Monday Morning Milestones X - What to expect when you are investing

Hi folks :ocean: :sauropod:

This is the tenth one of these I’ve penned. I enjoy writing and sharing with you folks, that make me a better more informed investor and hopefully you too. Shall I keep them up? Are they useful?

Did you know that 6 out of 10 Gen Z investors have admitted to trading while drunk, or ahem in-cider trading :wink:. Be honest what was the last trade you made sober but wish you were drunk because you’d at least have an explanation. Comment below and receive the absolution for your sins.

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Since nobody complained about the pop philosophy last week here is another stoic nugget that you didn’t ask for -

There is always temptation when you stumble across an interesting stock or IPO so gleefully you welcome them into your stable only for months to pass and you can’t remember why it’s there. I wonder how many a portfolio could do with a compass & map?

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So let’s roll our collective sleeves up and see what the next few days have in store. I’ve tried to incorporate some more indicators of macro trends this week, let me know what you think below.

Guide
:page_facing_up::pen: = Earnings Report / Trading Statement
:moneybag::calendar: = Ex-Dividend date
:money_with_wings::mag: = Dividend payment
:mag_right::world_map: = Macro / Market Wide

Monday January 17th

:mag_right::world_map: US Markets closed for MLK holiday
:mag_right::world_map: China Q4 growth numbers, unemployment numbers & Retail sales
:money_with_wings::mag: XPP - XP Power 21p

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Tuesday January 18th

:moneybag::calendar: LOW - Lowes 80c
:moneybag::calendar: PECO - Philips Edison 9c

:mag_right::world_map: UK unemployment rate for November 2021.
The last update we received was for October 2021 and it brought with it 4.2% unemployment and more payroll starts than any period since 2014. Will this trend continue? Its a key metric the Bank of England will be monitored when they consider any rate changes in their battle with inflation. Watch for markets to respond if there is anything unexpected here.

:page_facing_up::pen: Charles Schwab (SCHW)

Average analysts estimates for Charles Schwab sit at $102 which represents a nice 10% upside on the Friday close price. The third largest asset manager in the world could be well placed as interest rates rise with people rebalancing portfolios.
Keep a :eye: on
$4,80 billion total predicted revenue. Ip 15% from lat year.
Total AUM tipping over $6.8bn

Goldman Sachs (GS) - What do bankers where on a zoom meeting? The same smug grin they wear everywhere else!!

From the outside the bad boys (and girls) of Wall Street appear to be doing really rather well signalled clearly with a stock bonus package due for the partner tier worth ‘millions for each person’. Sitting with a 20% upside form an average of 17 analysts and a P/E of just 6.28 Goldman might be somewhere to shelter from the growth stock storm, I’d have preferred a higher dividend than 2.1% though.
Keep a :eye: on
Can they break $60bn in revenues for the first time?

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Wednesday January 19th

:mag_right::world_map: Latest UK inflation figures CPI & RPI
:moneybag::calendar: CAT - Caterpillar $1.11
:money_with_wings::mag: NG - National Grid 17.21p

:page_facing_up::pen: Procter & Gamble (PG)

The makers of Pringles & Pampers reports H1 2022 earnings this week and while sales have been on the rise since the beginning of the pandemic they are tangling with rising costs. Covid is causing a global shortage of workers as fewer people are willing to work or governments aren’t allowing them. The main issue for the Febreze & Flash maker to tackle is, you guessed it, Inflation. Consumers are very price sensitive and this will likely lead to margins coming under pressure as P&G try to swallow as much as they can.
Keep a :eye: on
Revenue growth between 2% & 5%
Margin pressure to be addressed

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:page_facing_up::pen: Bank of America (BAC)

Nobody actually listens to analysts right? If you did 12 months ago you’d be up 45%. Taking a 5% drive on Friday after ‘mixed’ results from fellow banks Citigroup, JPMorgan and Wells Fargo any disappointing results should have been priced in. Rising interest rates is good if you’re a bank.
Keep a :eye: on
Earnings to surpass the $22bn mark.

:page_facing_up::pen: United Airlines (UAL)

I’ve always struggled with airlines as a business. How to you honestly value a business like this - $40bn in debt (2x revenues), a P/E of 12, no dividend history and up 8% in 15 Years

I’m throwing this one out the FT community, is anyone here buying airlines - if so who and why?

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Thursday January 20th

:moneybag::calendar: CPG - Compass Group 14p
:moneybag::calendar: GAW - Games Workshop 65p
:moneybag::calendar: CVS - CVS 55c
:moneybag::calendar: GLAD - Gladstone - 6.5c :wink: @Big-g

:page_facing_up::pen: Netflix (NFLX)

Netflix and chill … or Netflix and will (you please stop dropping!)

The last time you could have brought Netflix for this price it was budgie smuggling August and across the whole of 2021 Netflix returned an anaemic 5% growth, compared to the rest of the NASDAQ who bolstered 15%. Like a Chesney Hawkes gig, there is only on thing everyone has come for … The One & Only Quarterly Subscriber Growth :v: Netflix have continued to grow the subscriber base even as lockdowns restrictions have been wound down, mostly thanks to expansion in the Asia Pacific region.
Keep a :eye: on

  • User growth
  • Retention of margin. Anything above 7% should be well received
  • Next years program budget.

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Friday January 21st

:money_with_wings::mag: HFG - Halfords 3p
:money_with_wings::mag: SDY - Speedy Hire .75p
:money_with_wings::mag: CURY - Currys 1p

I’ve picked some choice cuts from the week, what are you looking forward too? Any tasty dividends landing in your portfolio? What about the map & compass, do you know to which port you’re sailing?

Thanks for reading, don’t forget to :heart: and let me know what you think below. :sauropod: :wave:

29 Likes

My father used to trade with a bottle of whisky. Needless to say, he was not successful. :man_facepalming:

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I don’t need the whisky as mentioned by @Coolsmp but am pretty lax in gambling, yes it is gambling, on a SPAC every so often with little to no knowledge of it. Actually seems to be in green mainly thanks to LUCID. I see that as adding a bit of spice to the portfolio recipe and better than putting it on the 1 arm bandit. :rofl:

Regarding the weekly mails, they are GREAT and FT should give you a job even if only a part time mod with benefits! A lot of people tend not to give out likes as if they are currency and will cost them money :rofl: but I would hazard a guess there are many many people who feel the same and really appreciate the easily digested and comical format of the milestones.

Thank you :clap: :+1:

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I really enjoy reading these each week. Some reason I can’t see all the individual breakdowns this week? What am I doing wrong?

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Is the last bit I can see?

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Click the day and they filter out. :+1:

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I’m such a idiot ha

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The big one for me this week is Netflix. I’m sure I’m not the only one sailing this vessel.
Not sure my :compass: is working though :joy:
Thanks for the thread :+1:

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I’ve never traded while drunk, although I have gambled while under the influence.

Needless to say, it inevitably ended up with tears in my beers :sob:

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@Big-g Anyone who hasn’t been tempted the allure of a SPAC has a very strong will. I’ve not lost much but was sorely disappointed when all the excitement about Pershing Square Tontine deflated like a cheap balloon. Universal Music would have been a long term hold for me.

That’s very kind, I enjoy writing these and I’m glad they’re well received.

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It’s the monster report this week, everything is in its shadow. The long concern is that they’re trying to make money against competitors (Amazon / Apple) who are using steaming as a value add.

Is that you JVT?

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@NeilB I think you are doing a stellar job. For anyone that reads this and is not aware that @NeilB not an employee … this is a labour of love :smiling_face_with_three_hearts: for him.

It is rare that I have a position in any of the companies that he lists here :grin:. However, it is always essential reading - the thoughts and comments invariably trigger connections.

Happy investing everyone and once again @NeilB thank you very much for what you do - I really appreciate it.

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No :joy: but I have similar hair and wear glasses.
Not as clever though.

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I refuse to give up on this one. It ironically is one SPAC I actually planned on and researched :man_facepalming: I just have a feeling that Bill is going to have the last laugh on this one though. At least that’s what I keep telling myself :rofl:

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Price increases on the way too. May affect revenue, but hopefully not to the point it puts investors off.

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Hear hear :clap::clap::clap::clap:

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Really appreciate your Monday morning posts (and I say that without a drop of alcohol in sight).

I don’t have any companies you mention as single holdings but cheered up when I remembered that they’re in the global ETF which is in my core portfolio.

My prevailing wind in my (much smaller) fun portfolio, where I fritter away the milk money, is about banks/finance, dividends, emerging markets and renewable energy.

Thanks again.

(Also, I really love FreeTrade!)
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If anyone has a company they’d like featured in the coming weeks drop me a DM or comment below. If you want to write a little bit for the relevant week it would be great to include other voices. :ok_hand:t2:

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GDP grew by 4% for the last three months of 2021 bringing the whole year total to 8.1%. While both these numbers are both impressive and above Bejing estimates they’re slowing. Slowing a much that China unexpectedly reduced interest rates today of business loans for the first time since April 20.

China’s economy grew by an impressive 8.1% last year but the country was in the middle of pandemic lockdowns in 2020 so that is coming off a low base.

Chinese consumers also seem to be feeling less optimistic as retail sales data was weaker than expected.

More…

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Mixed numbers here all metrics of unemployment are looking good with the rate back at pre COVID levels everyones least favourite ‘I’ word, inflation, looms large.