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How did I miss this!



In other Amazon news I saw they gave more details about the Zoox robotaxi yeserday:

They were ranked 9th in Guidehouse’s automated driving leaderboard earlier this year, which seems to broadly align with how people view the state of play (even if it is a bit arbitrary, the groupings feels about right).

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Buying up online companies that do well on Amazon, to create a kind of new online version of brands similar to the ‘Procter & Gamble’ / ‘Unilever’ model. That’s got growth & dividends written all over it.

I’m long AMZN, but how many of their new streaming customers quit after the free trial, after all their Christmas presents got delivered through Prime?

I’m on my 4th or 5th free Prime trial. I always cancel them before I have to pay and the always offer me another a few months later

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AMZN has been stagnate for 6 month… if you think other stocks are too high, AMZN is a bargain.

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How is Amazon a bargain with a PE of 100 and being the fourth largest company in the world by market cap already? :smiley:

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Thats just one way to “value” the co but we’re in a low interest rate environmnt.

They just spent $$ 40bn plus on capital expnditures and their ads (other revenue) went to the moon, and overall based on the earnings call AMZN is a GOAT. Own planes, warhouse robots, moon.

Amazon’s valuation isn’t as insane as it looks at face value, it’s basically pricing in ~5 years of large, but not unreasonable growth.

This piece basically shows you what assumptions are baked in to the current price. (Yes I know there are flaws in this model, but I think it’s still worth considering)

In short though if you think they can grow earnings to ~60bn by 2025 and then get a terminal p/e of ~30 (in line with peers) the current price is about right. I think the former assumption is probably safer than the later.


You may like this report–of course it’s by ARK so it’s free @Cameron

“Most at risk is the $2 trillion of public enterprise value in Luxury Goods, Footwear & Accessories, Apparel Retail, Specialty Retail, Department Stores, and Apparel Manufacturing”

Arcadia Group–the TOPSHOPs–are already getting absorbed by e-commerce like ASOS.

AMAZON owns ecommerce and SHOPIFY own non-AMAZONians who like to sell stuff, like the SpaceX merch store.

Valuation isn’t insance because it’s all relative :crown:

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@Cameron, you post insightful stuff related to valuation. Any specific resources you would recommend for a noob wanting to learn more about this? Thanks in advance. :clap:

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Everywhere really, I saw the Amazon piece posted on /r/SecurityAnalysis which I would say is one of the better investing subs. That’s not a great accolade but the level of discourse is better and you don’t have to sift through quite as much rubbish as the others.


Thanks, wasn’t familiar with that subreddit. The sidebar has a lot of stuff :sweat_smile:.

Anywhere where people are posting thoughtful DCF models is great because they have to lay out all of their assumptions and you can clearly see which of those assumptions are driving value. Which opens up avenues for the reader(s) to further research and adjust those assumptions.

For example if you wanted more confidence in the assumptions around AWS growth you could start looking at competitors expectations and other 3rd party analysis about the total addressable market.

The comments on the piece are good as well:


I think you need to do an APV instead of DCF but it’s all relative man

Jeff Bezos doesnt want to have any more ZOOM meetings , so hes out

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business schools.

of course it’s from Reddit