Coronavirus and Stock Markets - Thoughts?

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Another one, our good friend Tesla up 105% during what is a once in a century pandemic. And the first time the world has been lockdown since Jesus and Moses were walking this earth …It’s almost as if Coronavirus doesn’t exist…:man_shrugging:t3::joy:

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McKinsey: A global view of how consumer behavior is changing amid COVID-19

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I don’t understand Tesla… Makes me feel completely stupid

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It’s definitely not a car company. An industry of one.

A Cybertruck is what we need for this post-apocalytic world.

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Tesla is a stock that trades completely detached to any market fundamentals or financial principles. That’s why I just don’t bother with it and let the fans trade it.

As for the market I still have no idea what is actually going on. The market really seems to overextend their hopes on those Fed loans. We will see how this pans out, but I don’t believe you can save a company from bankruptcy with more debt.

I feel like this market is only going to start going lower when we see a big company going under. It seems like the market doesn’t care about the average Joe losing their job or people unable to pay rent. Really twisted and frankly shortsighted the markets are acting these days, but that’s how I see it.

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Some great stuff on this puzzling situation in the latest Howard Marks memo

the rules of the investment profession seem to require that its members describe their views about the future using high-sounding terms like ā€œanalysis,ā€ ā€œassessment,ā€ ā€œprojection,ā€ ā€œpredictionā€ and ā€œforecast.ā€ Rarely do we see the word ā€œguess.ā€

https://www.oaktreecapital.com/insights/howard-marks-memos

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I’ve been utterly baffled. I assume its the promise of cash (I.e debt). So the stock markets just continue like nothing has happened. Its totally bewildering. I’m letting my stocks go green and selling as they do. I’m gathering cash. I will keep amazon (amazon doesn’t seem to have ever really been impacted) and certain others I think will have a great future.

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Also ZOOM’s share price :fire: .

Speaking of fire, hair product sales are also up:

Sales of hair clippers increased 166% and hair coloring products rose 23%, from the same period a year earlier, according to Nielsen.

And baking has gone viral:

In the weeks ending March 21 and March 28, baking yeast sales grew more than any other consumer packaged goods product, up 647% and 457%, respectively, over the same weeks in 2019. Spiral hams were also popular, with sales spiking 622% and 413%, in that same time period, according to Nielsen.

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/04/11/business/panic-buying-walmart-hair-color-coronavirus/index.html

:scissors:

I’m sitting on my cash right now and not buying anything because the rally doesn’t make sense to me. That my brain tells me that at some point the box will be opened and the market will fall again.

Stock market seems to be trading on magic numbers right now. Possibly helped by all the new investors rushing in to ā€˜buy the dip’ and ā€˜be brave while others other are fearful’. In some ways, troubled companies are akin to Schroedinger’s Cat - a company could plot a path to recovery, or it could be collapsing, but while the health crisis is ongoing, no-one wants to open the box and find out right now - as the story below illustrates:

And a line near the end of the story says:

Experts believe that once the worst of the public health crisis is over, many companies will be forced into Chapter 11.

To paraphrase Susan Ivanova: No bust today. Bust tomorrow. There’s always a bust tomorrow.

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US earnings calendar

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More of the same :man_shrugging:

Later this month, there will be the usual flurry of reports on everything from housing to manufacturing and consumer confidence. Investors probably will still ignore most of it.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-14/wall-street-turns-a-blind-eye-to-catastrophic-u-s-economic-data?srnd=premium-europe

Maybe Tom and Jerry tried to teach us something.

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Article - China didn't warn public of likely pandemic for 6 key days | AP News

New US stimulus proposal:

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Really interesting data. Thank you for posting.
Tom

The current crisis has had me thinking a lot about who will fare best in the current market conditions. With a looming recession, it will be mainly small, unknowing private investors ā€žbuying the dipā€œ because of fear of missing out or their bank ā€žadvisorsā€œ telling them that now would be the best time to buy.

The recession will hit small investors disproportionally hard and will only exacerbate this trend posted in the WSJ:

What is your take on this?