Appreciate your response. I will have a look at the CEO videos today! Cheers
This looks very interesting.
As with all AIM stocks I find it difficult to research competitors etc. Turns out I have a friend (found via LinkedIn) who is a senior explorer/geologist who has worked with a member of the team now at tirupati. Even he had never heard of tirupati I guess that’s the risk you take with AIM!
That’s understandable, they are an Indian firm who have only just listed
An interesting little article on TGR.
2 million tons shortage coming for flake graphite? Well i know where they can find 84 000 tons of that.
Agreed. Although if all goes to plan, 84,000 tpa will be available from the end of 2024. Would be interested to know what TGR’s plan is for production by 2030.
Hopefully a great future for this company.
I’m so constructive on graphite I recently increased my position that I’ve been holding since IPO.
Tesla and SK Innovation both requested a waiver on tariffs for graphite
Natural graphite demand grows by a factor of seven by 2030
Graphite is the biggest element by mass in an EV.
@Markyboy41 My conservative model based on management commentary is 30,000tpa production from Madagascar in 2024, 25,000tpa from Mozambique and 15,000tpa from their Indian sites. Now the Mozambique assets depend on how soon they can break ground there and India is not consolidated yet. But run rate is 84,000tpa Madagascar, around 50,000tpa from Mozambique and 20,000tpa eventually from India, so over 150k in total, most of which is large flake size or speciality products which will be at a premium. Over $130m in annualised sales at current prices.
Thanks for that dk1.
As usual, patience required but will be nice when the SP starts to move north as the plan continues to come good, alongside the expected increase in demand.
Here is a link to an article that answers my question re 2030 production target.
This may well come back down with a bump, but it’s nice to have faith in something and see it back in the green.
Anyone else in on this still? What a strange ride this is. Look at that graph . Be great is it ever finds the bottom and can go back up, but the bottom on this is like Kim Kardashians you just don’t know what’s real the real bottom and what’s not.
Graphite price growth could be slowing, was flat in May, and there’s been a general rotation out of commodities in recent months on weaker growth (industrial metals are down 20%). Tirupati hasn’t yet achieved profitability so that doesn’t help in this environment either.
Operation update today. Notable is the guidance for profitability in the current year. Plugging the latest selling price of $866/MT achieved I get around $3.4m sales for FY22. FY23 at current prices should be around $28m if Sahamamy and India can get on track.
Big overreaction in the market today IMO.
TGR now valued at less than £30m for a company currently producing and set to continue expanding in a graphite market which could well follow the likes of lithium and nickel in a squeeze as demand outstrips supply in the coming years.
Might top up more. Assuming a 20% EBITDA margin for this year and it’s trading at around 5x, so cheap even if you assume they have to raise a little debt/equity. I’ve just noticed they missed their FY22 target:
During FY 22 (covering the period April 2021 to March 2022), total production was 2,996 MT (FY 21 1,718 MT) and sales were 2662 MT (FY 21 1,857 MT)
That’s about 1000 MT below expectations. So my guess at FY22 sales comes down to $2.3m. Probably why there’s such a bad reaction.
I thought lower production was already priced in due to the multiple cyclones they’ve had this year.
Unfortunately looks like a sell on news event which gets ugly in these dire markets currently.
I’ve taken some at 37p and might take more if it goes sub 30p, but not expecting this to bounce back anytime soon.