How is the US election affecting the stock market? 🇺🇸

Hi everyone

You may have seen @DavidK’s recent article exploring how big events like Brexit, Covid-19 and of course the US election may affect the stock market.

Well, the big day is upon us :us:

Will a Trump presidency look good to some investors? Until the pandemic struck, the US had record levels of unemployment and an economy that seemed to be functioning well on the back of reduced regulations and lower taxes.

Or will a Biden presidency, which may include tighter regulations on tech firms and energy businesses, be attractive to some investors?

Let us know your thoughts below :point_down:


This should not be read as personal investment advice and individual investors should make their own decisions or seek independent advice. When you invest, your capital is at risk.

Democrats = another war to happen again. I dont want wars, so trump and not sleepy joe

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I’m curious as to where you think this war will happen?

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That i dont know and cannot tell you. The guest list is with joe

:roll_eyes:

Since 1900, 35 conflicts have been launched by Republican administrations compared to 23 by Democrats

Also, Trump has launched much more and more deadly drone strikes than Obama.

Since the Civil War about 98% of war deaths are from wars started while the President was a Democrat. Here is a list:

World War II 405K Roosevelt Democrat

World War I 116K Wilson Democrat

Vietnam 58K Kennedy or Johnson Democrat

Korea 36K Truman Democrat

Iraq 4K Bush Republican

Philippines 4K McKinley Republican

Spanish-American 2K McKinley Republican

Afghanistan 2K Bush Republican

So you have 625K deaths in wars started under Democrats and 12K deaths in wars started under Republicans.

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Vast majority are from WW1 & 2…
Really twisting the stats there! :rofl:

Load of rubbish saying there’s going to be another war simply because a democrat could become president.

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Vietnam was certainly not a high point for American foreign policy but the Korean war was sanctioned by the UN so hardly controversial (at least as far as wars go) and I think it would be unfair to blame any president for the world wars, especially WW2 given the attack on pearl harbour. So I think that’s skewed by wars where a republican president would have done the same (and I imagine the republicans would have supported them at the time, although I haven’t checked this)

These are not my calculations. What if what you are calling rubbish turns out to be true if joe wins? Anyway, i am favouring trump :slight_smile:

Is this true or a guess?

I thought Obama and Biden have the record for most bombs dropped in a calendar year :thinking: killing thousands of innocents and displacing millions.

Whoever wins i think it will just be like we have seen in last 2 months. September 1st highs to September 21st lows to October 11-15th highs to October 29 lows.

20-30% swings for a lot of stocks, good opportunities? :sweat_smile:

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I know they’re not your calculations, but you’re using them in a way that I think is deceiving. Like Rob said above, what President wouldn’t retaliate against the Pearl Harbour attack?
What if Trump wins and starts a war? You can argue it either way…
Also let’s not use this thread to discuss who we would prefer to win (not doing yourself any favours either when you would prefer Trump!)

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It’s true, there are many sources e.g. https://m.washingtontimes.com/news/2020/sep/10/trump-takes-out-terrorists-boxes-biden-drone-strik/
The trump administration has also changed that civilian casualties aren’t officially reported anymore, which is why this is not more of a discussion point (and because Obama/Biden weren’t great at this either). Just suppressing all unfavorable information.
But that’s not really the topic here, so I’ll let it rest.

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As for the markets I think just having a clear result and getting rid of the uncertainty will be a big positive regardless of who wins. After that I think having a unified government (president and Congress) would be another boost due to increased stimulus. I think who the president actually is would have a lesser effect but it seems like Biden would be the preferred option for markets. Although it would vary a fair bit between different stocks

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It seems like they are only looking at drone strikes, not total bombs dropped which would put Obama-Biden significantly ahead based on every source I’ve seen. Syria & Libya were completely destroyed when Biden was VP.

(I don’t like Trump either, what a grim choice for Americans…)

As far as the stock market goes, mid-term it doesn’t matter who wins as Jerome Powell (FED) is desperate for another stimulus package and I think we will reach new highs.

Short term, I think we are in for some volatility, especially if the result is disputed :eyes:
If I had cash right now, I’d wait for a good buying opportunity!

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I know this is a political event but lets keep the politics out of here. It has become so divisive and polarising these days.

I’m expecting further stimulus regardless of who wins and hoping that it helps prop up the gold price seeing as i’m full to the brim with aim explorative gold mining stocks these days!

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If Republicans somehow win it means more stimulus pretty soon.

In the more likely event that Dems win it probably means larger stimulus measures, but not until Jan/Feb (especially if they get control of both chambers).

If polling is bad and dems win with a narrow margin it could get pretty ugly in the short term.

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After having seen market on this Monday and Tuesday I’m very optimistic. I think it will be very bullish if Trump accepts to lose the election.

If you look at the states left to count, it might be a small, but decisive victory for Trump.

There’s been talk about a Stamp duty like tax on the US markets under Biden, like what we have here in the U.K (you know the 0.5% fee)

I wonder if that will kill day trading / prop shops and HFT businesses there?