PensionBee - PBEE - Share Chat

So youve flagged my post as spam, very mature.

No, I haven’t. But I’m not at all surprised that someone else did.

I don’t see why Mike should have his posts flagged. Everyone who posts positive opinions is long so someone with a negative opinion should be allowed to be short without having it stamped on their forehead.

Personally I really appreciate the diversity of opinion and feel negative opinions shouldn’t be hidden away.

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It’s because he links to his patreon. So he wants to sell his opinion.

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Again, for the record, I didn’t flag any of his posts, although initially I was very skeptical of his motivations. At first, it seemed like he was only posting here to promote his private blog (which being patreon would require payment to see more), and later when he mentioned about shorting (which again, isn’t possible on Freetrade) which made me think he was an institutional investor trying to sway the market by posting negative pieces.

It depends. If he is an institutional investor, he should be declaring the conflict of interest. If he’s not, I agree with you.

Anyway, he seems happy to stay and chat, so I’m happy we’ve got a new active forum member who’s prepared to do some digging into company fundamentals.

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It was a link to a free page i don’t need to promote my patreon because ive not even gone fully public with it yet. I also literally copied and pasted the whole article and posted it here. And by the replies on it, it seems many people agree with my opinion and liettrally most peoples analysis on stocks are, in a nutshell, opnions.

I’m an independent trader running my own fund with my own money. And as you know pal, that page was FREE not behind a paywall and i even copied and pasted the article on here. Then i got told i was passionate because i wrote too much wording in the article. But one thing i do see is that people agreed with me and i even came across articles previously written on here that says the same as to what i say. And this is freetrade mate theres noway a forum like this can swing opinions that would affect a price on a stock trading £250k per day, even Bloomberg chats and forums don’t have that influence. If i was an institutional investor i wouldn’t be allowed to post on here because all the work i do would be proprietary to the institution i work for, id get the sack if i posted previous analysis ive done when working in the city, they literally have 100+ page contracts solely for this.

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The positive about Pension Bee valuation is that it set a benchmark for other fintech companies in the range £6m-£10m annual Revenues…

Meaning: public market investors are happy to pay a 60x revenues multiple if they see a growth story…

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Personally i don’t think so because there are so many new industries and companies that are growing and these fintech stocks will see a loss of attention towards them. I think PB will go down the same route as Aston Martin, Cellular Goods, Deliveroo, Coinbase and others. Snapchat set this bloody trend off in 2017 when they went public at $27, the price fell and it took 3.5 years to break the $27 listing price. Over priced peddlers of stocks lol

Actually…it does seem to be behind a wall of some sorts. I can’t just read the article.

My first reaction when you first posted was that you were pushing your Patreon. But then, like you say, you did post it in full.

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Not too sure why that is pal if that’s the home page then scroll down and the post will probably be there, ive made most of the free. I can see how ppl thought i was trying to plug it though, tbh i should’ve just copied and pasted it rather than posted the link.

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PensionBee, is the buzz real or could it be a stinger?

I believe that there is a lot of hype and too much buzz surrounding PensionBees share price and the market seems to be favoring the company even though the numbers seem very odd and bubbly. Here’s why; PensionBees annual turnover in 2019 was £3.5m, up 149% from 2018, its AUA* reached £745m and its customer base passed 38,000. For 2020, PensionBee announced that its annual turnover was £6.3, up 77% from 2019, its AUA reached £1.4bn and its customer base passed 403,000 customers. For Q1 2021, PensionBee had 476,000 registered customers and its AUA reached £1.65bn. This seems like one roaring company growing exponentially, especially with its customer base and its AUA, so why do the numbers seem odd and bubbly?

*Assets under administration

For one, PensionBees market cap is trading 63x its 2020 turnover, which is one of the highest numbers I have ever seen. Even Teslas market cap, which is the poster child for all bubble stocks, is trading 22x its annual turnover.

In April 2021 PensionBee went public onto the LSE and they priced their stock at 165p per share, which gave them a market cap of £384m. Within a few days of the listing the share price broke 184p and their market cap reached £409m. In my opinion this is a very high valuation for a company with an annual turnover of £6.5m, it’s a bubble stock that’s been very overhyped. Another way to put it, at 184p per share, PensionBees annual turnover equates to just 1.6% of its total valuation. These numbers, in terms of valuation to turnover, seem very bubbly and in my opinion they show us that the stock is very overpriced.

For two, there is a disparity amongst PensionBees type of customers and they have three different categories of customers. These categories include registered customers, active customers and invested customers. Out of these three customer categories only the invested customers have acquired a service from PensionBee, the two other types of customers aren’t really customers, they’re basically subscribers being called customers. PensionBee deems them as customers in their numbers because anyone who registers with them is deemed as a customer. When you look into their customer data, out of 476,000 total registered customers, only 81,000 of these customers have actually invested capital with PensionBee, which is just 17% of their total registered customers. Let’s say for example, 100 people decided to enter a fashion store and just 17 of these people decided to buy a product from the store, then what does that say about that fashion store? I shall let you answer that one for yourselves.

But in my opinion that is not a good look if just 17% of people who register with a company end up purchasing services from that company. If I owned a shop and only 17% of people who entered my shop ended up buying a product, then I wouldn’t deem the odd 83% as customers, I would deem them more as browsers rather than customers. If you owned a shop, would you call people who enter your shop but don’t buy anything, customers? Then why is PensionBee calling those types of non-customers, as customers? Seems odd.

Valuation to annual turnover wise, that is a market factor not a business factor but in order to provide transparency towards investors, I believe that PensionBee needs to issue a conversion rate for their active customers or they should rename their non-invested customers to ‘potential customers’. Conversion rates will provide transparency and these rates should be based over a period of 3, 6 and 12 months. So for example, if 100,000 customers register with PensionBee and after 6 months 50,000 of these registered customers become invested customers, then that’s a conversion rate of 2:1, in percentage terms that’s a conversion rate of 50%. PensionBees conversion rate since its inception is 10:1.7, in percentage terms that is a conversion rate of 17%. PensionBee issuing conversion rates every quarter would give investors more of an insight into the demand and the interest towards PensionBees services it provides. PensionBee renaming non-invested customers, as ‘potential customers’ would provide investors with clarity in terms of who has acquired a service and those who were interested but didn’t acquire a service. Either one, or both, would be good for the company, investors and the share price. Transparency prevails in the markets.

Yes I know that the buzz surrounding PensionBee is quite high at the moment, tabloids and media outlets are focusing on the registered users and its AUA and there are also a lot of awards being thrown around left, right and centre. The company and its young founders are being portrayed as a success story and one tabloid called PensionBee a “great British success story”, and company wise I totally agree with that quote. However, stories and awards don’t pay the bills, the numbers always come to lighr and the next 12 months will show us if the stock trades around its hype, its customer data, its AUA and its coverage, or will it trade around the financial results and within the realm of rationality not bubble territory, we shall know by summer 2022.

-LINKS

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Your really passionate about this aren’t you :joy:

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Nope, it’s just part of my analysis on a stock, nothing passionate about it. I cant see why you see this as not normal it kinda bewilders me. It’s a small analysis on certain fundamentals on a stock.

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But you posted it on the pension bee thread then felt it deserved another thread as well :joy: The fact you said you had shorted the stock does imply you have a motive to push a negative narrative.

Just odd to post the same long message in 2 places :+1: Anyhow I didn’t argue with it just said you are obviously passionate about it to join and go in 110% on the topic.

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I think most people on here have a motive with their opinions on a stock but i am just a schmuck on a community page mate i very much doubt my opinion can move a stock trading at an avg of £250k a day, i could probably guarantee it wont. I’m not too sure about a 2nd post tbf i’m still navigating the landscape on this group. I must say that post was copied and pasted from my article and has been posted alot on other groups and my private group. It’s not solely for Freetrade.

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I was just ribbing you :stuck_out_tongue_winking_eye:

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Youre taking my pride matey i’m thinking i’m giving my deep opinion and youre ribbing me :rofl: :rofl: :rofl:

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Already a thread please post there

LOL, he already did a couple of hours ago! :stuck_out_tongue_winking_eye: