I never said you said the middle class. I am merely telling you. And I am talking about Georgia where I am keeping up with events due to my portfolio being about 25% invested there.
The influx jumped from queues of no significance to 24 hour.
I think they do know about the war by now as the fruit cake announced the call up on the television.
I mean they intend on overrunning the Ukrainian army thatās what the call up is about.
They have stated they want more than just the area they presently just about control.
With some of these quite extreme predictions I think itās useful to look at the prediction markets / forecasting consensus to establish a baseline. Not because they are always right but I just think itās good to establish what conventional thinking is so perhaps if you are a long way off you can review your priors.
Nuclear Weapons
Taiwan (Note the metaculus 2024 is much weaker claim and the 2050 includes non-combat unification)
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Well Iām glad thatās all sorted and all the arguing is done! You two should add each other on WhatsApp/messaging platform of your choice.
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I am fairly certain this is a discussion on the war in Ukraine. Not sure why you think we shouldnāt be discussing it. Which two by the way.
Good point. I was in another country in another continent when the war broke out in the Ukraine and found it quite fascinating how differently the war and the events leading up to it was reported in that country compared to the British media. After that I was in the US for a few weeks and found it interesting how the US national press reported on it and how there was a partisan take on the war. The other thing that I find interesting is how different generations seem to have different views on the war.
In another post somewhere on this forum @NeilB made a great recommendation to read Prisoners of Geography by Tim Marshall. This book was published in 2015 long before the present war entered the public conscious but the upshot is that this particular war was inevitable. Oneās general knowledge and investment knowledge may hugely increase by reading this book and the follow up.
What differences did you find? Or was it just the USA you had experience of?
@Cameron
I think the Chinease are looking at the Russian invasion of Ukraine and thinking can we really invade a very well defended island when the Russian couldnāt even cross a land border and beat heavily outnumbered army.
I think they wouldnāt dareā¦anytime soon. Also why would only annex half?
Iāll try and find his video I canāt rememberā¦ By the way this is interest https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1577298111730524160?s=20&t=mJalnqYfG-b6zqaovFbh-A
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I agree I think an invasion of Taiwan is incredibly unlikely, even more so after Ukraine - I think the predictions generally support that view (odds are low and dropped after the Russian offensive stalled)
I donāt think you would, but itās much better to word the question that way to avoid ambiguity in how it resolves (e.g. in the case of some islands being independent and others annexed)
What is this in reference to?
From the New York Times
" On the ground in eastern Ukraine, my colleague, Carlotta Gall, interviewed an American who commands a unit of international and Ukrainian volunteers. āThe Russians have been retreating,ā said the commander, Rob Roy, 26, who uses the code name Borys. āWe broke their lines and have been pursuing them since.ā
Roy said that many of the Russian conscripts were in poor shape.
āLots of times they were wearing flip-flops, malnourished,ā he said. āIt does not scream of a well-mobilized army. My feeling is they donāt want to be here.ā
Seriously! honestly they donāt want to be there!
The new conscripts may not be as lucky, they may not be issued any flip flops!!
Mentions the Russians fleeing to Georgia.
No idea
Russians are fleeing Russia because most of them do not want to go to war as only 10,000 volunteered, among the 25 million eligible for the draft. Different countries are taking various positions on this: Germany, and now the US have offered to give asylum to those running from mobilization.
Appears only 25 million eligible for the draft.
50 hour wait to cross into Georgia
Russian state not toeing the party line
line.Video of Russian recruits reveals reality on the frontlines - YouTube
USA sure is benefitting from NS2 explosion
How? It wasnāt in use. Nor is it ever likely to be so in the future. At least not in the near future.
It is a supply and demand situation the US government is not setting prices the market is.
Just like buying from the cheapest supplier which for Germany was Russia.
It benefits the USA due to the fact that it is can no longer be used by Russia as negotiation leverage. Germany has been resisting price caps and is a key part of keeping the EU together. There are also takes like this
Also: less supply globally = higher prices for USA product.
It wasnāt being used it has no effect on prices and the US didnāt blow it up!!
It no having an effect on prices is not something I agree with. Letās agree to disagree here.