Coronavirus and Stock Markets - Thoughts?

Heā€™ll be like a kid in a sweetshop. Berkshireā€™s next filing should make interesting reading.

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Safestore: no discernible impact on trading as per press release today

One light in the darkness

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/18/bill-ackman-pleads-to-trump-to-increase-closures-to-save-the-economy-shut-it-down-now.html

Ouch.

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No one wants this to happen, many household items and food comes from China, people want to get on with their life, the coronavirus is a new virus that has evolved to be resistant to the drugs we use for treatments. This bio weapon theory is ridiculous.

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Fun fact. (I think)

The only way to be immune to this sort of virus is to have a case of it, there are no drug treatments for it, only for the symptoms.

The flu vaccine contains inactive versions of whatever the flu of the day is. The body is then free to make the required antibodies to counter this and huzzah! You donā€™t catch flu that year.

However next year the WHO will assess the flus that are present in the Northern Hemisphere and recommend a new vaccine.

And repeat!

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This year I changed my view about flu jabs, my thinking was it only lasts for 2 weeks I can handle that. But last 2 years I had cold (most likely from bacteria) only subsided after taking antibiotics, after 5 weeks. GP wouldnā€™t give anything before 4 weeks and couldnā€™t get appointment before that.

If one took flu jab and still got cold/flu then it is more likely a bacterial one, that would prompt to take it more seriously.

In case of corona, it would have reduced hospital rush as number of normal cold/flu not calling 111 or going to AE.

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You donā€™t seem aware that the flu is caused by viruses. There is no flu caused by bacteria. There are few treatments for viruses, excluding preventative jabs. Only bacteria induced infections can be treated by antibiotics, which makes bacterial infections way less scary than viral ones (at this point in time).

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Iā€™m aware.
If you took flu jab and got infected with symptoms of cold/flu, then it is more likely a bacterial. Of course it could be some other virus not covered by flu jab cocktail.

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It could also be just flu. Some people die of flu despite getting the jab. It is more effective some years than others. Since the virus is always mutating, the vaccine is only partially effective.

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Sorry to hear you got flu despite getting a flu jab. Both are equally unpleasant!

Unfortunately this happens. CDC Seasonal Flu Vaccine Effectiveness Studies indicates average efficiency below 50% [CDC Seasonal Flu Vaccine Effectiveness Studies | CDC]

There is also research on repeated vaccination and efficiency of vaccines [The impact of repeated vaccination on influenza vaccine effectiveness: a systematic review and meta-analysis | BMC Medicine | Full Text] trying to determine if bigger doses are needed due to body adaptation to small quanities of viruses present in vaccines every year.

I would love to have one vaccine like Centivax! Waiting for their shares too!

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Iā€™d like to think that we get additional regulation out of this, i.e. demonstration of robust financials & business continuity planning. Some sort of annual stress test of listed companies, so that in a couple of years they are still getting asked questions - remember that corona thingā€¦please publish in the ā€œgoing concernā€ section of your annual report what would happen if your business had no revenue for a couple of monthsā€¦ta.

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2 cents:

You can derive valuable info from financial statements. For example:

  • Check the cash balance at the end of the last reporting period.
  • Check the statement of cash flows for historical cash burn/cash generation for the last reporting period (3/6/12 months).
  • Check the footnotes on working capital [update: and credit line] availability and its terms and conditions, if available.
  • Cash conversion:
    Cash Conversion Cycle (CCC): What Is It, and How Is It Calculated?

If you know which industry the company is in - they have certain characteristics that you can google and use common sense against.

All of the above can be a good start.

Companies with US financial market exposure through public equities or bonds usually file very detailed 10-K (annual report) on the Edgar platform listing various risks. This may not be the case with UK-listed firms and/or those that report under IFRS.

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Excellent advice. I also intend to pay more attention to the small print on borrowings in the notes too. I suspect weā€™ll see quite a few companies at risk of breaching their covenants.

Similar trend is happening in the UK, but mostly chairmen and NEDs buying.

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American futures down again albeit only a little bit.

American unemployment claims also coming out, like any measure itā€™s a lagging one, but will be a good leading one to determine if we officially have hot a recession there. May be yet another bumpy ride for the stock markets today.

Where do you find this information?

Also the first time ever using ā€œelectronic onlyā€ trading.

Hopefully the algorithms fuck up and add a zero onto the end of every stock :joy:

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Not until I have bought any!

Still sitting on the fence. Donā€™t need to buy at absolute bottom, but donā€™t want to be too far off either. Still feels we got more to go in the coming few weeks.