Coronavirus and Stock Markets - Thoughts?

Not my opinion. An article posted by CNBC.

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Exactly, These people still comparing it to flu don’t seem to have noticed that flu doesn’t overwhelm the health service and lead to massive shortages of equipment every year

I can’t believe people are still in denial about this

I posted the article because there were some interesting points raised.
A decision to place a country into full lockdown and bringing on a severe economic downturn ultimately resulting in poverty, suffering and deaths versus saving lives by locking down. I agree with the lockdown and get the seriousness of the virus outbreak. It just made me think about the very grim choices governments have to make at a high level.

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Agreed. And we’re seeing many multiples more cases of young, healthy people with no underlying health problems succumbing to it. The flu simply doesn’t do that!

Why don’t people realise this!?

The article doesn’t appear to be from CNBC.

There is a balancing act between protecting public health and the economy, most clearly exemplified by Trump wanting to have the USA open again by Easter! However, it’s fair to say that “severe economic downturn” actually ends up being on both sides of the choices.

Can’t have a functioning economy if everyone is dead.
thinkingguy

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It wouldn’t be everyone, going on what’s been reported in the news probably a single figure %
Anyway it was retweeted by CNBC and others when I ran a search I could see David Icke was one of them. So its probably not worth anymore debate

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@jbowen I’ll be the first to defend a plurality of views but the article you posted is not from a credible source and is quite dangerous, but that’s the point.

I’m in full agreement with you @HoldenCarver - worse still globalresearch.ca is a known source of disinformation, unfortunately part of a well oiled machine. And they defend themselves by supporting and publishing criticism, as it perpetuates the myth that they are ‘onto something’.

Health warning on the above: Bellingcat has also has an agenda.

ICYAMI, for a little more context this is excellent
Health warning 2. it’s over two and half hours long.

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FT:

Screenshot from 2020-04-04 14-00-00

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:frowning:

Just been catching up with Last Week Tonight with John Oliver, and he tackled almost this exact argument with the following words:

“This [relaxing lockdown to aid economy] isn’t trading one bad outcome for another bad outcome, it’s trading one bad outcome for both bad outcomes. It’s shitting on your cake and choking on it too.”

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This website is pretty good for a balanced and facts based approach away from headline grabbing articles and spin

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One knock-on effect that’s not really being spoken about given the pedestal the NHS is currently being put on, is the cancellation of elective surgeries and even in some cases chemo.

But look what is happening in the US due to similar policies, those surgeries and treatments are what pay the bills


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"There is a clear rule at present: Died with the corona virus or died from the corona virus both count for the statistics.“ No difference is made as to what the patient actually died of. In other words, a 90-year-old man who dies with a fracture of the femoral neck and becomes infected with corona in the hours prior to his death is also counted as corona death. To name but one example.“

“In a world first, the Swedish government [has announced]”(Coronavirus: Why the Swedish experiment could prove Britain wrong) that it is going to officially distinguish between deaths „by“ and deaths „with“ the coronavirus, which should lead to a reduction in reported deaths. Meanwhile, international pressure on Sweden to abandon its liberal strategy is steadily increasing. Some governments may fear that a success by Sweden (as by Japan before) could make their own measures appear disproportionate and counterproductive."

I find these statements from that website troublesome

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DIY masks can save lives. Save proper ones for the NHS.

Republic and Slovakia are only countries in Europe to make coronavirus mask-wearing mandatory

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Because people are generally “stupid”

Howard Marks latest memo:
https://www.oaktreecapital.com/insights/howard-marks-memos

(this is not an investment advice)

“Market dislocations of this magnitude happen rarely, perhaps once or twice in a generation, and have historically provided excellent entry points for investors,” SCM fund manager Mark Asquith wrote in a note to clients.

“History has shown us that super normal returns can be made during this type of environment.”




The firm said assets in Latin America, Europe, the Middle East and Asia were cheap following the recent heavy falls in global stock markets. Asquith noted that in the 12 months following the 2008 global financial crisis, the value of smaller companies in emerging markets rose more than 150%, with some Brazilian firms surging by about 500% within two years.

Gates has looked at the available vaccines and decided to build factories for seven of them. “Even though we’ll end up picking at most two of them, we’re going to fund factories for all seven just so we don’t waste time in serially saying ‘ok which vaccine works’ and then building the factory.”

Gates explained that he has a luxury that governments don’t: He can move fast with both testing and ensuring manufacturing capacity for multiple promising vaccines at the same time, in the hopes of bringing at least one to market as soon as possible.

“It’ll be a few billion dollars we’ll waste on manufacturing for the constructs that don’t get picked because something else is better. But a few billion in this situation we’re in, where there’s trillions of dollars being lost economically, it is worth it,” Gates said. He added that the Gates Foundation can get that bootstrapped “and get it going and save months because every month counts.”

“Things can reopen, if we do the right things, in the summer, but it won’t be completely normal,” he said, adding that we’ll still be very worried, and we may end up using masks out in the open. These extraordinary measures would stay in place until the entire population is vaccinated to minimize the damage.

Earlier this week, Gates authored an op-ed in The Washington Post, where he explained how the world can make up for the lost time. Vaccines and related logistics were among his priorities:

To bring the disease to an end, we’ll need a safe and effective vaccine. If we do everything right, we could have one in less than 18 months — about the fastest a vaccine has ever been developed. But creating a vaccine is only half the battle. To protect Americans and people around the world, we’ll need to manufacture billions of doses. (Without a vaccine, developing countries are at even greater risk than wealthy ones, because it’s even harder for them to do physical distancing and shutdowns.)

We can start now by building the facilities where these vaccines will be made. Because many of the top candidates are made using unique equipment, we’ll have to build facilities for each of them, knowing that some won’t get used. Private companies can’t take that kind of risk, but the federal government can. It’s a great sign that the administration made deals this week with at least two companies to prepare for vaccine manufacturing. I hope more deals will follow.

Thanks, Bill & Melinda.

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kind of related

FT:

US shareholders brace for nine-year squeeze on dividends

Recovery in payouts expected to take longer than after 2008 crisis

Dividends paid to investors by big US companies will take nine years to recover from the downturn caused by coronavirus, according to bets in the futures market, marking the biggest hit to corporate payouts since the second world war.

Companies in the S&P 500 delivered almost half a trillion dollars in dividends last year, or $56 per share. But companies around the world have come under pressure to cut payouts to shareholders and focus on keeping up payments to workers and other stakeholders, now that the virus has in many cases hit revenues.

It will take until 2028 to beat the tally from 2019, according to the prices of futures contracts linked to annual dividends for the benchmark. That compares with the three years dividends took to recover after the 2008-09 financial crisis and a 19-year run from the Great Depression through to 1949, according to data compiled by Robert Shiller, the Yale University economist.