To put things in perspectives, I am looking at a Freetrade Deck from 2019.
The expected numbers at the end of 2021 were :
1.02m users
1.35bn£ AUA
So, the AUA per users is a bit lower than expected but it looks like we will be hitting the AUA target of yearās end and we will exceed the users target ! So all in, pretty good !
Free money is a proven way to get people onto platforms though. It works really well generally. I wouldnāt worry about that. How massively it can help is well described by Peter Thiel and Paypal in his zero to one book.
Ā£1bn AUM is very low also comparing to some other fintech players, for example:
Moneybox £2bn with 650k users
Trading 212 £1.5bn with 1.5m users
Pension Bee £2bn with around 155k users
Money farm £1.6bn
In April/May 2021 the company had around Ā£150m AUM with 150k users (Ā£1k per user), so thats means that the AUM per user didnāt really increase in the last 12 months.
thats means 2 things In my opinion:
the new users achieved in the Game Stop saga are very small investors:
It has also been the downfall of some companies. Besides, I am not against the free money aspect, just think they could direct it towards customers who would then fund every month and show a loyalty to existing customers who invest. This would build long term growth and be something that stands out against the ever increasing number of very similar start ups competing for the same crowd.
It would also help prevent the people who change constantly for the next offer as the monthly prize is a big incentive. As I said similar to Nationwide in what seems a great scheme.
I donāt think that Pension Bee is a fair comparable due to the fact that it holds pensions which are almost guaranteed to be contributed to each month and likely not to be withdrawn for a long time. I appreciate that FT do SIPP but not sure if this is as valid as many want the ability to set and forget with pensions and I think they donāt offer this (please correct me if Iām wrong).
I also think that once/if FT launch the LISA and JISA this will pull AUA up massively as I think many people are waiting on these to fully transfer from other legacy brokers.
I think that the best comparable would be Robinhood as they are also another challenger broker.
The reason HLās AUA is so high is because itās got a lot of features that many experienced investors want. A Ā£12 commission is peanuts to a lot of their customer base. AUA will improve once FTās products mature.
Things that HL have over FT currently:
You wonāt see people move SIPPs from HL to FT until there are good options to access a crystallised pension.
HLās website is superior in terms of data and research on Shares, ETFs, ITs
Also FT need to find a way to automate the PTM levy to attract the large ISAs and SIPPs. Many of HL users trade in the 10s of thousands and so it might frustrate them to have to split their orders.
The larger pots have been invested with HL for a long time and itās going to take time to persuade them that FT is a safe place to put their millions.
AUA will grow more organically if Freetrade stick to their mission to get everyone (mainly the 20-40 crowd) into regular and long term investing.
The assets under management figure will grow exponentially for Freetrade, as it is a business that now attacts millenials that start their investment journey. These millenials will have bigger and bigger portfolios as the times passes. The 1BĀ£ figure is impressive. Well done to all involved and hopefully the next billions is close.
As surprised as I am itās not higher, I donāt think it will impact Freetradeās share price that much, since the average holding is pretty much the same as the last update we got.
As Freetrade doesnāt take a % of portfolio in revenue, itās really just a vanity metric for Freetrade (unlike HL etc who do).
I still think Freetrade is at least a and value per user would be > 900 for a crowdfund.
Few things:
Crypto would drive this figure much higher
Freetrade should eventually pivot towards higher net worth investors, PMT levy for example should of been implemented ages ago.