 (15 months to bottom; 11 months for recovery)
Catalyst: The “Eisenhower Recession” of 1957-'58 that lasted 8 months.
The Bear Market of 1961-1962:
Max. Pullback: -28%
Start: December 13th, 1961
Bottom: June 26th, 1962
Recovery: September 3rd, 1963 (7 months to bottom; 14 months for recovery)
Catalyst: Flash Crash of 1961-'62: The “Kennedy Slide”. Market came close to the bottom again during the Cuban Missile Crisis in Oct 1962.
The Bear Market of 1966:
Max. Pullback: -22.2%
Start: February 10th, 1966
Bottom: October 7th, 1966
Recovery: May 4th, 1967 (8 months to bottom; 7 months for recovery)
Catalyst: Financial Crisis/Credit Crunch of 1966.
The Bear Market of 1968-1970:
Max. Pullback: -36.1%
Start: December 2nd, 1968
Bottom: May 26th, 1970
Recovery: March 6th, 1972 (18 months to bottom; 22 months for recovery)
Catalyst: 1969-'70 Recession - a “mild one” that lasted 11 months.
The Bear Market of 1973-1974:
Max. Pullback: -48.2%
Start: January 12th, 1973
Bottom: October 3rd, 1974
Recovery: July 17th, 1980 (21 months to bottom; 70 months for recovery)
Catalyst: Oil crisis of 1973, 1973-'75 recession that lasted 17 months, stagflation (high unemployment & high inflation).
The Bear Market of 1980-1982:
Max. Pullback: -27.1%
Start: November 21st 1980
Bottom: August 12th, 1982
Recovery: November 3rd, 1982 (21 months to bottom; 3 months for recovery)
Catalyst: Volcker tightening and 1981-'82 recession that lasted 18 months. Recession ended in 1982, as bear market recovered to prior peak.
The Bear Market of 1987:
Max. Pullback: -33.5%
Start: August 26th, 1987
Bottom: December 4th, 1987
Recovery: July 26th, 1989 (3 months to bottom; 20 months for recovery)
Catalyst: Black Monday (Oct 19), but bottom was only in Dec. Recovery surprisingly long but Fed made a series of rate hikes in 1988 to fight inflation.
The Bear Market of 2000-2002:
Max. Pullback: -49.1%
Start: March 27th, 2000
Bottom: October 9th, 2002
Recovery: May 30th, 2007 (31 months to bottom - 56 months for recovery)
Catalyst: Dot-com crash, 2001 recession, 9/11.
The Bear Market of 2007-2009:
Max. Pullback: -56.8%
Start: October 10th 2007
Bottom: March 9th, 2009
Recovery: March 28th, 2013 (17 months to bottom; 49 months for recovery)
Catalyst: Housig bubble crash, Great Financial Crisis.
The Bear Market of 2020-?:
Max. Pullback: -26.7% (so far…)
Start: February 20th, 2020
Bottom: ?
Recovery: ?
Catalyst: COVID-19.
Conclusions:
Worse the drawdown, larger the gain required to hit prior peak.
• -20% → +25% to recover
• -25% → +33%
• -30% → +43%
• -35% → +54%
• -50% → +100%
• -60% → +150%In other words, deeper the drawdown, longer the recovery. (eg, 1973-'74, 2000-'02, 2007-'09)
Last but not least:
Since 1950-
Fastest crash: 1987 bear market (3 months)
Fastest recovery: 1980-1982 bear market (3 months)
6 out of 9 bear markets came amid recessions.
3 of the worst bear markets came amid deep recessions (1973-'74, 2000-'02, 2007-'09).
NYC, California to close bars, wineries, cinemas. All food is takeout only and schools to shut down in New York, effective Tuesday.
Emergency coronavirus bill could be introduced next week after cases reach 456 | Metro News (last week’s article)
What really matters now is how the bond market opens on Monday. If bonds and stocks go both down, after the Fed has fired their last bullet by announcing zero interest rates and further QE, then the US economy is in real trouble.
Also gotta keep an eye out on the credit markets. Fed pumped in $1.5 trillion repo and with nearly zero liquidity, there still were very few bids for it. It’s freezing up.
You are absolutely spot on. Judging by the Aussie market fall of 10% (worst day ever) it will be a bloodbath.
Who’s ready for another day of plummeting?!
Why not I have a few £’s to spend.
I’m just getting into it - but I’ve been watching closely these last 2 weeks. UK and USA markets
