For some reason I donāt think the US stock market will drop another 10% or more . So Iāll average out most of my US stocks to a 10% loss buffer to add to the momentum when it happens. I think UK will drop further with a likely recession on the cards. Emerging markets is the less volatile atm. But now is about picking good individual stocks. Thereās a few good ones at current prices.
I donāt think weāve reached mass panic yet. When the US shuts down entirely in the next week or two, things will continue to freefall and whipsaw around as markets find a bottom. The US have not quite grasped the impact of this yet.
After that I expect markets to recover their poise, rise dramatically for no good reason and eventually find reason after a few months and start pricing on value again, at which point the real bear market will begin, which is looking like it might last a while as the rolling layoffs & bankruptcies spread throughout industries like tech which emerge relatively unscathed from the initial problems. There are tens of thousands of startups for example living off pretty much free money, and when that stops they shut. This is going to get ugly and last a long time.
I sincerely hope thatās wrong and we get a V shaped recovery as you might expect from a one-off exogenous shock like this - the difficulty I see with that is suppression measures may need to last 4-8 months, enough to kill entire industries. Hopefully weāll get back to normal within 3 months and governments will act more significantly to support businesses.
I personally donāt see huge demographic changes as in the end probably not more than 1 million will die globally, which is not enough to impact demographics. The suppression measures will have a profound impact on economies though.
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Wise words
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Couldnāt agree more with the above post. Youāve also got earnings still to come, the next two quarters releases is when we will truly see how bad many of these companies have been/will be hit.
When you read the comments associated with that post it shows how entitled this generation has become. If anything comes from this it will be a wake up call to live within our means, have an emergency fund, minimise debt, credit and finance.
I was guilty of that myself for many years, and even until just recently, but hopefully this will change the way people manage the financial side of things, it will for me for sure.
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I had surgery two weeks ago. My temperature was up and down for a few weeks.
It was open sinus rhino plasty, so Iāve been going to work with sutures up my nose, sneezing and bleeding. I got some funny looks !
Everythingās better now though.
I reckon Carnival and Boeing could very much be on the brink 
Iād avoid both at all costs, far far too risky!!
Boeing will he bailed out. Not sure if carnival will though. How important are cruise lines to the economy and the chances of Trumpās re-election, and especially the latter seems to drive any decision making.
Iāll pick up an arbitrary amount of Carnival. Itās hard to pinpoint a price at the moment with it shedding 10% daily.
Risky, but Carnival are best placed out of any listed cruise company. If they fail, that means the whole sector fails.
Carnival are well capitalised and have a large number of assets that can be sold off if needed.
(Indeed, another possible outcome is that they go the other way and swallow up more brands as smaller players are pushed into failure.)
But putting more money into any travel or tourism stock at this time is very, very risky.
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I see Financial Jeremy is big on both Carnival and Boeing, at these price points. All depends on the position size and risk tolerance for sure.
If this blows by and the stock rebounds in the next 12 months, youāll be a very happy investor for sure!!
I just feel that there are better positioned companies out there that have seen tremendous drops as well. Shell at sub Ā£10, Square down with 50%, Legal and General down with 50% as well, etc.
After all that happened, are people really going to jump en-masse on cruise ships in the next 12 months? On the other hand, people still will have to pay in shops, buy petrol and pay into pensions.
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Indeed - just look at someone like Admiral. If you zoom out from the day to day noise, itās hardly moved over the last few weeks.
Agree with you 100% buddy, there are better prospects out there.
Boeing are huge, much more than just an airline. They will be fine.
Term of the day: volatility doom loop.
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