Which privately held company do you hope will do an IPO in the near future?
Other than Aston Martin, which is rumoured. I’d love to see LEGO. Not just because I think it would be a valuable one to hold, I just like the idea of having a share in LEGO. Much like Aston Martin for me.
Uber for me. Plenty of issues now, but what a potential when AI cars will be around, all the overheads on drivers’ wages will be turned to $0. Whether it is in 10 or 20 years - hard to say. But if they IPO in the next 5 years, I will be looking at making it at least 3-10% of my portfolio for sure.
Uber is definitely one I’m watching. I’m expecting it to develop into more than just a taxi and food delivery service though. I think they could be a massive disruption to companies like Parcel Force and co if they get the AI section working. You could essentially have a mobile Amazon locker.
Prevailing perception seems to be the only long-term competitive advantage and business for ridesharing companies is who can solve autonomous cars first.
Otherwise the model supposedly just measures who has the biggest investor cash pile to burn.
The tech and distribution barriers to entry for ride-sharing are very low, so if e.g. Google get their first on autonomous vehicles, it might be much easier and more valuable to just build ‘Google Ride’ than to sell the cars to Uber.
Not sure where Uber are in the race for autonomous vehicles basically.
I wouldn’t buy Uber. The corporate culture is (or certainly was) toxic. The network effects are only regional - they’ve given up on or sold up in several non-US markets. Currently the value is in having the largest two-sided marketplace (drivers and ride-purchasers) in a territory. Longer term, one side of that two-sided marketplace disappears when/if cars go self-driving and with it goes some of the defensibility unless they’re ready to buy a massive fleet and either market-leading in autonomy or ready to buy that in too. And in self-driving capability imho they are considerably behind Google, which owns a piece of Lyft.