Mine is pretty neutral, although I’m overallocated to EM (largely at the expense of Japan, and very slightly under on Asia ex and Europe).
I agree EM won’t fare so well in a crisis, but I have to balance that risk vs the risk of paying 25X earnings on developed equities, which is historically not a great bet either.
Everything I see just screams “look at this massive bubble” at me, from asset prices, rampant speculation in all sorts of areas and often hysterical retail sentiment. This might seem like a contradiction as I am 100% equities and overweight on the riskiest areas (EM, Value and Small cap).
My bigger concern than a bubble popping and asset prices collapsing is that this is a persistent trend and asset prices stay high and expected returns stay low for the coming decade(s). I’m in my late 20s and I still need to fund the other ~80% of my retirement so while a -30+% correction might hurt my current holdings it would probably actually let my realise my financial goals sooner (because I’d be buying more at a lower price).
My current (risky) position is a hedge against a crash not happening and expected returns staying ~3% (the worst case scenario for me). I think this is a good example of why financial planning is a very personal decision.
Agreed, accumulating is much simpler to manage (I think VFEG wasn’t on the app when I picked or I missed it)