How many users now?

Here’s one more zoomed back in and adjusted a little. It’s interesting looking from this far out, the little bumps in growth are really smoothed out.

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IPO by 2025? :thinking: lol

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Based on user numbers, does anyone know when FT smashed the 250K ceiling? Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday? I am asking to keep correct data records. Thanks! :wink:

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Back of envelope valuation question. Assuming 11b valuation for 3 million total users of Robinhood, can we assume rough valuation of FT to be 1b when it reaches 300k users?

I believe that will mean almost 5-6X times value of each share from the valuation in last crowdfunding round.

Not to say that there is a right or wrong way to value startups, but i’d caution against valuing them just by users like that, it’s simply not that simple. ā€˜Users’ is a vanity metric: it’s just the number of people that have downloaded the app and may not even use it again after that. Active users is a better number to go by, but even then I think the revenue, growth, etc are far more important when valuing a startup at this stage.

Back to the point though, Robinhood made $60m in 2019 whereas Freetrade made <$1m. They are on completely different scales. I too believe Freetrade will prove to be a success, but there is a looong way to go before a 1bn valuation imo, a 1bn valuation just for hitting 300k users - when revenue, etc is still very small- would seem a ridiculous overvaluation to me.

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Unsure where you got 11b val and 3 million users from @Blackhawk . As of june they have circa 10m users and their last round was at $11.2b. I’d ballpark Freetrade to be worth circa Ā£300m at 300k users.

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Roughly 1k a user would land you in ball park territory i think. When SIPPS are launched then you’d feel at 300k users and a valuation of 300million would be definately about right.

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We had ~200K users at the last crowdfunding, not sure how a 50% increase in users adds up to 5-6X valuation

I’d love Freetrade to become a multi Billion Ā£ company, but that sounds like wishful thinking to me.

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My opinion’s not worth much I guess :sweat_smile: :rofl:

Its all roughly roughly. But if you take freetrade valuation and divide by users you’ll see its 900 to 1k thereabouts the last few crowdfunds.

I thougt i read that ft use 25% of their valuation is based on no. Of users but I could be wrong there

Robinhood also has multiple avenues of monetisation that likely means on average they make more per customer than FT by a decent amount at present.

When we start seeing how many people are taking up plus accounts you’ll be able to get more idea about how much of an increase it has on revenue per customer.

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What makes you think that?

This will never happen without European expansion which is not a priority any longer based on the most recent roadmap update.

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Friend signed up Friday evening… number 24183x

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Friend signed up on Thursday #240,xxx

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Are we able to see user number for Plus subscriptions? I would be interested in that.

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So Friday was 241000 but weenie’s friend had 248000 on Monday? Put the confetti back in the cannon guys, false start. :joy::tada::tada:

Should be 250k by mid October.

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Ignoring the anomaly it would appear about 600 users a day then.

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Just to clarify, do you mean Freetrade will never have the same amount of users as Robinhood at the same time as Robinhood? Or do you think Freetrade will never get to 10m users?

As an investor in Freetrade, I find this topic very interesting.

Around 55% (110m) of the US adult population owns shares, which is certainly impressive.

Europe and the rest of the world is more effort to find statistics on, but I found a few (do you have a good source?).

  • 33% (~17m adults) of Brits own shares (source)
  • 14.7% (~10m adults) of Germans own shares (source)
  • 18% (~9m adults) of French people hold a PEA or a securities account (source)
  • 15% (~2m) of the Dutch won shares (source)
  • 45% (~22m adults) Italians invest in stocks and bonds (source)
  • 37% (6.9m) Australians invest on a securities exchanges (source)

I picked these countries because they either are already named Freetrade expansion targets, or should be (ignoring the fact Freetrade have said ā€œrest of Europeā€ before). In Australia, for example, share trading is expensive and Stake (as a similar company) is not great (forced to hold USD, extra fees, can only invest in US shares, not ASX, LSE, etc.).

While the EU is a single market in many ways, I totally agree that these are different countries that will need different approaches. I don’t think that language is a big barrier for an app (the Freetrade app already has lots of European translations hidden inside it), but all the acompanying marketing, education, etc. will be more challenging than just English. Different account types and regulations too.

The education piece is important. In researching the above numbers, a common theme of those articles was to continue the sentence by saying ā€œX% invest in shares… but don’t know wtf they’re doingā€ (maybe they used different words). I think a lot of people, millenials especially, feel like stock markets aren’t for them, they’re scared of it, have heard horror stories, don’t know what they’re doing, and therefore stay away. Companies like Freetrade are aiming to change that. This will open up a lot of opportunity. Robinhood has already done that quite a bit in the US.

There are almost twice as many adults in the EU compared to the US. I think that with the educational strategy, or just sheer numbers since the percentages aren’t that low in some countries, Freetrade will easily reach 10m users in the future. Not tomorrow, but in some years from now.

Back to my original clarification question. Will Freetrade ever have more users than Robinhood? I don’t know, but I think it’s certainly possible. The world is huge and Robinhood have failed multiple times at trying to expand outside of the US. They have a heap of capital and pre-existing tech, so I imagine they’ll succeed eventually, but in the meantime other players are getting established and this isn’t a winner takes all market by any means.

There is a question of whether Robinhood’s business model is sustainable in other countries with the UK, EU, Australia (and others?) banning payment for order flow (Robinhood’s primary revenue stream). To your point, the US market is huge, so it’s not like they’re going to suffer by focusing on their home market (unless the SEC continues to bother them). There’s still heaps of marketshare to take from incumbents there.

Meanwhile, Freetrade are moving forward and growing. They’re still in their infancy but the future still looks positive. The raw number of users is not a good metric, of course, but it’s the best one we have between raises or other company announcements. All the good metrics (active users, funds under management, Plus subscriptions, user behaviour, churn, customer acquisition costs) are internal. I still think the future looks good, and that they’ll get to 10m users eventually. Honestly, I don’t think they have to defeat Robinhood to win. I’m not sure basing valuations off their user numbers is a good comparison either. Startups are really hard to value, though, and I know the Freetrade valuation is indeed based off comparisons to similar-ish companies like Monzo.

Anyway, that’s my brain dump on the topic :stuck_out_tongue:

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Yeah that was weird. I’ve deleted that one from the graph as it doesn’t make sense and the two recent numbers align with the daily growth better.

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