What companies will still be around in 20 years?

As a follow on from the bearish thread about what sectors are most at risk. What sectors, industries and companies do you believe are ring fenced enough to still be around come our “retirement” ages. As a dividend investor this is something I prioritise when selecting who to invest in.

Coca Cola, McDonalds, Nike are all “safe as can be” for me. Any other stand outs that will last the test of time?

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I personally think insurance companies like Aviva , legal and general etc are pretty safe bets for the future given ageing populations as well as other factors. I’m sure they will move as technology improves however it would take a huge shift to remove the leading players.

I also think telecommunications companies such as BT are relatively safe as well. Think about the amount of infrastructure BT has and the amount of money it would take to displace them from their position. BT also well diversified in that it has TV, EE and home broadband.

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I’d like to agree with this statement. I think these big players who tend to be fairly well managed would be a safer bet. Likewise with BT which was mentioned. However they are trying to be broken up more and more over having a monopoly. I don’t see Virgin or Sky installing all of the infrastructure though so it seems unfair.

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Companies with strong brands - painkillers, alcohol, shampoos, toilet papers, soap, toothpaste, deodorants, hair products etc…

Household Products and Healthcare

  • Reckitt Benckiser
  • Procter & Gamble
  • PZ Cussons
  • Colgate-Palmolive
  • Unilever
  • Kimberley-Clark
  • Johnson & Johnsons

Alcohol

  • Diageo

Sugary products

  • Coca-Cola
  • Pepsi
  • Britvic

Fast Food

  • McDonalds
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I personally hold Aviva, it’s not doing so hot right now with the management shakeup but I’m taking a much longer term view.

I agree with you, I see them as a fairly resilient firm. I also know they have a lot of side R&D which has very low overheads but gives them potential access to interesting hot tech (Founders Factory where Aviva has their fingers in the financial vertical.)

Personally, I believe that many of the big pharmaceuticals will be going nowhere- Glaxo, Pfizer, Roche. Definitely a high risk and competitive market in terms of R&D, but for me, they’re in the too big to fail bracket.

Never say never! Nothing is too big to fall. Nobody saw RBS needing to ring the prime minister for a bail out to stop the country from coming to a halt. There is usually at least one big name each decade that takes an almighty crash. Only needs a systemic fraud and most companies will fold up pretty quick.

That said, established insurance companies, pharma companies and even oil companies are likely to be around for a long time.

Oil is a finite product and it’s demand has never been higher. It is likely the price of it will continue to rise over the decades too. China and India make up 1/4 of the worlds population and they don’t care much for green energy!

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Oil is a really interesting mention. The IRENA recently released figures suggesting that the cost of producing renewable energy is very close to the cost of energy based on fossil fuels.

There have also been suggestions that China is positioning itself to become a leader in renewable energy. However, this would cause even greater political pressure from the USA as, in my opinion, one of the main reasons the USD retains half it’s value is the fact that it is used to trade oil. The push for renewable energy use threatens this, hence Trump doesn’t attract fans from the climate warriors.

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That is odd. They are the world’s biggest polluter. The air is dangerous to breathe in their big cities. It’s like rolling back the years to the smog of London.

With a population of 1.4B, it’s hardly surprising the air quality is horrific… Maybe they’ve realised it’s a problem?

I think the renewable energy market is where it’s going. From Electric Cars to Solar power, all the big boys are taking that route that says a lot. For example google are investing heavily into their own Electric Vehicle. I’m intrigued by companies like First Solar aswell, who have contracts already out and signed for the whole of 2020.

Where the likes of BP and Shell go to diversify to keep up with technology and the change in infrastructure will be very interesting.

I think BP and Shell are already diversifying into renewables. whether they can make enough from that to cover any loss of Oil revenue remains to be seen.

My opinion is we’ll still be using shedloads of oil in 20 years.

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Shell had an interesting day today to the same effect. They are diversifying quickly already but have said they still fully expect oil & gas to be a large part of the mix well past 2030.

Very interesting and informative replies. I’ll be looking into researching both companies with a view to adding them into my portfolio, with them both also being good dividend payers.

Back on your original post and query. I’d back some of the bigger banks to still be around too, JP Morgan & Bank of America, the ones that are equally investment banks as retail banks.

As sad as this is, I’d look at the defence companies. The elite powers of the world love a good ware every now and then and these guys rarely have to deal with drops in government spending.

Certainly, just perhaps (hopefully!) not so much for energy. Don’t forget that oil has many other vital uses.

What do you think of the theory that they want to go the way of a global currency, making the population easier to control and regulate?

I’m going all David Icke now :smile: but he puts forward very compelling arguments which makes me wonder what the future of the banking system really is.

National Grid will be around in 20 years from now. Corbyn says he wants to nationalise it but it’ll still be around even if that happens.

The governments of the world all agreeing on something? No chance

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I just had a wee look at the financials for the National Grid and they are sitting on 2 Billion Cash with 28 Billion in Debt. Only making 3 Billion a year revenue, too risky a play for me.