With things like challenger Banks cutting into normal bank profits and their customer bases, as well as brick and mortar retail chains going bust and margins being cut due to online retailers like Amazon / Alibaba etc booming, I was interested to see what people view as “risky” or “dying” out sectors in the stock market that you would avoid completely and why?
For me, that’s tobacco companies such as Imperial Brands.
While I personally have a view on the impact of these companies, I can also see a future scenario where smoking (incl. e-cigarettes) would be severely restricted or even outlawed. The trend might make this regulatory shift easier: Turning the tide on tobacco: Smoking in England hits a new low - UK Health Security Agency
That said, I haven’t seen data for Germany, but just having lived there, I was getting the impression the trend was the exact opposite! And I know some people love the company’s dividends.
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I’m increasingly getting suspicious that retail is a thing of the past.
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I used to think that, but now I’m fairly confident it won’t happen, at least in the next decade or two
(which probably means it will 
)
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Funny enough I have some knowledge on the specific sector.
A few points on this specific shift towards their own “healthier” option before reading the article :
These are not normal e-liquid style e-cigarettes btw
a) They sell the product, e-cig refills and accessories (for cleaning etc) likely more margins
b) It’s as close as it can get to a cigarette
c) It lasts as long as a normal cigarette (so consumers will still buy the refills daily)
d) It’s healthier
e) It very likely costs less so bigger margins
f) regulatory “friendly”
g) less of a “bad” name
In the EU the product is going really well.
This is a move from Philip Morris so my guess others are also monitoring what is going on and some already have their own products in some markets.
Tobacco companies waited to see what would actually happen market share wise with e-cigarettes before making the leap, so for sure it was hurting their bottomlines.
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Any industries I’m not interested in/ don’t understand
(I try to keep it simple)
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shows smoking prevalence in developing countries
Loyal(addicted) customer base, high barriers to entry- prohibition/limitations on advertising and plain packaging. Pricing power-addicted customer base.
Overall, number of tobacco users will increase in future, largely due to developing countries. These countries may have little political will to tax tobacco highly or tackle smoking especially with some of the tactics used by big tobacco.
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Retail for me is going down the tubes. The world is going to be run from your mobile phone, signs are becoming even clearer this week with TopMan and TopShop agreeing a deal with ASOS to sell their products through an online firm.
Royal Mail i wouldn’t touch as I can’t see it lasting much longer with the rate of technology.
As for my bullish sectors it’s got to be AI, all the major car companies laying off thousands of staff in recent times with the jobs going to automation. Genetics will be the next huge medical industry having spoken to insiders and their forecasters, and the Electric Car industry I can see taking off massively in the next 5 years.
One I’m on the fence about the now is cannabis, but something I’ll at least research about having a punt on.
I agree with most of that, not sure about UK homebuilders - I am quite negative on anything to do with property - its a massive bubble, especially in London. It also hinges on banks willing to give out mortgages, and big gov subsidising new build sales.
For bulls:
Any meat substitute companies has to be there, although its getting crowded quickly.
Cannabis sector (in Canada) looks promising, but it hinges on US Federal law changes before it can take off - and given their rather conservative gov - may be a while off.
Lastly, Chinese companies that replicate an existing US service - like Twitch, Netflix (Huya, iQiyi) - they have a strong moat as its a mostly closed market and still relatively new.
Also, gold, swiss franc or japanese yen.
** Fyi, I might be slightly pessimistic
Retail is heading in a bad way it feels. I’m staying clear of that for the moment. Also aviation doesn’t seem to be doing too great.