GameStop - GME - Share Chat

Anyone watching L2 data from NYSE and know what’s going on with the order book…? Crazy high asks showing up on the book and in the spread graphs for moments then disappearing.

Guessing it’s a technical issue, just haven’t seen anything like this before (but I’m not particularly experience when it comes to watching L2 stocks data and I can’t trust the source… someone’s streaming it on youtube! Says its NYSE data.)

I don’t understand how the ask list can ever dry up either and just show “- -”. There surely must be asks and bids outside of the list that should be filling it up.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2021-02-03/citadel-s-link-to-the-gamestop-stock-market-frenzy-video

“The man behind the firm with its fingers in every Wall Street pie has attracted the ire of day traders”

The general rule with these sort of online movements is that as soon as the goalposts move, it’s all over. The original hype was around The Short Squeeze, and as soon as that didn’t pan out the goalposts have been shifted, now it’s all about the new executives and ladder attacks and so on and so forth.

Everybody knows that people are buying GME because they want to make money, and the narrative was that it’s easy money “…because of the esoteric mechanics of the market (short squeeze) mean it must go up…” so it was an obvious buy for anyone who believed that… now the narrative is “…well they hired some good people…” but that’s just routine news, it’s not a buy signal for people who don’t know about the market (but want to get rich quickly) and people buying will be the only way GME is going up[1].

Regardless of the current price and regardless of the volatility and regardless of tweets from Elon, this is over. I expect we’ll see the price trend down by another 50% over the next week before a small rally and then a further slump as it settles at a price around $40. People on wallstreetbets usually lose everything (and more) and sometimes kill themselves because of it – it’s not an investment club, anybody holding GME shares for weeks is deviating from the way people in wallstreetbets make money.

I think the key mistake people make is looking at this situation as some sort of well defined and well understood market mechanic that has a template to follow, when in reality “the market” is… people and systems built by those people. The Robinhood + Citadel conspiracy is a good example of that, people have created a narrative to explain why a well understood mechanic is responsible for what happened with Robinhood, when in reality this has never happened before so of course there’s going to be nutty things happen, of course systems are going to crumble, of course there’ll be unexpected behaviour.

Any situation in which there is some sort of exploit or trick or magic available to us to make money, is a situation in which there is a greater fool… and anybody who cannot name the greater fool in their transaction, is the greater fool. At this point, can anybody still holding name the greater fool coming to buy their GME at a higher price than they paid?

Disclaimer: I have no position in GME.

[1] unless you believe that The Short Squeeze is actually coming and there’ll be hedgefunds buying at $1000/share because they have to rather than out of choice but I think we all know that isn’t coming.

5 Likes

So nobody buying this dip then? :rofl:

2 Likes

420.69 :laughing:

Interesting your account is only 40mins and already posting re meme stocks: GME

Even though I am a value investor the fuckery being played by the SEC, Retail Brokers and Wall St is shocking and needs to be protested against. On all m social media platforms I am seeing ‘newly created’ accounts pop up weighing in on current events and spreading fake news. Sad state of affairs.
Respect to Freetrade for not getting political.

1 Like

Funny thing that raoring kitty aka deepf----ingvalue person who helped propel GME on reddit by showing his returns – he invested in GME as a value stonk. he was in early!!

A “cigar butt” investment :dog:

I’ve been reading this thread for a couple of weeks, I’ve been reading wallstreetbets for years and years, I’ve been involved in personal finance discussions online for more than a decade. As you get older it becomes less exciting to jump into conversations as soon as you see them. I have zero institutional involvement, and nothing to gain or lose from the fallout of GME[1]. I’m sharing my view because someone asked a question that I think I have an answer to that perhaps wouldn’t be given otherwise, you’re welcome to discredit me on the basis of my account being new if you like, I won’t take offence.

[1] Actually, I stand to gain entertainment and insight from it transpiring there really was a grand conspiracy between Citadel et al. so I’d enjoy that happening but unfortunately I’m familiar enough with The Market to know there’s no reason to believe there is a conspiracy. Anybody who has worked in fintech (as I begrudgingly have) knows they’re not “the system but better” but instead just a bunch of engineers frantically trying to understand the financial system and sellotaping a bunch of half-understood features to create “the system but with with a nicer interface”. The idea that Robinhood had a system that had limitations (that is, they didn’t have enough cash and no planned mechanism to access cash as their cash needs grew) is so believable that I’d be blown away if it wasn’t true. The alternate story is that Robinhood had a system that was capable of supporting unprecedented market behaviour, that would blow my mind.

3 Likes

This was obvious to people on WSB through December and early January and sure there were people pushing thousands into GME. I’m sure some of them made a lot of money if they sold last week. You’re right it completely changed, most people still holding have 1/2 shares and are fighting a new battle and I think they are long past thinking about profits.

1 Like

I think it’s worth noting that in large part wsb was actually a set of fairly sophisticated investors. If you look at the big meme stocks from 2017,2018: Tesla, AMD, JD.com, Micron they actually represented decent value back then. (I know now /r/wsb has a much more critical view of Tesla, but that wasn’t the case when it was undervalued)

The difference is wsb went to great lengths to appear stupid, even while indulging in intellectual snobbery mocking the financial illiteracy of other broader communities like /r/stocks /r/investing /r/bitcoin.

I can’t believe people were surprised that DFV held CFA, I wouldn’t be surprised if 10-20% of WSB were CFA or worked finance.

Like everything else that starts ironic, eventually you get sincere people joining, assuming they are among friends. Which of course wsb loved, because then they don’t need to crosspost from /r/stocks to laugh at people they can watch new members blow up their account with options strategies they don’t understand.

Until now of course, where it’s gone so far that wsb looks like /r/bitcoin did in 2018 (HODL + conspiracy theories)

So for the above reasons I’m convinced most of WSB were the ones selling to the new membership. Further evidenced that it peaked just shy of the original $420 limit order meme.

It’s patently clear that for a sufficiently capitalised fund shorting gamestop was free money in the $1,2,300s (even if you needed to reserve a load of collateral). Once the people shorting at $5 and not holding $1,000 per share reserved were gone there wasn’t really much risk any more.

When we trade via Ftrade or Revolut, we trade via Drivewealth. They even had a trading app but changed the biz model to somethin more scalable like selling shovels and rails.

there’re a lot of smart people on WSB and r/stocks and r/investing and r/… just having fun.

People who sit in banks trading other ppls money and use Bloombergs terminals for chat talk smack all the time…

1 Like

Yes exactly and yet now you have conspiracies upvoted that anyone with a terminal can disprove in about 30 seconds. It’s a completely different audience now.

yall, I literally learnt about 23andMe going public via r/stocks, this is incredible. It’s my bloomie terminal except I dont have to pay $$$25k a year. Crowdsourcing! Internet! Memes? Stonks. Research

I noticed there s a lot of pumping with momentum strategies online like twitter and reddit, beware… Most of us wont know what we doing…

But seriously Citadel are the new Goldman Sachs vampire squid. They literally are in everythin. I read thru SEC and other filings and its sad. Wish we held stonks in Citadel?

I think the battle is mostly a red herring, it’s more so about the community and the myth of the potential upside. People are bored and want to be a part of something, whether it’s a battle against the shorts or… literally anything, people will join in. The recipe is basically: some people get rich of something + a narrative about how other people can get rich in the same way.

GME was about The Short Squeeze, but it could have been about why bananas are superior to apples. If someone said they became rich off of bananas being superior to apples you can be sure that there’ll be people like us in a thread like this arguing the relative superiority of apples and bananas. The Short Squeeze narrative is more compelling than most because it hits on the wealth disparity, but that isn’t fundamental to the behaviour we’ve seen.

I would bet that the majority of people still holding GME sincerely believe they will make a profit off of it, and they are enjoying being part of the community rallying around something.

A similar situation happened with MoviePass a few years ago, many people continued to shovel money in to MoviePass even when it was circling the drain simply because “…if I buy 100,000 shares and it hits $10/share again I’ll be rich…” even though there was no battle, no grand mission, and zero prospect of MoviePass surviving (let alone becoming worth anything)… but because some people had got rich, and it gave people a sense of community, people kept buying.

I’m not sure how true it is to say they were pretending. There is absolutely some very smart people in wsb but the make-up of the subreddit is misleading because of how reddit works. Reddit isn’t a forum like this with equality of posts, posts in wallstreetbets are as much about the person posting it and the cult of personality that comes from that – there’s always some flavour of the month person who everyone follows blindly. Yes, people play a stupid character there but it doesn’t mean beneath that character is intelligence.

I think this argues the opposite of your point: most people in wallstreetbets lose money, and DFV – a person with market smarts – spent more than a year sharing well reasoned analysis of why GME was worth betting on and he barely got a sniff from the community… it wasn’t until very recently that anybody cared about GME, and not until GME’s behaviour started to validate DFV’s analysis did people trust DFV. I’d think anybody in the finance world would look at the analysis from DFV and take an obvious position, but very few did.

Crypto is probably one of the best templates for this sort of activity, “partnerships” are my favourite goal post in crypto.

1 Like

I’m not so sure that’s always been the case, I think that’s what they like to upvote.

Right, but that was like late 2019, WSB was massive then and those posts barely surfaced and were just a screenshot of a position that didn’t contain a thesis (or it was on a comment with like 3 upvotes that no one even saw).

Even then the most upvoted comments on his early posts do at least make sensible points that the spread on the options he bought are insane - which is not a stupid observation.

I just think there’s a big difference between what you see (the image presented and the submissions upvoted) and the quiet majority voting, commenting and buying. Obviously I’m not suggesting they are all geniuses, but I don’t think the opposite is true either

If you look at the December GME surveys most of the value held by WSB was in small accounts with a few $k in shares, not the few whales with $100ks in LEAPs. I imagine these people were mostly selling in the run up as their position 10-20Xed

1 Like

Interesting chart comparison of the ‘organic price movement’ of the two stocks in the last 7 days.

4 Likes