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After careful consideration and after consulting my vast GIF library I offer you âŠ
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Better than mine that celebrated 2019
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1,250,000 users milestone has been passed. Thats worth noting
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Would be fascinating to see how much the markets sell off is impacting the daily number of new user signs ups 
Are people hiding their cash in their mattress or are they opening accounts to take advantage of lower entry points?
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Worrying times as Robinhood is going to open today with a market cap of $8.38 billion value (ÂŁ6.36 billion valuation). This is significantly lower then itâs 2019 series D raise and nearly a 10th of its all time high.
This is extremely worrying for Freetradeâs valuation as Robinhood will be the closest comparable to Freetrade.
One metric of valuing both these business will be users and user value. (HENCE THIS WHOLE THREAD). Ignoring the fact that Robinhood probably has a higher user value (as they currently have more revenue streams at the moment such as profiting from selling its users order flows and through crypto. )
Using this metric:
Robinhood has 22.4 million users and a valuation of ÂŁ6.36billion thus each user has a market worth today of ÂŁ283.92.
If we apply this same metric to Freetrade on last user count of c.1.25 million users this means Freetrades current market value would be ÂŁ354.9 million. This is 46% bellow its December raise.
Why does this matter?
Well bar the obvious, this will mean Freetrade will struggle to raise its series C and if they are to raise they will be raising at a significantly lower value. Which will lead to significant dilution to all shareholders. A simular story that was seen at Monzo.
Freetrade are going to have to watch their burn rate significantly and be more careful how they allocate their capital. As the cost of capital will increase significantly, especailly with Interest rates set to fly.
Positive spin on this is the market was overvalued and hard to buy at some of these P/Eâs, a drop in the market will probably be good for the platform allowing people to buy back in to positions (Good for the FX fee), or new users may set up accounts in a similar vein to 2020.
Huge faith in the team and huge belief that we can get past this bear market. Though the game has changed significantly. Especially as the cost of living increases.
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But isnât Robinhoodâs reputation is even worse than AJ Bellâs?
In fact, this numbers exercise would be interesting if Robinhood was replaced with AJ Bell and some other UK/US based trading platforms.
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Freetrade is being valued on itâs potential future position, which is not the same as itâs current user numbers.
Taking some rough figures, about 7% of US population has a Robin hood account, whereas 2% of UK population has a Freetrade account.
Obviously other variables that are proâs and cons like Robinhoodâs additional revenue streams. And also factor in the projected expansion of the respective companies to other geographic markets.
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A.) They most definatly have a higher revenue per a user.
B.) There is no way of judging that they are growing faster/slower than Freetrade.
C.) I agree Freetrade is more ethical and I love the company mission statement, but that doesnât increase itâs valuation to an external investor.
D.) i am a freetrade investor and love the platform - its an objective market overview.
E.) Projected expansion can only be partially factored in as there is no evidence yet that we can dominate these markets which have both old and new incumbents in place
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Fair point, but RH did in fact betray its entire community and beyond.
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The 2 companies are not comparable.
- Robinhood makes 50% of their revenues from options (Freetrade does not allow options);
- Just 14% of Robinhood revenues come from ânormalâ equity trading.
Plus there are regulatory issues that could make Robinhood revenues go to 0 overnight if the SEC will ban Payment for Order Flow.
While its interesting to compare FT as Robinhodd of Europe, a deep analysis of the business model (and revenues model) of the 2 companies make the comparison useless in my opinion.
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So trade republic at their series C was valued at 66% of Robinhoods current market cap, and had cash in the bank from that raise of $750million, not too shy of Freetrade entire valuation a couple months ago. This with trade republic having somewhere in the order of 1million users, comparable to freetrade.
Can we poach whoever negotiated that series C of theirs and get them to do the FT series C for us please @adam ?
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Looks like all the really successful raises have been advised by FT Partners (https://www.ftpartners.com/) They have such deep knowledge of whatâs going on in the market - theyâre best positioned to help.
I think it may do in the near future though. There may be competition for investment opportunities in ethical companies.
Getting back on topic, new referral signed up at 5.30 tonight - user 1,267,2XX
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This gives us an average of 1,274 for (most of) January.
Next big milestone 1,500,000 would be 182 days away a the current rate
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I know weâve said it for a year now but surely EU expansion will be here and the rate should increase before then 
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The rate wonât increase much when they launch in Sweden, currently only a few thousand on the waitlist. Once they launch in multiple countries weâll get a nice uptick in sure 
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But when 
The wait is excruciatingâŠ
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We might not have our EU licence but what is stopping us launch in Aus / Canada in the next 6 months?
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