US Travel Ban - How's yer stocks looking now?

and therein lieth the truth: It’s not logic influencing people’s decisions, it’s emotion.

It’s now LOWER than 2008. Surely cannot get any lower.

The composition / weighting of the index has changed so much over that timeframe that I’m not sure you can equally assess them

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Not many investors were paying attention throughout 2019 to the fundamentals and what you are seeing is the reality of an overbought market come back down to earth, with extended issues also due to the virus.

If Buffet holding over 100billion in cash is not a deciding factor on whether the market is expensive & overbought… Many could not enter the market because of valuations.

But people continued to pump pump pump into 2019/2020 expecting it to keep going up. Was buffet pumping? Not at all.

I have bought into great quality businesses, I am not stressed at all. In fact I am loading up, its like a closing down sale.
I also spread bet so I have been shorting the S&P 500 since the 25th of Feb and going long on gold.

There is a long term trend line at 2500 once the price hits that I expect it to bounce back up. At least temporarily

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Hopefully not this though…

The same people were saying the same thing in 2015 PJ, hindsight is always 2020.

Who could have honestly predicted a global pandemic caused by a Chinese virus and Saudi Arabia and Russia having an all game of chicken over oil?

Yes there may have been fundamental issues wrong with certain companies PE Ratios and Debt ratios, but it’s simply been a black swan that’s caused this.

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Everytime the market collapses people have people have thought it was the end. And yet it wasn’t, this isn’t any different. If the great party was to be over then I don’t think money would matter anymore anyway.

I’m sorry to say this but, I have very little sympathy for anybody who falls into this category. If you cannot fairly assess the value of a business then you’re setting yourself up for a hard time. I don’t like to see people lose money but I hope these people learn some important lessons.

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It’s true. Just look at one basic indicator, is Buffett buying in 2019…? No. He’s being patient.

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He put 45 million into Delta Airlines in February, and it’s since down 35%.

Anyway, I’m not getting into this. The words head and brick wall come to mind. Just hope all goes well for your and everyone’s investments going forward, as what has been has now happened and we can’t change it.

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I wouldn’t write off the possibility of him acquiring the rest of Delta. If federal aid doesn’t come for the airlines, then at least one of them will fall. Delta is actually pretty strong (IMO) so he might have to sell this stake to acquire another in whole

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What happens to the US airlines is quite similar to 911 era. As long as companies can survive through, they will come back up eventually. Time the exact bottom? Only Jim Cramer and the likes can.

Without getting philosiphically nihilist …It’s irrational to panic over this ‘pandemic’. There is just no point.

There are only two outcomes:

  • The Virus will eventually disappate and filter away. Things return to norm.
  • The Human Race is wiped out.

One of those scenarios WILL happen. That is all.

If you back the former, you’d be insane not to buy cheap shares now.
If you back the latter, you’re dead anyway.

Life Finds A Way - Jeff Goldblum

Is the market actually cheap even after the recent drops? Historically it’s still in top quartile for price to earnings ratio… that worries me, Another 20-30%drop anyone?

This might sounds crazy but everytime Trump says something the market drops! At first I thought this whole thing would last only two weeks but now I think the market could crash further. I’m still not sure if I should slowly add or wait till the bottom. How do you know where the bottom is?

You don’t.

For many, the answer is to build up cash reserves. Then even if you miss the bottom, you can at least start putting money back in once things are climbing up.

Granted, you’ll miss out on indivual stocks which drop perilously low and then rebound way up in short order. But catching those is effectively gambling, and you’ve more chance of backing one that drops perilously low- and keeps dropping instead.

The bottom is months away.
Our health system is expecting to be dealing with Covid-19 for around 6 months at a level where demand outstrips resources. The economy will be on lock down for months.
The US will be hit far worse than Europe.