They are pushing for an extension of the spread which is a recognised response when containment fails?
The plan from the start was to do things in stages otherwise people would become bored of the advice too soon and then not follow procedures when it mattered most. I said this many times, it was never about preventing it from coming.
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What I understood on radio 4 was that modelling suggested that the amount of cases and deaths would be fairly equal under all circumstances, but that slowing the spread of corona keeps it within the capacity of the health care system, so it doesnāt get overwhelmed and exacerbates the issue.
There are also concerns that COVID-19 may be a seasonally recurring phenomenon, and mutate into a more aggressive variant in years to come. Therefore, ensuring that the majority of population will have some anti-bodies, will stop its spread - and potential variants of it - in the future.
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that plan brings us to where we are today, right after Italy and France, perhaps only a couple of days behind
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Hundreds of peopleās lives are dependent on a model which we donāt know who modelled it, their credibility and how accurate the model is
You donāt need to know that since you cannot interpret either credibility or accuracy anyway. The government has experts who can, so how about a little trust. That will be checked by many experts in different countries.
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You have similar credibility to interpret that data as this guy:
ā From 1986ā95 he taught at St Georgeās Hospital Medical School. From 1995ā2002 he was Professor at UCL Medical School, and Professor of Medicine from 2002ā2006, and Head of Medicine.[2] Prior to joining GSK he was registrar of the Academy of Medical Sciences.[1]
From 2006ā10 he was Head of Drug Discoveryat GSK, then from 2010ā12 he was Head of Medicines Discovery and Development. In 2012 he was appointed head of R&D at GSK.[8][9][10][11] Under his leadership of GSK, new medicines for cancer, asthma, autoimmune diseases and HIV infection were discovered and approved for use worldwide.ā
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There is an actual example case that has successfully contained the spread by now, that is China. I donāt understand why our government doesnāt follow what China has done, but instead relying on some experts who make decision based on computers.
Communist country or not, dictatorship or not, what they have done so far in combating this virus has been the most effectively so far, has it not?
Well if you read how they handled it, then the general consensus is that they did an amazing job at knocking the virus down, but that they only suppressed it and that it is likely to come roaring back.
It is also difficult to replicate in Western society. China has an extraordinary ability to do labor-intensive, large-scale projects quickly, says Jeremy Konyndyk, a senior policy fellow at the Center for Global Development: āNo one else in the world really can do what China just did.ā
Then count the cost. The economy has ground to a near standstill, and many small businesses say they may soon run out of cash. Patients with critical illnesses are struggling to find timely care, and some have died. Hundreds of millions of people have been placed in some form of isolation. As of Friday, about 827,000 people remained under quarantine in Beijing, according to the state-run China Daily newspaper.
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China is not out of the woods yet, and its approach may prove to be wrong footed for the reasons the UKās approach underscores.
some experts!
The rational behind HMG advice stands. Herd immunity is what protects those with weaker immune systems from falling ill. cf. the anti vaccine mob driving outbreaks of measles in developing countries like the United Kingdom (!)
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Itās too late for containment. It doesnāt matter if China has temporarily contained it, what are you going to do with international travel? Force everyone to quarantine for 14 days, indefinitely? There are likely countries where it is uncontrolled and undocumented.
Thatās why Iām OK with the UKās approach.
I donāt think markets will really move until Trumpās address later today. Hopefully he doesnāt slaughter the market with a nationwide shutdown or something.
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Am with you. I think the reason that people are fearful is because itās somewhat counter-intuitive.
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Is a two week shutdown of the us stock market on the cards?
Would be unprecedented. Or did they close them after 9/11 - canāt remember!
Then again, we live in interesting times. 
I still wouldnāt trust any of the numbers coming out of China.
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China donāt trust you eitherā¦ Also, welcome to the community! 
Thanks! Long time lurker 
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We will never know if we have got it right, but the government plan is as good as anyoneās.
Itās important to reduce and extend the peak, to bring it to a level that is manageable by the healthcare system.
Itās also important to allow the virus to spread so most of the population has some immunity by the autumn.
This is the balancing act the government is attempting.
Donāt do enough now and the peak will be to high swamping the NHS.
Squash it too much and you delay the spread to the autumn and winter when the NHS capacity is reduced and the deaths will be enormous.
Itās a simple numbers game, trying to minimise the numbers of deaths overall.
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China mapped the virus genome and send it to W.H.O for world circulation within ten days of identifying it, and today they have sent experts, ventilators and masks to Italy. So not all bad
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