Just to clarify, do you mean Freetrade will never have the same amount of users as Robinhood at the same time as Robinhood? Or do you think Freetrade will never get to 10m users?
As an investor in Freetrade, I find this topic very interesting.
Around 55% (110m) of the US adult population owns shares, which is certainly impressive.
Europe and the rest of the world is more effort to find statistics on, but I found a few (do you have a good source?).
- 33% (~17m adults) of Brits own shares (source)
- 14.7% (~10m adults) of Germans own shares (source)
- 18% (~9m adults) of French people hold a PEA or a securities account (source)
- 15% (~2m) of the Dutch won shares (source)
- 45% (~22m adults) Italians invest in stocks and bonds (source)
- 37% (6.9m) Australians invest on a securities exchanges (source)
I picked these countries because they either are already named Freetrade expansion targets, or should be (ignoring the fact Freetrade have said ârest of Europeâ before). In Australia, for example, share trading is expensive and Stake (as a similar company) is not great (forced to hold USD, extra fees, can only invest in US shares, not ASX, LSE, etc.).
While the EU is a single market in many ways, I totally agree that these are different countries that will need different approaches. I donât think that language is a big barrier for an app (the Freetrade app already has lots of European translations hidden inside it), but all the acompanying marketing, education, etc. will be more challenging than just English. Different account types and regulations too.
The education piece is important. In researching the above numbers, a common theme of those articles was to continue the sentence by saying âX% invest in shares⊠but donât know wtf theyâre doingâ (maybe they used different words). I think a lot of people, millenials especially, feel like stock markets arenât for them, theyâre scared of it, have heard horror stories, donât know what theyâre doing, and therefore stay away. Companies like Freetrade are aiming to change that. This will open up a lot of opportunity. Robinhood has already done that quite a bit in the US.
There are almost twice as many adults in the EU compared to the US. I think that with the educational strategy, or just sheer numbers since the percentages arenât that low in some countries, Freetrade will easily reach 10m users in the future. Not tomorrow, but in some years from now.
Back to my original clarification question. Will Freetrade ever have more users than Robinhood? I donât know, but I think itâs certainly possible. The world is huge and Robinhood have failed multiple times at trying to expand outside of the US. They have a heap of capital and pre-existing tech, so I imagine theyâll succeed eventually, but in the meantime other players are getting established and this isnât a winner takes all market by any means.
There is a question of whether Robinhoodâs business model is sustainable in other countries with the UK, EU, Australia (and others?) banning payment for order flow (Robinhoodâs primary revenue stream). To your point, the US market is huge, so itâs not like theyâre going to suffer by focusing on their home market (unless the SEC continues to bother them). Thereâs still heaps of marketshare to take from incumbents there.
Meanwhile, Freetrade are moving forward and growing. Theyâre still in their infancy but the future still looks positive. The raw number of users is not a good metric, of course, but itâs the best one we have between raises or other company announcements. All the good metrics (active users, funds under management, Plus subscriptions, user behaviour, churn, customer acquisition costs) are internal. I still think the future looks good, and that theyâll get to 10m users eventually. Honestly, I donât think they have to defeat Robinhood to win. Iâm not sure basing valuations off their user numbers is a good comparison either. Startups are really hard to value, though, and I know the Freetrade valuation is indeed based off comparisons to similar-ish companies like Monzo.
Anyway, thatâs my brain dump on the topic