How would this work if this was to happen? Would it apply for everyone of certain people who meet some criteria?
I’m much more confident now.
China has seen its peak. We can also learn from Italy. I think this will peak on new cases or death at the latest by mid April for UK. I think you will see cases slow across the world and markets will jump 15% or so as people then wait and assess what damage this has done economically. The earnings reports and quarter reports of the big companies will be key.
See the graphs and stats here:
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I’m encouraged to see some good news but so much uncertainty still. Italy death tally has now surpassed china’s and hasn’t started to decline yet. How long have they been trying to lock down?
Italy’s death was about 10% lower today than yesterday. So if that continues they have reached their peak. We will see. I think the isolation takes 2 or 3 weeks to kick in so Italy should be seeing that over the next week.
Hopefully we do see the flattening soon. The problem with all of this is tbh the lack of credible sources. New York Times says one thing, BBC says something else. Headline on BBC today was they posted a record number of deaths and a number of news outlets are carrying a version of the below graphs.
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I think, if possible, it is better to try to zoom out from the day to day noise and focus on the trend. On those two graphs the trend is up, the details will be an estimate - after all it is only a sample of the population that is being tested. In a few days, if the trend has shifted it should be noticeable.
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The shortest peak-to-trough bear market ever was 45 days with the average being closer to 1 year. We are 30 days in right now after the largest global demand shock perhaps in history.
Seems reasonable to wait.
Then look at the correlation between unemployment claims and recessions (ie the grey bars):
With US unemployment at historical lows during a massive demand shock, which way is it likely to go? This mornings unemployment claims numbers should have give you a clue, and it’s forecast to be much worse in weeks to come.
People think because they see the trajectory for corona based on other countries experience that we’re out of the woods. The health crisis may subside soon, the economic damage is yet to unfold.
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Only the first graph will be something resembling an estimate!
The deaths graph is rock solid figures. You can’t estimate deaths.
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Ahem, point taken…
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I fear the economic damage will persist in 2021 with the sovereign debt crisis in countries with high debt to GDP, followed by a new wave of austerity. And we didn’t even got out of the old one.
If there’s anything I want to be wrong about this is it
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I didn’t say things will be rosy anytime soon. I just wanted to say I believe that there will be a recovery soon. Already none of us expected China’s deaths to dry up. We all thought they’d be tens of thousands. Who thought Italy would have more deaths than China? I always thought it would never be as bad as so many said. I have high hopes from the data I see that it won’t be millions of death and so far we are around 10,000. With Spring on the way the possibility of this remaining under 100,000 is a distinct possibility and many of these lives, each one precious of course, were highly likely to pass away within 2 or 3 years anyway.
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I agree with you. I’m hopeful that the “good outcome” numbers of deaths the UK government mentioned yesterday don’t materialise in anywhere near the numbers.
We take one day at a time but the important thing is to make sure people realise even though they don’t have symptoms, that’s not a green light for them to flout the social distancing rules and possibly pass it on to someone that can be really affected by it.
You can’t tell what underlying issues someone may have.
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Has China seen its peak, talk now of a second wave imminent. Their Government has often been economical with the truth and with this virus makes it moreso. Likewise Turkey, now only reporting 3 deaths… really?! Bordered with Iran… need I say more! I lived in Turkey for 8 years and for those who don’t know the Turkish Government controls the media, very often there are blackouts as I myself experienced unless use of a VPN. If anyone is qualified to have an opinion or make a comment on Turkey, having previously owned property and had investments there, I am. I’m with @Wulfy on this in that there is way too much conflicting info out there on the numbers affected and indeed deaths.
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Very naughty.
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Please stay at home if you can and practise social distancing
New York and now California:
(Source - Bloomberg - Are you a robot?)
Do what Arnie says:
The entire state and one of the largest economies in the world.
You can go for walks.
Pennsylvania earlier Thursday ordered all “non life-saving businesses” to close across the state.
It’s starting.
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Deaths are now 2k a day and rising. The US and many countries like Brazil are still not locked down.
I see spring break as a massive transmission vector back to parents at home, all those young people partying are going to infect each other and then their family later when they are home. Eventually this will hit states like Florida hardest and it is probably too late for the US now to contain it - California and NY are the only states taking it seriously soon enough and even there some are defying the ban. Some leadership is required and won’t be forthcoming, all we get from Trump is it’s not my fault and superlative soup.
I agree it will pass (hopefully far less than 1 million dead) but I fear the economic impact will be bad because an extended lockdown is now required. Layoffs are gathering pace too and will spread from travel, retail etc to industries currently unaffected worldwide.
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Cineworld starting layoffs.
Although they may have jumped the gun:
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